Paige Bueckers’ Strongest Matchup Would Be Wings’ Worst Playoff Draw

The Dallas Wings secured their spot in the 2026 WNBA postseason with their win against the Portland Fire on Tuesday night. This marks the first time Dallas has advanced to the playoffs since 2023, which means it's the first time star guard Paige Bueckers will be playing in the postseason.

There's still a lot to get ironed out regarding playoff seeding, and the Wings could technically end the season as the league's No. 2 seed (although that's unlikely).

What's for sure is that Dallas will want to avoid the No. 8-seed at all costs, given what the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx have done to them this year.

Dallas is 0-4 against Minnesota this season. One of these losses was by four points, one was by eight, one was a 13-point defeat, and the other was by 24 points.

Fascinatingly, the Lynx are the team Paige Bueckers has performed best against this season. She has averaged 24.5 points per game against them in Dallas' four losses, which is 3.8 points per game more than any other playoff team.

Bueckers' 59.0% field goal percentage against the Lynx is almost eight percentage points higher than her second-best field-goal percentage against a playoff team (which is 51.1% against the Indiana Fever), and her 50.0% three-point percentage against Minnesota is the second-most among playoff opponents.

Still, as good as Bueckers has played against the Lynx this season—which could be partially owed to her being a Minnesota native—she and Dallas will not have to face them in the first round.

Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers (5) in action | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Wings Will Want Aces If They Must Face a Top-Three Seed

Again, there's likely still movement to come within the WNBA standings. But as it currently stands, the top three seeds are the Lynx, the Golden State Valkyries at No. 2, and the Las Vegas Aces at No. 3.

Given that the Wings are the eighth seed right now, they're most likely to be somewhere between seed No. 6 and No. 8, which could potentially match them up against one of these three top seeds.

Dallas would probably prefer facing the Aces. They're 0-3 against the Valkyries, meaning they're 0-7 combined against Golden State and Minnesota. Against Las Vegas, however, they're 2-1, including one very impressive 30-point win on June 15.

Granted, June 15 was a long time ago, and both teams look a lot different. But at least the Wings have reason to believe they can beat the Aces' roster this season, while the same can't be said for the Valkyries or the Lynx.

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