#3 Michigan vs. #10 Penn State Prediction, Picks & Odds for 11/11 on FOX
The Penn State Nittany Lions will host the Michigan Wolverines for a noon kickoff this Saturday at Beaver Stadium with major implications on the line for the College Football Playoffs. Penn State already lost at Ohio State three weeks ago, so they must win on Saturday if they want any shot at the CFB Playoffs, while Michigan enters Saturday’s matchup with a perfect 9-0 record. Although the Wolverines are the higher-ranked team, I think the Nittany Lions have a great shot at pulling off the upset, so I made a Michigan vs. Penn State prediction.
I’ve gone 5-3 this season with my Penn State football picks, and although I lost my Penn State vs. Maryland prediction, I nailed my best bets in the Indiana, UMASS, West Virginia, Illinois and Iowa contests. Keep reading to see the reasoning behind my Michigan vs. Penn State best bets, which you can fade or follow to unlock a $150 new-user bonus from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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MICHIGAN VS. PENN STATE PREDICTION: Over 44.5 (-130 at FanDuel)
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction for Saturday's Big Ten Matchup, 11/11
There are plenty of variables to consider for my Michigan vs. Penn State prediction heading into Saturday, as there's considerable uncertainty surrounding this Michigan team. The Wolverines are undeniably a strong squad (#2 in the latest CFB Playoff Rankings), but their strength of schedule ranks 111th in the country. Saturday’s game is their first true test of the season, so all eyes will be on Happy Valley.
QB J.J. McCarthy appears to have significantly improved compared to last season. So far, Michigan has been taking early leads and dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage to secure convincing wins in Big Ten matchups. Jim Harbaugh's team has excelled in all aspects of the game, especially on offense, where they rank second in EPA per play and fourth in early downs EPA. They'll be going up against a Penn State defense ranking within the top five in multiple metrics, but I think the Wolverines will be able to move the ball.
However, Saturday's game is their biggest test to date, and although Penn State's offense looked lackluster against Ohio State, QB Drew Allar showed his playmaking ability in the fourth quarter against Indiana and last week against Maryland. Allar completed 75% of his passes and tallied four TDs through the air, and PSU's passing attack looked as good as it has all season. WRs KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Dante Cephas, and TEs Tyler Warren and Theo Johnson combined for 218 receiving yards and four TDs in a performance that made the Nittany Lions look like a legit College Football Playoff contender.
Michigan vs. Penn State Best Bets & Expert Picks
Although there could be some uncertainty on how these offenses will perform against elite defenses, my main Michigan vs. Penn State prediction is for the game to finish with Over 44.5 points (-130 at FanDuel). Big Ten matchups aren't known for points, but the two teams have a combined 9-1 record to the over in their last five games. Additionally, Michigan put up over 500 yards of total offense and scored 41 points against the Penn State defense last season, and that unit was nearly as strong as this year's team.
Furthermore, I truly think Penn State can keep this game close and pull off an upset. Yes, the offense looked rattled against Ohio State, but James Franklin should’ve learned from that game, and I think he will lean on RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen early in the contest. If the Nittany Lions can control the line of scrimmage, the play-action should open up for Allar, and he has the ability to exploit the Wolverines secondary. As good as Michigan has been, they’re just 2-3 in their last five trips to Happy Valley, and the home team is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
This is the best chance Franklin has to make a final four-team CFB Playoff, and I anticipate a rocking environment at Beaver Stadium. If Penn State grabs an early lead and the crowd gets going, the Wolverines could easily suffer their first loss of the season. Therefore, the second one of my Michigan vs. Penn State picks is on the Nittany Lions ML (+175 at FanDuel).
How to Earn an Additional $150 Bonus & More at FanDuel Sportsbook if Penn State Wins
I gave two Michigan vs. Penn State best bets so that you can choose which prediction you want to fade or follow. However, if you want to earn $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel Sportsbook, you must use my Michigan vs. Penn State prediction related to PSU’s money line. Here’s how you can unlock the bonus:
- CLICK HERE to activate your new account; no FanDuel promo code is required
- Deposit $5+ and add in the money line selection related to my Michigan vs. Penn State picks
- Wager $5 on Penn State ML (+175 at FanDuel) or any other team’s money line this week
After risking $5, sit back and enjoy the action. If Penn State pulls off the upset, you’ll receive $8.75 in profits + an additional $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel. All you have to do is place a $5 winning money line wager to earn your welcome boost.
If you’d rather back a big money line favorite instead of Penn State, I’d recommend risking $5 on James Madison ML (-3500 at FanDuel) against UConn, as they have the shortest money line odds this week.
Michigan vs. Penn State Odds & Betting Lines at FanDuel for Saturday, November 11th, 2023
Here are the latest Michigan vs. Penn State odds at FanDuel Sportsbook heading into Saturday:
- Point Spread: Michigan -4.5 (-115) vs. Penn State +4.5 (-105)
- Money Line: Michigan (-215) vs. Penn State (+175)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 45.5 (-105) vs. Under 45.5 (-115)
If you risk $100 on Penn State ML (+175 at FanDuel), you’ll earn $175 of profits if they pull off the upset, while a $215 bet on Michigan ML profits $100 if they remain undefeated. Remember, you need to risk at least $5 on a winning money line pick to earn $150 in bonus bets from FanDuel. You can use my Michigan vs. Penn State prediction or any other money line pick to unlock the bonus!
Penn State Injury Report vs. Michigan
Penn State’s injury situation appears to be optimistic heading into Saturday, as the Nittany Lions faced Maryland last weekend without DEs Chop Robinson and Amin Vanover. However, both players traveled with the team, and James Franklin said that ‘the opportunity and the possibility to have both of those guys back this week will be significant’, so it appears both players will try to play against Michigan.
This is a huge boost to Penn State’s front seven, as Michigan ran for 418 yards in last year’s win against the Nittany Lions, and I expect Manny Diaz to stack the box early. That way, he will force J.J. McCarthy to beat the Nittany Lions secondary, and I’m confident that they can stand tall on Saturday.
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