Celtics Emerge as Favorites to Represent Eastern Conference in 2026 NBA Finals

For most of the 2025-2026 season we have seen the teams at the top of the conference shuffling around with teams going on runs, blockbuster trades, or a superstar returning from injury. This conference has been wide open for most of the season, and with just under two weeks until the play-in tournament we still don’t have a clear picture. However, the market is telling us a story of where it believes this conference might end up.

There are a number of teams legitimately still in the picture for this year's Eastern Conference Champion. The Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, and the Cleveland Cavaliers all still carry good value and a real chance. We are used to seeing a bigger gap this late into the season, but with multiple teams remaining competitive at the top it is well worth watching the markets because small shifts in the field carry real information on the always moving landscape.

2026 Eastern Conference Champion Probabilities According to Kalshi

2026 Eastern Conference Champion Odds — Kalshi

The Boston Celtics: 36% Chance

The Boston Celtics have been a huge story out of the east all season long, and not for the reason anyone fully expected. Jayson Tatum tore his achilles last year in the conference semifinals and the offseason was full of names leaving their roster. Jrue Holiday was dealt to Portland, Kristaps was traded to Atlanta, another key player, Al Horford, walked away in free agency. It was looking like a down year in Boston, or possibly even a rebuild.

Instead, head coach Joe Mazzula showed his system worked even without their star player and some key role players. Jaylen Brown also stepped up and showed his ability to lead a roster not just as a co-star but as the main focal point. Boston has been in the conversation all year long, hanging around the number 2 seed in the East for most of the year, even before Tatum’s return earlier this month. Ever since his return, the Celtics have gone 9-2 and played some really good basketball in the month of March. That kind of play doesn't go unnoticed in the markets, and pushes their chances higher.

With Tatum back healthy, Brown playing like a star in his own right, Payton Pritchard proving solid relief off the bench and Derrick White making life miserable for other teams’ perimeter scorers every night, the Celtics have the profile of a team that has what it takes to go all the way in the East.

The Cleveland Cavaliers: 23% Chance

Cleveland came into this season looking like the team to beat, capitalizing off their success from last season. They finished the regular season with an impressive record of 64-18 and earned themselves 1st in the eastern conference headed into the playoffs. They ended up losing to the Indiana Pacers in the second round of the playoffs but had an opportunity to build on their success. The year didn’t start quite how the market expected it to for them, and certainly not how they wanted it to. So before the trade deadline they went out and made a blockbuster deal for James Harden which gave them what turned out to be a much needed boost.

Cleveland Cavaliers guard James Harden (1) brings the ball up court in the third quarter against the Miami Heat at Rocket Arena. | David Richard-Imagn Images

The combination of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley hopes to do what last year's team couldn’t. Even by adding a superstar there are still questions that circle around him, does he have what it takes to show up when it matters most in the playoffs? Cleveland is sitting at 4th in the conference. Mitchell remains a top scoring threat in the East, while Mobley gives them an elite 2-way threat. The addition of Harden is huge, and spreads the floor out for them by forcing the defense to respect an additional offensive threat. Cleveland is being treated like a true option in the market, not just an afterthought.

The New York Knicks: 16% Chance

The New York Knicks have been contenders all season, and the markets have been treating them as such. The Knicks are a dangerous team, but especially at home. They have a strong 27-9 home record, and Madison Square Garden is known for being a hard place for opposing teams to come into and win. Could this be the year the Knicks break through?

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) reacts after making a three point basket during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Knicks are coming off their NBA Cup victory this season, their first trophy of any kind since the 1973 NBA Championship. Their fans have been waiting quite awhile to see their team back at the top of that mountain, and it seems like this year's team might have a chance to make that dream a reality. Currently holding 3rd place in the East, the Jalen Brunson led Knicks have played well this year. Jalen Brunson has continued to prove he can be clutch in the big moments and close out games. The addition of Mikal Bridges to their roster has proved advantageous adding some defensive manpower and length to their roster. They also have postseason experience, winning a series in back to back seasons. Do they have what it takes to hold off some of the big names looming over them in the East?

The Detroit Pistons: 15% Chance

Detroit has spent this season doing something they haven’t done in quite awhile, winning, and winning consistently. They currently hold the number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and look to extend their success into the playoffs. If they can win a playoff series that would be the first in the franchise since 2008. They made it to the playoffs last season, but were kicked in the first round by the New York Knicks.

The star leading this team has been Cade Cunningham who is putting up an MVP caliber season. Unfortunately he has been hit with a late season injury, a collapsed lung, that has left him out indefinitely. That injury alone is the one thing driving down the price of their market right now, uncertainty can kill a team's chances and that's what we are seeing now. The first place Pistons, with the second best record in the entire league have only the 4th highest chances to win the East.

If Detroit can hold off long enough for Cunningham to return for the playoffs the entire landscape will change massively. The Pistons are hoping to hold onto that first place seed, and the home court advantage that comes with it. If they can make sure everyone else has to go through Little Caesars Arena, and get Cade Cunningham back healthy, the East is going to have a hard time writing off this Detroit Pistons Team.

The Market Lean

The Boston Celtics seem to have the perfect formula to fit this situation. They have the coach, the depth, the superstar returning at the right time, and the playoff experience. Detroit has some amazing value based on how they have been playing all year, but it is massively conditional on Cade Cunningham's return. New York is a lurking threat who could take advantage of a top seed falling off. While Cleveland is priced well if Harden continues his regular season success into the playoffs.

The Eastern Conference market is still up for grabs. Boston leads the market, but nothing is settled yet. It’s a market worth paying attention to as the playoffs are fast approaching.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Monday, March 30, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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