Breaking Down the NCAA Tournament Path For Indiana Women's Basketball
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – It's tournament time for coach Teri Moren and the Hoosiers.
Indiana enters postseason play with a 24-5 record, including a third-place finish in the Big Ten regular season standings and a quarterfinal exit in the conference tournament. That was enough for a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, which means Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall is a host site for the opening weekend.
The journey begins with a Round of 64 matchup against No. 13 seed Fairfield at 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday. On paper, Fairfield doesn't look like the others on its seed line. The Stags enter this matchup with a 31-1 record – their only loss all the way back on Nov. 12 at Vanderbilt by three points in the third game of the season. The other 13 seeds have between six and 12 losses, but Fairfield ranks 221st in strength of schedule.
Fairfield's record is a result of holding teams to just 54.1 points per game, the fifth-best mark in the country. Opponents shoot an awful 35.6% from the field and 27.6% from 3-point range and lose the rebounding margin to Fairfield by 5.5 per game. Indiana is on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to 3-point shooting, as it leads the nation at 40.2%.
The Stags are led in scoring by 6-foot-1 freshman Meghan Anderson, whose position is listed as "Road Runner" on the Fairfield roster. According to MidMajorMadness.com, "the offensive style and fast pace that the Stags play at don’t call for typical post players. It requires players capable of running the floor, rebounding, and defending multiple positions." That's the Road Runner.
Indiana's All-American forward Mackenzie Holmes is a traditional post player, and she could be challenged by Fairfield to defend on the perimeter and run the floor more than most opponents have. But the other four Hoosiers in the starting lineup can handle the ball and shoot from the outside, making them capable of handling Fairfield's style of play.
The Hoosiers are favored by 25.5 points against Fairfield, according to FanDuel. Should they advance, the winner of No. 5 seed Oklahoma and No. 12 seed Florida Gulf Coast will be waiting in the Round of 32 on Monday, officially final game at Assembly Hall this season.
Oklahoma won the Big 12 regular season title with a 15-3 record, but the Sooners lost to Iowa State in the conference tournament semifinals. They enter the NCAA Tournament with a 22-9 overall record. The Sooners doesn't shoot the three well, 31.7%, but they still rank 24th nationally with 76.8 points per game.
Oklahoma is led in scoring by 6-foot forward Sylar Vann, who averages 14.7 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. After running into some trouble in nonconference play and losing five games before the new year, Oklahoma rattled off 12 wins in 13 games in the heart of Big 12 play. The Sooners' defense has faltered in their last two losses, allowing 83 points to Kansas on March 2 and 85 to Iowa State on March 11.
Florida Gulf Coast has a 29-4 record, which means the 12 and 13 seeds in Indiana's regions have the fewest losses compared to others on those seed lines. FGCU's defense ranks ninth nationally in fewest points allowed per game, 54.5, and 5-foot-6 junior guard Emani Jefferson leads them at 16.1 points per game.
Oklahoma is a modest 7.5-point favorite over Florida Gulf Coast, so an upset could be brewing in Indiana's favor. That's where the Hoosiers slipped up last season as a No. 1 seed, losing to No. 9 seed Miami (FL) 70-68 at Assembly Hall.
The two previous seasons, though, Moren led Indiana to the Sweet 16 in 2022 as a No. 3 seed and the Elite Eight in 2021 as a No. 4 seed. Those represent the two deepest NCAA Tournament runs in program history. At Indiana's preseason media day in September, Moren stated belief in her team's ability to build on previous tournament runs.
“We've tasted it, if you will. We know what it takes to get there," Moren said. "There's no question we have everything we need in order to be able to do that, to win a national championship."
Should Indiana return to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons, it would likely face the nation's top overall seed, South Carolina. That game would be played in Albany, N.Y.
Coached by Dawn Staley, the Gamecocks enter the NCAA Tournament unblemished at 32-0. They withstood a few scares in the SEC Tournament, beating LSU and Tennessee by single digits and needing a last-second shot to down the Volunteers. But throughout the regular season, South Carolina routinely beat teams by 20-plus points and even won seven games by 40 or more.
South Carolina is led by 6-foot-7 center Kamilla Cardoso, who averaged 14 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, while shooting 58.4% from the field. The Gamecocks have five other players that average nine or more points, and they rank fourth nationally at 86.1 points per game, thanks to the third-highest 3-point percentage, 39.7. Defensively, South Carolina is 25th in the nation, allowing just 56.3 points per game.
If Indiana were to pull off that upset and hand South Carolina its first and only loss of the season, an Elite Eight matchup could come against in-state foe No. 2 seed Notre Dame (26-6) or No. 3 Oregon State (24-7).
Notre Dame finished in a three-way tie for second place in the ACC regular season standings, one game behind conference champion Virginia Tech. But the Fighting Irish won the ACC Tournament and enter the Big Dance on an eight-game wins streak. Oregon State finished fourth in a loaded Pac-12, including No. 1 seed USC and two No. 2 seeds in Stanford and UCLA.
To summarize, following highest seed, Indiana has this path to its first Final Four in program history: No. 13 seed Fairfield, No. 5 seed Oklahoma, No. 1 seed South Carolina, No. 2 seed Notre Dame.
A trip to the championship game could require going through No. 1 seed Texas or No. 2 seed Stanford in the Final Four in Cleveland. The other side of the bracket includes No. 1 seeds Iowa and USC, plus No. 2 seeds UCLA and Ohio State. Here's the full bracket.
Here's the full 2024 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament bracket.
ncaa.com
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