Game Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream

The Mercury are facing a tough test in their first game after the All-Star break. The Atlanta Dream are one of the best teams in the league, better than their record suggests.

July 11, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Atlanta Dream center Brittney Griner (42) rebounds the ball during a game against the Indiana Fever at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Grace Smith/INDIANAPOLIS STAR-Imagn Images / Grace Smith/INDIANAPOLIS STAR-Imagn Images

Tonight, the Phoenix Mercury take on the Atlanta Dream in a matchup between two of the WNBA's best teams. The Mercury are 15-7, second in the Western Conference, while the Dream are 13-10, second in the East. This game will also see the emotional return of Brittney Griner -- the Mercury's second-leading scorer in franchise history and 2014 champion -- to Phoenix for the first time since her departure in the offseason.

Though the Mercury have a better record and home court advantage, the Dream are not an opponent to be overlooked. They're better than their record suggests; Atlanta is fourth in the WNBA in net rating, with the fourth-best offense and sixth-best defense in the league.

Atlanta's a bit like Phoenix last year in that they set out to shoot tons of threes and play at a fast pace, but haven't quite managed both -- they shoot the third-most threes in the league league, but they play with the fourth-slowest pace, a stark contrast from the Mercury, who play at the second-quickest tempo in the W.

Unlike last year's Mercury, however, Atlanta has been dominant inside the arc. They're the best rebounding team in basketball and they protect the ball as well. The combination of the league's fourth-best offensive rebounding rate and third-lowest turnover rate means they win the possession battle more often than not. They also attempt 21 free throws a night, a sign of their willingness to aggressively drive into the paint.

They'll be playing without Rhyne Howard, their second-leading scorer, who puts pressure on opposing defenses with nearly 10 three-point attempts per game. Allisha Gray, an All-Star, leads the team in scoring with 18.6 points per game. Griner is fifth in scoring, at a career-low 10.2 points per game, but could see more work in this game without Howard on the court.

The Dream will trot out a starting lineup of Gray, Griner, Brionna Jones, Maya Caldwell, and Jordin Canada, a strong group, but one a bit light on outside shooting. Of those five, only Gray is shooting better than 30% from deep on the season. If Phoenix can pack the paint and keep Gray from getting hot, the Dream may need to turn to rookie guard Te-Hina PaoPao, shooting a scorching 47.2% from beyond the arc, to help open up space for their interior scorers.

Phoenix, on the other hand, could be getting Kahleah Copper, Satou, Sabally, and Lexi Held back, as all three are off the injury report. They'll still be without starting point guard Monique Akoa Makani, but this will be the most depth they've had in a while.

It will be an interesting matchup, and if Phoenix can crank up the pace and protect their own defensive glass well enough to neutralize Atlanta's size advantage on the interior, they could walk away with win number 16.

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