Predicting the Highest Seed to Qualify for the Final Four According to Kalshi

Kalshi prediction markets point to top seeds dominating the bracket, but what is the highest seed that can make a run at the Final Four?

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) shoots a free throw during the second half against the Miami Hurricanes during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Sweet 16 field is officially locked in, and while just one double-digit seed remains (Texas Longhorns), the opening rounds delivered exactly what makes March basketball so compelling. From buzzer-beaters to bracket-busting results, volatility was on full display. The Florida Gators, a top overall seed, were knocked out early by the Iowa Hawkeyes, while the High Point Panthers pulled off a first-round surprise over the Wisconsin Badgers before their run ended against the Arkansas Razorbacks. And that only scratches the surface.

What remains is a bracket dominated by power-conference programs. The Big Ten Conference has asserted itself with six teams still alive and a legitimate path to placing all four representatives in the Final Four. At the same time, the Big East Conference is eyeing a potential statement matchup, as the UConn Huskies and St. John's Red Storm could meet in a regional final with major implications.

From a market standpoint, attention has shifted to how these outcomes are being priced. One of the more active contracts on Kalshi right now focuses on the highest seed number to reach the Final Four. With trading volume picking up and prices adjusting in real time, it’s a good opportunity to evaluate how each remaining seed (and team) is being valued as the tournament enters its most critical stage.

Kalshi

Teams Remaining in March Madness

Below is a list of each team remaining and how many teams of each seed are still alive.

No. 1 Seeds : 3 – Duke, Arizona, and Michigan

No. 2 Seeds: 4 – Iowa State, UConn, Houston, and Purdue

No. 3 Seeds: 2 – Illinois and Michigan State

No. 4 Seeds: 3 – Nebraska, Arkansas, and Alabama

No. 5 Seed: 1 – St. John’s

No. 6 Seed: 1 – Tennessee

No. 9 Seed: 1 – Iowa

No. 11 Seed: 1 – Texas

What is the Highest Seed That Could Reach the Final Four?

The focus now shifts to how each region is likely to unfold. Which seed lines still have a realistic path to the Final Four? Here’s a market-driven breakdown of the most probable outcomes.

Kalshi

East Region

This is arguably the deepest and most competitive region left on the board, with all four remaining teams capable of making a run. St. John’s defensive identity has carried them this far, but their inconsistent scoring profile is a concern against a high-powered Duke offense. It’s difficult to project the Red Storm sustaining enough shot-making to pull off another upset against the Boozer brothers. On the other side, Michigan State–UConn feels like a true toss-up, though the Spartans would face a steep climb even if they advance.

Despite a sluggish start in the opening round, Duke still profiles as the most complete team in this region and arguably the entire tournament. No matter who the Blue Devils face in the Elite Eight, they will be the heavy favorite. I wouldn’t anticipate a shocker in this region.

The Pick: No. 1 Duke

South Region

With Florida gone, Nebraska has a great shot at advancing to the Elite Eight with a matchup looming against Iowa. The Hawkeyes just put the nation on notice but Nebraska had a big statement victory of their own in the Round of 32 against Vanderbilt. This game could go either way but the Cornhuskers are slight favorites (-1.5). But whoever wins this game is going to have a tall task in the bottom section of the bracket.

The true power in this region likely comes from the bottom half. The Houston Cougars (last year’s runner-up) continue to look like one of the most disciplined and defensively sound teams in the field. Their matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini will be telling, but Houston’s experience and identity give them the edge.

Houston's Milos Uzan (7) celebrates a 3-point basket during a second-round game in the NCAA men's basketball tournament between Houston Cougars and Texas A&M Aggies at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Saturday March 21, 2026. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

From a market perspective, this is a classic buy-on-strength situation, particularly for a team motivated by last year’s near miss.

The Pick: No. 2 Houston

West Region

Arizona survived a scare against Utah State in the Round of 32 but ultimately pulled away in the last few minutes. Now, they will face off against a very well-coached Arkansas Razorbacks who were tested by High Point in the second round. The Wildcats are heavy 7.5-point favorites on FanDuel and for good reason. This is the team that had the most trades placed on them pre-tournament. Arkansas will put up a tough battle but will ultimately be sent home packing.

On the other side, the Texas Longhorns have been the lone Cinderella story left standing, but their run faces a major hurdle against the Purdue Boilermakers. Led by Braden Smith, Purdue brings structure, experience, and one of the most efficient offenses in the country. But can Texas keep their surprising run going? The answer is a hard no. While their victory over Gonzaga was impressive, this wasn’t the same Gonzaga team we’ve seen in years past. Purdue is a much tougher test that is incredibly reliable in high-leverage and stressful situations and environments.

Ultimately, this region likely comes down to Arizona vs. Purdue. Both teams have championship-level talent, but Arizona’s depth—featuring multiple double-digit scorers—gives them a slight edge in a tournament setting. And if Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley continue to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc, this is a very difficult team to overcome. 

The Pick: No. 1 Arizona

Midwest Region

The Michigan Wolverines have looked dominant through two rounds, winning by an average margin of 22 points. That said, their first real test arrives against the high-scoring Alabama Crimson Tide, who are coming off an emphatic win of their own against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. While Michigan enters as a sizable favorite, the market may be undervaluing Alabama’s offensive firepower. This projects as a far more competitive game than the spread suggests.

Meanwhile, the Iowa State Cyclones continue to impress despite injury concerns, including the absence of Joshua Jefferson. Their defensive pressure and depth were on full display in a convincing win over the Kentucky Wildcats. Tennessee has been solid, but Iowa State’s profile suggests they have the higher ceiling.

"Having an MRI today, barring any hidden findings in that MRI, I expect him to play."

Injury analyst @mjsportspt on Joshua Jefferson's chances to play in Sweet 16. pic.twitter.com/gAXgwEyVxo

— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 23, 2026

If Jefferson returns, Iowa State becomes even more dangerous. Their defensive intensity and transition opportunities could create problems for Michigan in a potential Elite Eight matchup.

The Pick: No. 2 Iowa State (if Jefferson returns)

The Verdict

With Florida already eliminated, a perfect No. 1 seed sweep is off the table. That shifts value toward the No. 2 line, especially given the current pricing and realistic paths available.

If Houston advances out of the South—as expected—the probability of a seed higher than the No. 2 reaching the Final Four decreases significantly. From a trading standpoint, backing that range offers a strong balance of value and likelihood, particularly in a tournament that continues to reward disciplined, top-tier teams.

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