Mercury Vs Lynx Series Preview

Can the Mercury beat the league's best team and earn a trip to the Finals?

Jul 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) works around Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) in the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury's reward for knocking out the defending WNBA champions is a series against last year's other finalists. Beating the Minnesota Lynx will be a tall task. They have the best defense in the league and the best offense.

They've been first in the standings all year. They swept their first-round series and will kick things off at home after plenty of rest, while the Mercury will have had less than 48 hours since their last game against the New York Liberty. It is, however, doable, if the Mercury can play their best ball.

The Lynx finished the regular season with an outstanding 34-10 record and cruised to the one-seed. They're led by Napheesa Collier, a clear-cut MVP candidate who just posted 53-40-90 shooting splits for an entire season.

Though the Mercury only won one of their four regular season matchups, Alyssa Thomas was right in saying that the Lynx haven't faced Phoenix at full strength. Given how many key players were absent in the previous games between the two teams, there are a lot of unknowns here. Let's take a look at how they match up.

Jul 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Phoenix Mercury forward Kathryn Westbeld (24) works around Minnesota Lynx forward Jessica Shepard (15) in the second quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Current form

The Lynx were blowing teams out left and right for the bulk of the season before cooling off a bit after an injury kept Collier out for an extended period. Still, that wasn't nearly enough for them to lose the top spot in the standings, and the supporting cast was more than enough to not only keep them afloat, but to keep the wins piling up. Their only real rough patch came in late August, where they lost three of five, but they were all to playoff teams. There was a bit of an adjustment period after Collier returned but it's mostly been business as usual.

The stars

The Lynx revolve around Collier, their one big superstar, but this team is loaded, and several of their players could put up bigger numbers on worse teams. While only three players -- Collier, plus Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams -- average double-digit points, it's worth noting that seven players scored at least eight a night this year. It's a free-flowing, egalitarian offense where everybody can get theirs on any given night.

Their top three scorers are all ultra-efficient (all three shoot at least 38.9% from three) and they're all capable playmakers (they all average at least three a night and Williams is second in the league in assists, behind only Thomas). McBride is particularly dangerous. She is, simply put, one of the very best shooters in the league, and she can heat up at any moment.

Sep 17, 2025; San Jose, California, USA; Minnesota Lynx forward Alanna Smith (8) fouls Golden State Valkyries guard Veronica Burton (22) in the third quarter in game two of round one for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at SAP Center. Mandatory Credit: David Gonzales-Imagn Images / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The role players

While Alanna Smith averages under 9.6 points and 5.1 rebounds a game, calling her a role player is underselling her impact. She's the co-Defensive Player of the Year, the anchor of the league's best unit. Natisha Heideman is an excellent, versatile guard off the bench, and Jessica Shepard is shooting a ridiculous 63.8% from the field this year. Unfortunately for the Lynx, they'll be without DiJonai Carrington in the series, as she's out with an injury.

Offense

The Minnesota offense has been ridiculous this year. They shot 47.2% from the field as a team and 37.8% from three, both league-leading marks. They're first in the league in assists by far, a testament to their array of playmakers and their well-run offensive system. They're even third-to-last in turnovers, a rarity for a team that passes the ball so much, and first in assist-to-turnover ratio. And they're able to execute their offense just fine in the playoffs, when things slow down -- they were that good on offense all year despite playing at the league's fourth-slowest pace.

Stopping the Lynx from scoring will be a pain, but Phoenix is one of the teams better equipped to handle it. The Lynx don't have the kind of drastic size advantage that sometimes gives the Mercury trouble (their frontcourt of Collier, at 6'1" and Smith, at 6'4" is actually an inch shorter than the Mercury's starting bigs, in total) and they're not an especially great team on the offensive glass.

Thomas and Satou Sabally are both solid matchups for Collier, too, particularly Thomas. Still, it's hard to turn them over and Phoenix will need to find ways to force the Lynx to cough up the ball if they're going to have offensive success on the other end, because...

Sep 14, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Lynx guard Kayla McBride (21) celebrates making a three point shot against the Golden State Valkyries in the first half during game one of round one for the 2025 WNBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Defense

The Lynx held opponents to just 42.3% shooting for the year and conceded the fewest free throw attempts in the entire league. Just like on the other end of the floor, there are very few mistakes for opponents to capitalize on. They also force the second-most turnovers in the league, and ball security is an area where the Mercury have had a few lapses this year.

The Mercury may be able to find some success by crashing the offensive glass. The Lynx are actually among the league's weaker teams in defensive rebounding, which could be huge because they give up so few points in the paint in general. They're also in the middle of the pack in terms of protecting the three-point line. If the Mercury can generate extra possessions with offensive boards from players like Thomas, Sabally, and Natasha Mack, they could find ways to keep their offense on track.

Jul 16, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier (24) defends against Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas (25) in the first quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Prediction

While the Lynx have been dominant this year, they're not unbeatable. The Mercury have one of the league's few defensive units that can match up with the Lynx and may be able to throw a wrench in their well-oiled machine with their physicality and intensity. The series could get off to a rough start, as the Mercury will have little rest at the beginning, but they should be able to compete over the course of the series.

Phoenix should be able to find success at home -- the Golden State Valkyries nearly extended their series against Minnesota at home in Game 2 -- but it'll ultimately come down to whether or not the Mercury can steal one in Minneapolis. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Phoenix improves as the series goes on and wins it in five.

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