Predicting March Madness Most Outstanding Player According to Kalshi

Which player will emerge as the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player? A trading-focused breakdown of Kalshi probabilities, top contenders, and value positions heading into March Madness.

Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) reacts during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The madness has begun and trades are still trickling into Kalshi and Polymarket on some of the biggest events. One market drawing a ton of buzz is the “Men’s College Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player” Typically, the winner of this award is on the team that wins the tournament. So it is essential to first identify which team you think will cut down the nets before making a trade on a specific player. 

In the last 25 years, a No. 1 seed has won this tournament 18 times (72%). If you believe that historical trends matter, this tid bit of information can help us limit our options. Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are the only four teams with a double-digit probability to win the tournament, demonstrating the volatility of America’s favorite sporting event in March and April. While Florida is just hovering around 10%, Duke, Zona, and Michigan have all been in that 15-20% range over the last few days. For that reason, it may be smart to pinpoint the top player on each of those teams as the top candidates to win the Most Outstanding Player award. 

9 Players Have A 5+% implied Probability To Bring Home The Hardware

Let’s take a look at the top options to win the Men’s College Basketball Tournament Most Outstanding Player award.

Kalshi

Cameron Boozer, Duke Blue Devils (23%)

Boozer is likely to be a top-three selection in this year’s NBA Draft. If you believe Duke will cut down the nets in April, it’s hard to envision a world where Boozer doesn’t win the award. He was named the National Player of the Year by The Sporting News and is arguably the most dominant player in the country. Son of Chicago Bulls rebounding machine Carlos Boozer, Cam averaged a double-double this year with 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds.  

Only two other Blue Devils average double-digit points and while Isaiah Evans has the capacity to erupt, he won’t outshine Boozer. If Duke wins the tournament, Boozer will be crowned the Most Outstanding Player. That’s why his implied probability is the only one to eclipse 20%. 

Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan (17%)

Lendeborg is the offensive engine for the top-seeded Wolverines in the Midwest region. His two-way abilities are a major reason that Michigan is a top-five team in both offensive and defensive rating. His impact goes well beyond the box score, but the production backs it up—efficient scoring, reliable perimeter shooting, strong rebounding, and playmaking all show up on a nightly basis. He averages 14.6 points per game, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. He knocks down over 50% of his field goals and over 35% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Not to mention that defensive energy we mentioned already with his 1.2 steals and 1.3 blocks per game. 

It also doesn’t hurt that Michigan has a far more favorable schedule than some of the other top contenders in this tournament. While the Blue Devils have a potential showdown with the reigning champion Florida Gators or last year’s runner up, the Houston Cougars, the Wolverines have a far less daunting path. If Michigan cuts down the nets in April, Lendeborg will be a major reason why. 

Jaden Bradley(12%) and Brayden Burries (9%), Arizona

Arizona Wildcats guard Jaden Bradley (0) passes the ball against Kansas Jayhawks during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9, 2026. / Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Arizona boasts one of the deepest rosters in the tournament with five players averaging double-digit points. From a trading standpoint, the Wildcats are consistently priced among the top contenders to win the tournament, but what stands out is how their roster construction distributes potential award equity across multiple players.

While Brayden Burries averaged more points per game (15.9), there’s a compelling case for Bradley given his all-around abilities. Bradley operates as the team’s primary facilitator, leading the roster in assists (4.5) while still maintaining strong scoring volume within a balanced offensive system that features multiple double-digit contributors.

That balance introduces volatility into any single-player market tied to Arizona’s postseason run, as production can shift from game to game. However, from a usage and opportunity perspective, Bradley’s role in initiating offense and his efficiency from beyond the arc (40.4%) position him to remain consistently involved in high-leverage moments. In a tournament setting where late-game execution often drives perception, that combination can meaningfully influence how his position evolves relative to teammates. Bradley is the Wildcat I have the most faith in and he may have the most value of any player on Kalshi. 

Braden Smith, Purdue (4%)

The Boilermakers were the preseason No. 1 team and although they went through some early-season struggles, they catapulted to a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance after dispatching the Wolverines in the Big Ten title game. The best player on Purdue is none other than Braden Smith, who averages 14.0 points per game, ranks second in the nation with 9.1 assists, and is shooting just shy of 39% from the three-point line in collegiate career. 

Purdue would have to get through Arizona to reach the Final Four, but they are the only team in the West Region that is scary on paper. The Boilermakers shouldn’t have any issues reaching the Elite 8 and if they find their way into the Final Four, Smith’s No. 1 ranked offense according to KenPon could surprise the other top contenders. If he can drop a few threes, get his teammates involved, and help Purdue to the promised land, the award is all but his. 

Final Thoughts on the March Madness Most Outstanding Player

There are several players we did not mention in this article such as Kingston Flemings of Houston, Thomas Haugh of Florida, and Joshua Jefferson of Iowa State. But at the end of the day, the players featured in this story are the ones with the best shot and the most upside. 

Final Pick: Cameron Boozer (23%)

Longshot Pick: Braden Smith (4%)

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