Three Bold Individual Statistical Predictions for the 2023 Jets
The bold predictions are flying as the National Football League kicks off its 2023 regular season.
There are even some bold enough to project the New York Jets as the Super Bowl LVIII champions. We aren't ready to take that step here at Jets Country, but we do have some hot takes when it comes to what to expect statistically from a few of Gang Green's key players.
In the interest of time, the list of stat-centered Jets' hot takes has been pared down to three predictions for the 104th NFL season.
The arrival of future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers has inspired two of the three statistical prognostications below.
NFL WR1
Garrett Wilson will account for Davante Adams-like production and lead the league in receiving yards.
Call it crazy, but the Jets' WR1 appears ready to take a quantum leap on his promising career path. Wilson, the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, gained 1,103 yards on 83 receptions in 2022.
In spite of the team's unstable quarterback situation, Wilson finished 15th overall on the NFL receiving yards list last year. With a four-time NFL MVP throwing the passes this season, there's real reason to believe that Wilson's production will receive a boost.
Since arriving in late April, Rodgers hasn't hesitated to compliment Wilson and his skill set. After only a handful of OTAs workouts with his new top target, Rodgers compared Wilson to veteran All-Pro Davante Adams and the quarterback has revisited that comparison on multiple occasions since.
"Davante is in a category by himself, still, but that 17 [Wilson] reminds me of the other 17, as far as his ability of getting out of breaks and his quick twitch at the line of scrimmage, for sure," said Rodgers at the start of training camp.
So, let's assume Wilson reaches his potential and puts up a season that rivals Adams's 2021 campaign with the Green Bay Packers. In their final season together, Rodgers targeted Adams 169 times. The six-time Pro Bowler totaled 123 receptions for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games.
Second Stringers Stack Sacks
Jermaine Johnson and Bryce Huff combine for 15 sacks.
Neither is listed as a starting edge rusher, but both are expected to get ample opportunity to harass opposing passers this season. The Jets employ a deep defensive line rotation with Johnson and Huff as key contributing pieces.
The statistical projection requires a significant increase from last year's output when Huff totaled 3.5 sacks and Johnson added 2.5 QB takedowns as a rookie. Both men, however, looked ready to take the next step throughout the preseason.
Johnson arrived at training camp in phenomenal physical condition and proceeded to show plenty of burst throughout the summertime practice sessions.
"I don’t know if you guys have noticed, he [Johnson] looks massive in a good way. He looks explosive, he’s very powerful," said head coach Robert Saleh in July.
While Johnson recorded sacks in preseason contests against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, Huff dropped the opposing quarterback in all four exhibition appearances.
Huff's 3.5 preseason sacks tied for third overall amongst NFL leaders. In 2022, the NFL's @NextGenStats credited Huff with applying pressure on more than 20 percent of his pass-rushing reps.
DE Bryce Huff (47)
Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK
One Over, One Under for Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers will set one single-season franchise passing record and finish just shy of another.
The future Hall-of-Fame quarterback will not join Joe Namath as the only Jets to pass for 4,000 yards in a single season. Engineering a somewhat run-heavy attack, Rodgers will finish around the 3,900-yard passing mark.
Rodgers, who has 10 career 4K seasons, threw for 3,695 yards over 17 games with the Green Bay Packers last year. With Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall in the backfield and Nathaniel Hackett holding the play sheet, the Jets will likely run more often than the league average. A successful rushing attack will only make Rodgers more dangerous through the air.
On the other hand, Gang Green is likely to rely on its redzone magician when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. It was only one preseason possession, but the Rodgers-Wilson 14-yard TD connection in the August 26 exhibition against the Giants is a likely harbinger.
Rodgers averaged 37 touchdown passes per season over a three-year span while working with Hackett in Green Bay. He will become only the second Jet ever to reach the 30-touchdown plateau, surpassing Ryan Fitzpatrick's record (31) from the 2015 campaign. Averaging 2.0 TD passes per outing, Rodgers finishes the regular season with 34 scoring strikes.
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