Aces vs. Mercury Betting Prediction - Las Vegas seeks 6th straight victory
The Las Vegas Aces (19-14) are playing their best basketball of the season as they look to extend their winning streak to six games on Friday night.
The Aces travel to PHX Arena to battle the Phoenix Mercury (19-12) in a huge WNBA Western Conference tilt at 10:00 p.m. ET on ION.
MATCHUP NOTES
It took three tries this season, but the Aces finally knocked off the defending champion New York Liberty, 83-77 on Wednesday.
Las Vegas covered as three-point favorites, as the Aces improved to 4-1 against the spread during this five-game hot streak. Center A'ja Wilson converted only three field goal attempts, but made 11 free throws to finish with 17 points for the Aces.
The star of the night for Las Vegas was guard Jewell Loyd, who drilled five 3-pointers and led the Aces with 21 points off the bench.
COLD-BLOODED 🐍😤
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 14, 2025
♠️ 21 PTS
♠️ 5-9 3PM
♠️ 58% FG@jewellloyd // #ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/plD7yUvbAS
The Mercury had their three-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 74-66 home defeat to the red-hot Atlanta Dream. The 66-point output is the lowest amount of points that Phoenix has scored at home this season.
Phoenix has cashed the Under in four consecutive games, as the Mercury have held three of those opponents to less than 67 points.
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The road team has won each of the two matchups this season between the Aces and Mercury.
Phoenix grabbed a 76-70 triumph at Michelob ULTRA Arena on June 25, covering as 4.5-point favorites. Wilson missed the game in concussion protocol as the Aces were held to 36% shooting from the floor.
Mercury All-Star forward Satou Sabally scored 22 points as Phoenix picked up its second win in the last nine matchups with Las Vegas.
The Aces got back on track in the next matchup in Phoenix two weeks later. Las Vegas rallied after trailing by six points through 10 minutes to defeat Phoenix, 84-81 as six-point underdogs. Wilson was the difference maker, scoring a game-high 26 points for the Aces.
FIRST QUARTER TRENDS
Las Vegas is riding an 11-2 Over run in the first quarter in the last 13 games. On the road, the Aces are 4-2 to the Over in the opening 10 minutes in the past six away from Michelob ULTRA Arena.
The Mercury have hit the first quarter Under in 10 of 16 home games. Phoenix yielded 22 points in the first quarter against Connecticut and Indiana before giving up 24 to Atlanta on Sunday.
Each of the first two matchups finished Under the total with 40 and 36 combined points. Friday's first quarter total is set at 41.5 points.
BETTING OUTLOOK
DraftKings has opened the Mercury as 4.5-point favorites and the total at 167 points.
Each of the first two matchups finished Under the total of 164 and 168.5 points.
Las Vegas owns the best defensive effective field goal percentage on the road this season in the WNBA at 47.8%. On the other side, Phoenix ranks second in that same category at home, yielding 46.7%.
Let's look for another low-scoring game in this critical Western Conference battle in Phoenix.
BEST BET: Aces/Mercury Under 167
Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.