Tennessee vs. Iowa State Sweet 16 Predictions & Win Probabilities According to Kalshi

Iowa State heads into this game as the favorite but Tennessee isn’t going away without a fight and their recent success in the Sweet 16 makes this a matchup worth watching.

Iowa State Cyclones guard Killyan Toure (27) drives to the basket during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

Iowa State's path so far through the tournament hasn't been what I’d call stressful, winning their first two matchups by 19 and 34 points respectively. They also have the Sweet 16 pedigree on their side with this being T.J Otzelberger’s third Sweet 16 in five years.

Tennessee is no stranger to the Sweet 16 either, this being their fourth straight year appearing in this round of the tournament. They are also coming off a strong showing against the number three seeded Virginia who they upset earlier in the week. 

Tennessee vs. Iowa State Win Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalshi

Tennessee vs. Iowa State Sweet 16 Trading Breakdown

Both teams come into this matchup with something to prove, Iowa State coming off their underwhelming end to their regular season capped with a loss to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament semifinals and Tennessee looking to prove they have what it takes to break through to the Elite 8 for the third year in a row. 

Tennessee comes into this matchup led by Ja’kobi Gillespie who is averaging an impressive 18.4 PPG and 5.6 APG. He is the playmaker on this offense and when he is clicking this team is dangerous. Their team has a physical play style, averaging around 79.5 PPG while only allowing 69.4. Tennessee is no stranger to the spotlight of the Sweet 16, their recent success in this position makes this a great matchup. 

Tennessee Volunteers guard Ja'kobi Gillespie (0) shoots during a practice session ahead of the Midwest regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Meanwhile Iowa State is led by Milan Momcilovic who is averaging 17.2 PPG and has an impressive 51.2 FG%. Tamin Lipsey is coming off a strong game where he led the Cyclones with 26 points and 10 assists in their Round of 32 matchup against Kentucky. Iowa State has been dominant so far in the tournament winning their first 2 games by a combined margin of victory of 53 points. They will look to add onto this number but will have to go through a tough Tennessee team to make that happen. 

With both teams looking to prove to themselves and fans that they are real contenders in this year's tournament, we can expect to see a fast paced game with an offensive force going against a team who makes every possession a battle with their disciplined defense. 

Tonight's victor will have a tall order when they take on the winner of the Michigan-Alabama game.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Friday, March 27, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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