Thunder Enter Final Stretch As Massive Western Conference Champion Favorites

For most of the 2025-2026 season the Western Conference has played out in the way we have become used to seeing: ruthless. A few legitimate title contenders, a surprise team that beat the projections, and a superstar duo in Los Angeles that makes every game feel like a must watch. A little different from the East where it feels like the market feels uncertain, the West has a clear leader. Oklahoma currently sits atop the list, but there is still some real value from the other contenders beneath them. The trick is figuring out who has the best shot at knocking off last year's champions.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Lakers are the teams getting the most attention in the Western conference championship market right now. The gap between OKC and the rest of the field is significant, but those things have a way of changing when the playoffs begin and you have to win a best of seven series. Here is what to look for in the market.

2026 Western Conference Champion Probabilities According to Kalshi

2026 NBA Western Conference Champion Odds — Kalshi

The Oklahoma City Thunder: 51% Chance

Oklahoma City enters the final stretch of the season with the best record in the NBA at 60-16, and the clear favorite to be the team to make it out of the Western Conference again this year. Their massive 51 cents per share on Kalshi just goes to show how dominant they have been this year, and how the fans expect this dominance to continue into the playoffs and eventually another Finals appearance to defend their title.

They have dealt with injuries throughout the year, but their incredible depth off the bench and their strong supporting cast makes it easier for them to continue to play at a high level even without a few key players. This is one of their biggest strengths going into the NBA playoffs because they have elite depth that can help keep their legs fresh for a deep run. Young players like Jalen Williams have developed into a legitimate co-star in his own right, Chet Holmgren is a defensive force that creates problems around the basket for any team they play. Of course, it doesn't hurt to have last year's MVP, and this year's favorite to win the award again, leading your team each night. With so many pieces on offense it makes it very easy for them to spread the floor on defenses, they simply have too many ways to be a threat to score. At this point the question doesn't seem to be if they can make it back to the finals, but rather is there really anyone who can stop them?

The San Antonio Spurs: 27% Chance

Coming into the season we expected the Oklahoma City storyline, but San Antonio has been a welcomed surprise. They have put together a strong 57-18 record to this point, sitting in the number 2 spot in the West and the second best record in the NBA. This will be San Antonio's first playoff appearance since 2019, ending their lackluster streak. Spurs fans had become used to watching extra basketball each year after they made 39 playoffs in 50 years.

San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The driving force behind San Antonio is Victor Wembanyama, one of the most unique and intriguing talents we’ve ever seen in the NBA. He is a matchup nightmare for teams, his combination of size, shot-blocking ability and offensive creation is something that defenses have no clean answer for. His talent, combined with their acquisition of De’Aaron Fox last year created a legitimate two-star foundation for their team that can compete with any team in the league. One of their most impressive stats all year was their regular season record against OKC, going 4-1 against the team with the best record in the league. The markets have taken notice of this team, and their 27% market share shows people think this team has a real chance to be the ones to dethrone the Thunder.

Of course, with this being a young team with limited playoff experience, there are always questions about if they can handle the big moments coming their way. Their head coach Mitch Johnson, at just 36 years old, has not been to the playoffs as a head coach. The playoffs as everyone knows is a different animal, and it’s clear very quickly if the moment is too big. San Antonio has some of the most intriguing value in the markets right now. They clearly have a high ceiling, but is there just too much unknown?

The Denver Nuggets: 13% Chance

The Denver Nuggets have become the team that hangs around for the playoffs, then starts eliminating everyone around them. It’s hard not to take this team seriously when they show up for the big moments seemingly every year. They are sitting at 4th in the West with a 48-28 record with just a few games left in the season. Nikola Jokic is their driving force, he is having another statistically incredible season, something he’s done for most of his career.

Jokic is another incredibly unique force on the floor, a near seven footer who can rebound, push the ball in transition, shoot from the outside, elite passing and loves creating opportunities for his teammates. You can try to game plan for someone like that, but we’ve seen defensive plans breakdown fast. Denver has the playoff experience, winning the title in 2023, they have the star players and the supporting cast to make a deep run happen. The only road block is that to make it back to the big dance, they will need to face San Antonio or OKC to get there. The market has them priced as a live option, but not a favorite. Don’t count them out in a 7 game series, but recognize that this might be one the hardest paths through the West we've seen in a long time.

The Los Angeles Lakers: 8% Chance

The Los Angeles Lakers have been must watch basketball all season long, not too many combinations of star players out there turn heads like the combo of LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Bringing Doncic over from Dallas last year is the kind of trade that reshapes an entire organization overnight. The team currently sits at a 49-26 record and holds the 3 seed in the West. The markets have been treating the Lakers as legitimate contenders all year long, and they still have some great upside to make a deep run to end the year.

Watching this team you can sometimes get the feeling that Luka is still adjusting to his new role and the new system. We have also seen flashes of what this partnership can look like at its ceiling and it is impossible to ignore how good they could be. You can make an argument that when Doncic and James are both healthy and operating at full speed that this could be the most offensively talented duo in the entire league. The problem is being able to sustain that high level of play over the length of four playoff rounds against the best teams in the league.

Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) during the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at Crypto.com Arena. | William Liang-Imagn Images

LeBron’s age and availability are always going to be a factor at this point in his career, and that looms over their market chances. He has defied people's expectations for years and continued to play elite basketball, but it is becoming evident that he is slowing down. If both stars can stay healthy over the length of the playoffs, and play to their ability, this team has the talent to compete with anyone in the league on any given night. This high ceiling, with good market upside, makes their position incredibly interesting. LeBron has earned his respect throughout the years, don’t ever count him out.

The Market Lean

Oklahoma City is the leader in market position, and it's not particularly close. They have the best record, the best player, the defending title, and a roster who has only become more experienced since last year's run. If you're looking for the most straightforward call, OKC representing the West in this year's finals seems to be the best call on the board right now. The market represents that with their heavy market share, they have built trust with the public to get to this point and they seem to be the team to beat.

A more interesting conversation is what to do with San Antonio. The Spurs are priced as the clear second option to take the West, and their price still holds some real value for those interested. They have had success in the regular season against the Thunder, so we know they can match up against them. Their youth and inexperience in this kind of situation is a legitimate concern, but a generational talent like Wembanyama has a way of making concerns like that disappear. If there is another team in the West who can be a genuine threat to dethrone OKC on their path back to the Finals, it would be San Antonio.

Denver is a team nobody wants to face in the first round of the playoffs. Jokic and his supporting cast have a way of making a series look harder and last longer than it should be, and they have the championship experience to back it up. The Lakers are the true wildcard, having one of the highest ceilings, but also the most questions. If Luka and LeBron can find their rhythm at the right time Los Angeles has a chance to make a serious run. If they don’t, the West will move on without them.

The Western Conference has a clear leader. What happens behind Oklahoma City is where things really get interesting.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Tuesday, March 31, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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