Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner Before Draw
Forty-eight teams will contest the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup, but only a handful harbor genuine ambitions of clinching the fabled golden trophy.
Argentina aim to become the first nation since Brazil in 1962 to defend the World Cup but La Albiceleste will face immense competition for the title. A band of European behemoths, South American titans and surprise dark horses will push them to their limit.
Predicting next summer’s champion is incredibly tricky, especially prior to Friday’s group stage draw, but the Opta supercomputer has taken on the unenviable task of tipping the competition’s next victor.
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Supercomputer Predicts Ten Most Likely World Cup Winners
Argentina will be many people’s World Cup favorites. The reigning champions boast the knowhow and quality to conquer the globe once more, not to mention that Lionel Messi is still conjuring up his trademark magic in blue and white. However, Opta does not even have the South American giants in their top three of most likely winners.
Spain are given the tag of favorites by the supercomputer, which has offered them a 17% chance of scooping soccer’s ultimate prize. It’s tough to look beyond Luis de la Fuente’s smooth operators, who are European champions and extremely well-balanced. From their deep reserve of delightful midfielders to their world class forward line, there are simply no weaknesses in their roster.
France are not far behind La Roja, however, having been handed a 14.1% chance of securing a third World Cup crown. The 2018 champions and 2022 runners-up are guaranteed to be there or thereabouts come crunch time, with Kylian Mbappé primed to secure his second world title after triumphing at just 19 years old.
Perennial underachievers England are next up. Opta evidently has enormous faith in Thomas Tuchel to end 60 years of anguish next summer, with the Three Lions handed an 11.8% chance of finally following up their sole victory in 1966. They certainly have the squad to go all the way.
Then we move down to Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina at 8.7% as they eye a fourth title and a second in North America having tasted glory at the 1978 championships in Mexico. They breezed to the top spot in CONMEBOL qualification and will select a similar squad to the one that won in Qatar, meaning there’s no reason they can’t repeat the feat.
Germany’s inconsistencies make them outsiders for the trophy but they’re given a 7.1% chance, while Portugal, led by Cristiano Ronaldo at his final World Cup, sit just below at 6.6%. It wouldn’t be that surprising if either won the title, but they are certainly not favorites.
Brazil have also won the World Cup in North America, claiming the crown in Mexico in 1970, but have just a 5.6% chance according to the supercomputer—even with Carlo Ancelotti leading a star-studded squad into battle. The Seleção, much like Germany and Portugal, would not be shock victors, but their recent performances at major tournaments suggest the title will be tough to attain.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Netherlands, who have never won the tournament, are given a 5.2% chance. They did reach the semis at Euro 2024 but only made the last eight in Qatar and failed to even qualify for the 2018 competition.
Erling Haaland’s supreme sharpshooting gives Norway a 2.3% chance of pulling off a mighty upset, while Luis Díaz’s Colombia are the tenth most likely individual nation at 2.0%. It’s worth noting that Opta consider there to be a 3.7% chance of one of the playoff winners triumphing in North America, but that will mainly be down to the presence of Italy in the European playoffs.
Nation | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
Spain | 17.0% |
France | 14.1% |
England | 11.8% |
Argentina | 8.7% |
Germany | 7.1% |
Portugal | 6.6% |
Brazil | 5.6% |
Netherlands | 5.2% |
Norway | 2.3% |
Colombia | 2.0% |
How Will the Host Nations Fare?
Despite their disastrous form since their Gold Cup win last summer, Mexico are given the best odds of winning the World Cup among the host nations. Their 1.3% chance is reflective of what an astonishing upset it would be if El Tri clinched the crown, especially given they have never made it beyond the quarterfinals previously.
The USMNT is slightly ahead of Mexico in FIFA’s world rankings but the supercomputer gives the Stars and Stripes just a 0.9% chance of glory. They are below the likes of Morocco, Ecuador and Japan in Opta’s estimations, with little expected of Mauricio Pochettino’s side when it comes to the latter stages of the competition.
Canada have just a 0.4% chance, less than Austria, Senegal and the Ivory Coast, and there is little surprise there. Their appearance at the 2022 World Cup was only their second ever and their first since 1986. They have lost all three group games on both past entries.
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