2026 National League MVP Race According to Kalshi: Shohei Ohtani’s Award to Lose

The market is pricing a historic three-peat. Here’s what the contracts say about Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna, and the long shots worth keeping your eye on.

Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani (17) looks on at bat in the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Shohei Ohtani entered the 2026 season with three consecutive MVP trophies, winning them all with unanimous voting. The market still clearly sees him being the person to beat for the rest of the field currently sitting at a 46% chance to walk away with another title at the end of the season. This would mark a run of dominance we haven't seen since Barry Bonds accomplished the same thing from 2001 to 2004. Since that run, we haven't seen any player get particularly close and it was assumed we might not ever see a run of dominance like that ever again. Then Shohei Ohtani showed up. 

For context, nearly half of the market is going to Shohei to win the trophy. That leaves 54% to be shared amongst the entire rest of the field. That field includes a strong National League lineup who range from power hitters, young five-tool players, and some recognizable names who might just need one or two things to break their way this season. Meanwhile, the only thing Ohtani seemingly needs is just to stay healthy. Ohtani is an even bigger favorite than Aaron Judge in the American League.

Ohtani is recovered from his second Tommy John surgery, he appeared in 14 starts last season logging a 2.87 ERA. Those stats are accompanied by his 1.014 OPS and 55 home runs at the plate. His MVP case for 2026 becomes even more strengthened if he can pitch a full season's worth of games. His ability to excel as a two-way player inflates his WAR in ways other players struggle to compete with, and the voters clearly see that and agree. With the Dodgers projected to be a top contender in this year's World Series race, his stats and performances will be in the spotlight once again this year.

2026 MLB NL MVP Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalshi

The Field: Soto, Acuna, and Tatis

Juan Soto is the next closest challenger currently with a 13% chance to overtake Ohtani for the award. Soto over the years has shown elite plate discipline and massive upside each year. That combined with the fact that the Mets are looking to make a deep run this year means if they are performing well he will need to be at the top of his game. He will be looking to put up another 40+ home run year and have elite on-base production. But would that be enough?

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the next player down on the list, sitting at 9% after a 2025 season that was defined by injuries. When healthy, Acuna is one of the most exciting players in all of the MLB and one of the few who can realistically put up a 40-40 season and MVP case. He won this award back in 2023 when he put up an incredible 41 home run and 73 stolen base season. Since then however, he has struggled to stay healthy and put up a full season's worth of stats. Going into his age 28 season, fresh off the World Baseball Classic victory, he could use that momentum to make a real case for his second MVP award of his career. 

Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) warms up before a game against the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Fernando Tatis Jr. finds himself in a similar situation, tons of talent, and an electric energy on the field, but missing games and inconsistencies have hurt his case. His market currently sits at 6%, a fair middle ground for real talent.  He is going to look to stay healthy for 162 games, and produce a consistent version of himself that can help the Padres win games this year. 

The Value Picks: A Cluster of Elite Talent

Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Bryce Harper, Corbin Carroll, and Elly De La Cruz are all priced at 3% on Kalshi, and all offer a different skillset that make them compelling options. Schwarber is coming off a season where he put up 56 home runs and finished 2nd in MVP voting. With a new contract from Philadelphia he will look to expand on his success from last year and make a real case for his first MVP. His teammate, Bryce Harper, is a former MVP himself and has shown in glimpses he still has what it takes to be that guy again. Carroll and De La Cruz are toolsy players who bring a ton of talent to the diamond and could prove to be difference makers for their teams. If either of these guys get out to a hot start early and can keep that going and build on throughout the year we might see them have a real chance. With all these names coming in at 3% the market is saying they think they would need a historic individual season, or Ohtani missing significant time. 

Market Lean

There doesn’t seem to be much question about who the best player in the National League is, but there is the question of injury, voter fatigue, or a challenger who makes a strong enough case that they simply can't be denied. The market right now is showing how people see a generational talent, in his prime, entering a new season with no true signs of slowing down. The rest of the board is essentially a collection of what-ifs, and it is often hard for people to invest in things like that. There is some clear value, and plenty of eager rising stars, and experienced veterans looking to dethrone Ohtani and take back the MVP trophy. 

One thing is clear: someone is going to have to take it from him. 

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Monday, March 30, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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