Aces vs. Mercury Betting Prediction - Las Vegas shoots for 9th straight win
The race for second place in the Western Conference of the WNBA is getting tight down the stretch.
The Las Vegas Aces (22-14) are riding an eight-game winning streak as they welcome in the Phoenix Mercury (21-13) on Thursday night.
The two West rivals will break the tie for second place at Michelob ULTRA Arena at 10:00 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
MATCHUP NOTES
The Aces are the hottest team in the league over the last 11 games, posting a 10-1 record. The most recent victory came in Tuesday's 74-72 triumph over the Atlanta Dream, who entered the night with the best record in the Eastern Conference.
Aces' All-Star center A'ja Wilson continued her recent domination with 32 points and 12 rebounds in the Atlanta win. Wilson is averaging 29.0 points and 14.4 rebounds per game in the last five victories.
The M’V3 doing what the M’V3 does 💅✨@_ajawilson22 continues to get it done on both ends of the floor.
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 21, 2025
1st in total points
1st in player efficiency rating
1st in win shares
1st in offensive win shares
1st in total rebounds
1st in blocks per game
3rd in total steals
4th in… pic.twitter.com/sYjsYqfhIl
During this eight-game winning streak, the Aces are 6-1-1 against the spread, pushing as two-point favorites against the Dream.
The Mercury erased a 12-point halftime deficit to rally past the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday, 98-91. Phoenix outscored Golden State, 51-32 in the second half as guard Kahleah Copper led the Mercury with 25 points.
Phoenix has won five of its last seven games since suffering a 23-point blowout at Atlanta on August 3.
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
The road team has captured all three matchups as this is the final regular season meeting between these squads.
Phoenix knocked off Las Vegas at Michelob ULTRA Arena, 76-70 on June 15 as 4.5-point favorites. The Aces shot 36% from the floor and played without Wilson, who was sidelined in concussion protocol.
In the next matchup in Phoenix on June 29, the Aces rallied for an 84-81 triumph as six-point underdogs. Wilson scored 26 points and pulled down 18 rebounds, while Phoenix All-Star forward Satou Sabally was held to 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting.
These teams met last Friday in Arizona and the Aces pulled out an 86-83 victory as 4.5-point underdogs. Wilson knocked down 14 free throws and posted 30 points, while Sabally put up 26 points in the defeat for the Mercury.
FIRST QUARTER TRENDS
Las Vegas has gotten off to slow starts during this winning streak. The Aces are 1-4 in the first quarter in the last five games, while compiling a 3-5 mark in the past eight home contests in the opening 10 minutes.
The Mercury have slumped to a 6-9-2 road record in the first quarter, including a 3-7 mark since the start of July.
All three matchups finished Under the total in the first quarter with an average combined number of points being 36 points in each opening period.
BETTING OUTLOOK
DraftKings has opened the Aces as 1.5-point home favorites with a total of 169 points.
The Mercury have turned a slight profit in the underdog role at 7-5 against the spread. This marks the first time in four matchups that Phoenix is not listed as a favorite.
Phoenix's only win over Las Vegas came with Wilson sidelined, while leading with less than five minutes remaining in each of the two losses.
Let's back the Mercury here as a short underdog to end the Aces' winning streak.
BEST BET: Mercury (+1.5)
Kevin has spent the last 15 years in the sports gambling space. He covered all major sports at VegasInsider both as a writer and handicapper from 2009 until 2024. He has also covered college basketball and MLB for the Action Network.