Mets Remain Favorites in NL East Race Despite Juan Soto Injury

The National League East has been on fire to start the 2026 season, with four of five teams with an above .500 record approximately 10 games into the year. This division has some of the biggest names in the league featuring Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr., and more All Stars. This year, it appears to be a three-team race between the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. The Marlins and Nationals simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace with franchises with far higher payrolls and talented rosters.

2026 National League East Standings

Surprisingly, the Miami Marlins are in first place after a red-hot start, before losing two of their last three to the New York Yankees. The Mets check in at second place with a 6-4 record despite the absence of the heart and sole of their lineup, Juan Soto. The Atlanta Braves are also 6-4 after losing two straight to the Arizona Diamondbacks, including one in extras yesterday. The Philadelphia Phillies are 5-4, but have looked nothing more than pedestrian. That being said, they are one of the most talented lineups in the National League. Some positive regression has to be anticipated. And in last place are the Washington Nationals, who sit at 3-6 and don’t have much of a chance at competing this season. They were just swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers and are now on a five-game losing streak.

Last 10 NL East Division Winners

2025: Philadelphia Phillies

2024: Philadelphia Phillies

2023: Atlanta Braves

2022: Atlanta Braves

2021: Atlanta Braves

2020: Atlanta Braves

2019: Atlanta Braves

2018: Atlanta Braves

2017: Washington Nationals

2016: Washington Nationals

2015: New York Mets

Every team outside of the Marlins has won the division in the last decade.

National League East Winner Probabilities According to Kalshi

2026 National League East Winner Odds — Kalshi

According to prediction markets on Kalshi, the team that last won the division in 2015 are the current favorites to win the NL East. The Mets currently sit at 39%. Behind the Metropolitans are the Atlanta Braves (32%) and Philadelphia Phillies (31%). The Miami Marlins sit at 7% despite their fast start and the Nationals sit at just 1%.

Let’s take a closer look at each legitimate contender.

New York Mets (39%)

New York came out of the gate swinging, lighting up Paul Skenes for five runs in less than an inning. However, a couple of ugly extra-inning losses had fans a bit skeptical before a three-game win streak in which the offense has tallied 24 runs, and that’s without the services of Juan Soto. This is a team that has the second-most hits (89) behind only the Houston Astros.

Francisco Lindor has gotten off to another slow start, but there is a lot to be excited about when evaluating this roster. We know that Lindor, Soto, and newest acquisition Bo Bichette will be dominant atop the order. But there were major question marks in the middle of the lineup and within the pitching rotation heading into the year.

And all the early indications suggest that there was nothing to be worried about. New York’s rotation has the third-best ERA (2.53) in the league and Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga have been nothing short of dominant. Nolan McLean continues to confuse opposing hitters, and the new end-of-game duo of Luke Weaver and Devin Williams have been incredibly reliable, though it’s obviously a small sample size. Freddy Peralta hasn’t exactly pitched like an ace, but we’ve witnessed enough of his heroics to know that he won’t be the problem by the time we get closer to the playoffs.

New York Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fourth inning at Citi Field. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It’s also important to note that Mark Vientos is looking like the player he was two years ago. After a down year in 2025, Vientos has started the season 10-21 with a homer and four RBIs. Vientos was a guy who met the moment during New York’s improbable run to the National League Championship Series in 2024. He clearly has a high ceiling and the early returns suggest that perhaps last year was just a fluke.

Additionally, Luis Robert Jr. has looked great in center field, and is clearly an upgrade over the platoon that was Tyrone Taylor and Cedric Mullins in 2025. Robert has been excellent defensively and is hitting .333 with a homer, six RBIs, and two stolen bases. Perhaps most importantly, Francisco Alvarez is seeing the ball extremely well in the early season. The slugger catcher is hitting .292 with three long balls. If he can hit 25+ home runs at the bottom of the lineup, this Mets offense could be even scarier than originally anticipated.

Overall, if the pitching remains elite and Sean Manaea continues to improve in the bullpen, we could be looking at this year’s NL East winner. It’s certainly been a long time coming.

Atlanta Braves (32%)

The Braves have a ton of talent but injuries have plagued them the last few years. This could be the bounce-back team nobody wants to see in the MLB postseason. Acuna continues to be one of the best outfielders in the world and an infield featuring Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley is very dangerous. Even Mauricio Dubon is contributing. The young infielder is actually leading the team with a .333 batting average. And young catcher Drake Baldwin is on a tear with four home runs in just 10 games. Once the more proven veterans find their swing, this lineup could cause a lot of chaos.

Despite Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenback beginning the season on the Injured List, the Braves have the best team ERA in the sport (1.82). Bryce Elder has thrown 13 scoreless innings (two unearned runs) with 13 strikeouts and a 0.85 WHIP. Veteran Chris Sale has been almost as dominant with a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings and nine strikeouts. Even Reynold Lopez and Grant Holmes have started the season with a 1.64 and 2.45 ERA respectively. This staff, particularly when healthy, could be a gamechanger come October.

Philadelphia Phillies (31%)

The Phillies have won the division each of the last two years but they have a lot more competition in 2026 and according to Kalshi, they have the third-highest odds at defending their division crown. It’s not like the Phillies have been bad, but the 5-4 record is nothing to brag about, especially given that their last two series came against the Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies.

Philly’s sluggers aren’t exactly hitting. Bryce Harper is just 5-36 (.139), though he has belted two home runs. Kyle Schwarber is 6-32 (.188) but his three long balls have saved his season thus far. Still, he needs to get on base far more often. And Alec Bohm is just 6-34 (.176). These veterans need to be more consistent if Philly wants to make a run at the division.

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Bryce Harper (3) looks on from the bench before the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The pitching staff has been relatively up and down as well outside of the dominant Christopher Sanchez who has allowed just one run in 11.1 innings. Aaron Nola has looked pretty good in each of his two outings thus far, but Jesus Luzardo has been extremely volatile and Taijuan Walker has an atrocious 9.31 ERA through two starts.

At the end of the day, the Phillies need to be a lot more consistent if they want to win the division for the third straight year.

Right now, the market is leaning towards a New York Mets team that looks wildly different than it did last season. But so long as Soto’s calf strain isn’t serious and the early pitching progress isn’t just a facade, New York could easily recapture the NL East.

Editor's Note: After this story was published, Juan Soto was placed on the 10-day Injured List, lowering the Mets' chances at winning the division to 35%.

The Mets have placed Juan Soto on the 10-Day IL with a right calf strain

He will miss approximately 2-3 weeks pic.twitter.com/ywqmbY2m7j
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) April 6, 2026

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Monday, April 6, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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