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Exploring Aaron Rodgers' 2023 Fantasy Value and Projected Season Totals

SI fantasy football analyst Michael Fabiano on 'what to expect' from the Jets' new starting quarterback

Aaron Rodgers followed up back-to-back NFL MVP seasons with a pedestrian statistical performance in 2022.

There are certainly reasons to explain the dip in Rodgers’ numbers last season, starting with the offseason departures of star receiver Davante Adams and trusted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

The four-time MVP was left to work with a young, inexperienced receiving corps, and it was not until mid-season when he finally developed a noticeable rapport with rookie Christian Watson.

Then, there’s the rumor that Rodgers played the second half of the year while battling a broken thumb on his throwing hand.

Even with the aforementioned constraints, the future Hall-of-Famer totaled 3,695 yards through the air to go along with 26 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. The yardage total ranked 11th overall amongst NFL passing leaders and the 26 scoring strikes were the seventh most on the circuit, a level of production that will instantly be an upgrade for the New York Jets.

Since the Rodgers-to-the-Jets rumors surfaced, fantasy football enthusiasts have attempted to determine the quarterback’s fantasy value with Gang Green.

Sports Illustrated’s Michael Fabiano placed Rodgers as QB14 in his post-Draft position-by-position fantasy rankings, and the SI senior analyst subsequently examined the quarterback’s fit with the Jets in “Here’s What Fantasy Managers Can Expect From Aaron Rodgers in 2023.”

Fabiano specifically focused on two stats for the upcoming campaign – passing yards and touchdown passes. He listed Rodgers’ player prop season totals from FanDuel, which set the over-under for passing yards at 3,950.5 and TD passes at 29.5.

Before stating his predictions, Fabiano noted, “And as we all know, a motivated Rodgers is usually a productive Rodgers.”

Factoring in Rodgers’ past production along with the quarterback’s age, Fabiano landed on one over and one under.

“The good news for Rodgers is that with 17 games on the schedule, he’ll have to average just 232.4 passing yards per game to go over the 3,950.5 mark (assuming he doesn’t miss time). While he averaged just 217.4 yards through the air last season, Rodgers averaged more than 232.4 passing yards in every other season of his NFL career as a starter.

However, I’d take the under on 29.5 touchdown passes. Remember, only Fitzpatrick has had more than 30 touchdown passes in a single season as a member of the Jets. Vinny Testaverde was close with 29 in 1998, and Namath threw for 26 touchdowns in just 14 games way back in 1967.” 

- Michael Fabiano (Read full article)

Fabiano’s projections translate into a drastic improvement for the Jets at the quarterback position. Gang Green hasn’t employed a 4,000-yard passer since Joe Willie Namath achieved the feat in 1967. In 2022, four different quarterbacks combined for 14 touchdown passes.

Despite upgrading the Jets’ offense, Rodgers likely won’t be in the running for a fifth NFL MVP award according to Fabiano.

“With a projection of around 4,000 passing yards and 25-28 touchdown passes, I have Rodgers ranked as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback heading into 2023 fantasy drafts. While I’ll no longer bet against him (like I did in 2020), I wouldn’t expect him to post MVP totals,” concluded Fabiano.


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