Draftmetrics

More on Trades

DRAFTMETRICS MORE ON TRADES

A recent Draftmetrics article reviewed situations where teams traded up or down in the draft. In this article, activity in trading players for draft choices will be examined. In contrast to trading draft choices, it is difficult to analyze player trades in any kind of analytical framework. It is interesting, though, to look at recent player trades and outcomes with the benefit of at least a degree of hindsight. Ten major trades are reviewed in the remainder of this article.

1. In 2020, the Vikings traded Stefan Diggs and a 7th round selection to the Bills in exchange for a first round pick (#22), a 5th round pick (#155), a 6th round pick (#201) and a 4th round pick (#134) in the 2021 draft.

Here’s what the Vikings did with their picks:

The Bills drafted Dane Jackson with their 7^th round selection and he became a starter in 2022. Camryn Bynum became a starter for the Vikings in 2022. None of the other three players drafted by the Vikings with the acquired selections did anything noteworthy.

Outcome: Win-win; both sides had to be satisfied with this trade. The Bills and the Vikings each ended up with an exceptional wide receiver and a contributing defensive back.

1. In 2019, the Jaguars traded Jalen Ramsey to the Rams for a 1st round selection (#19) in 2020, a 1st round pick (#25) in 2021 and a 4th round pick (#121) in 2021.

The Jaguars used their selections to take K’Lavon Chaisson, Travis Etienne and Jordan Smith.

Outcome: Advantage Rams. Ramsey made the Pro Bowl three times. Chaisson has started 11 games over three seasons and has seen his playing time decrease each year. Etienne was a solid addition. Smith played one season.

1. In 2020, the 49ers traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts for a 1st round pick (#13).

The 49ers traded selection #13 plus a 7^th round for a 1st round pick (#14) and a 4^th round pick (#117). The 49ers drafted Javon Kinlaw and used the 4^th rounder as part of a package to move up and take Brandon Aiyuk in the 1^st round.

Outcome: Advantage Colts. Buckner has been a good acquisition, making All Pro one season. Kinlaw has been hampered by injury but has shown promise. Aiyuk has been a solid contributor.

1. In 2019, Dolphins traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers for a 2020 1st round pick (#118) and a 2021 6th round selection (#207).

The Dolphins selected Austin Jackson with the 1^st round pick and traded the 6^th round selection for a 7^th round pick and DeAndre Washington.

Outcome: Advantage Steelers. Fitzpatrick has been a main cog in the Steelers defense. Jackson was a day one starter but was injured in 2022. Washington was of minimal help. Fitzpatrick was public about getting out of Miami, so that may have hampered the Dolphin’s bargaining power.

1. In 2020, Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins and a 4th round pick (#131) to the Cardinals for David Johnson, a 2nd round pick (#40) and a 2021 4th round pick (#122).

Texans selected Ross Blacklock in the 2^nd round and traded the 4^th round pick as part of a package for Marcus Cannon. The Cardinals selected Rashard Lawrence with their acquired 4^th round selection.

Outcome: Advantage Cardinals. This may have been Bill O’Brien’s defining moment as a general manager. Not a popular trade among Texans fans. Hopkins caught 115 passes for the Cards in his first season but has been hampered by injury since. Lawrence has had injury issues in each of his three seasons. Johnson was okay in 2020 but has not done much since. Blacklock played two seasons and was traded for a 6^th round pick. Marcus Cannon played only one season in Houston and started four games.

1. In 2020, Washington traded Trent Williams to the 49ers for a 2020 5th round pick (#156) and a 2021 3rd round pick (#74).

Washington selected Keith Ismael in 2020 and Benjamin St-Juste in 2021.

Outcome: Advantage 49ers. Williams has been an All Pro performer. Ismael has been mostly a reserve. St-Juste was a starter in 2022.

1. In 2020, the Jets traded Jamal Adams and a 2022 4th round selection (#109) to the Seahawks for Bradley McDougald, 2021 selections in the 1st (#23), and 3rd round pick (#86) rounds and a 2022 1st round selection (#10).

The Seahawks selected Coby Bryant with their 4^th round pick. The Jets packaged the 2021 selections to move up to #13 and select Alijah Vera-Tucker. Garrett Wilson was selected with the 2022 1^st round pick.

Outcome: Tough one to call but slight edge to the Jets. Adams has a great first season with the Seahawks, setting a record for sacks by a defensive back but tailed off a bit in 2021 and was injured in 2022. Bryant was a part-time starter in 2022. Vera-Tucker was a day one starter but was injured in 2022. McDougald played half of one season for the Jets. Wilson had 83 catches as a rookie. Wilson could swing the balance in favor of the Jets.

1. In 2022 the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson and a 4th round pick (#116) to the Broncos for Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant, 2022 selections in the 1st (#9), 2nd (#40) and 5th round (#145) and 2023 selections in the 1st (#5) and 2nd rounds (#37).

The Broncos selected Eyioma Uwazurike with their selection. The Seahawks made the following picks:

Outcome: This trade is looking very lopsided right now in favor the Seahawks. Wilson had a disappointing season. Owazurike played a little. Drew Lock sat behind Geno Smith in 2022 and is now a free agent. Harris, Fant and Cross were all starters for the Seahawks and Mafe saw extensive action. This could be different if Wilson rebounds, but looking terrible for the Broncos at this point and the Seahawks still have two more early selections in the upcoming draft.

1. In 2022, the Texans traded DeShaun Watson and a 2024 6th round pick to the Browns for 2022 picks in the 1st (#13) and 4th (#107) rounds, 2023 picks in the 1st (#12) and 3rd rounds (#73) and 2024 picks In the 1st and 4th rounds.

Houston traded their 2022 1^st round pick for a 1^st (#15), 4^th (#124) and two 5^th round picks (#162 and 166), which they used to take Kenyon Green. The other selections in that draft were packaged with other picks to end up with John Metchie, Christian Harris and Thomas Booker. The 4^th round pick was used to select Dameon Pierce. More to come on the 2023 and 2024 selections.

Outcome: Hard to make a definitive call as it depends on how Watson rebounds from his suspension, but the Texans certainly win on the volume of players. Still a lot to come on this trade, both in terms of remaining draft selections and the performance of Watson and the young Seahawk players.

1. In 2022, The Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders for 1st round (#22) and 2nd round (#53) selections.

The Packers selected Quay Walker in the 1^st round and traded the #53 pick along with another 2^nd round selection to move up to #34 and take Christian Watson.

Outcome: The edge has to go to the Raiders with Adams registering 100 catches in 2022, but the Packers did get good value.