The Masters Top Five: Scottie Scheffler Is the Clear Leader in the Markets, But Augusta Rarely Stays That Simple

Kalshi's Top 5 Finisher market heads into Thursday with Scottie Scheffler at 43%, a number that sits clearly above the rest of the field. Below him, prices run from Jon Rahm at 31% down to Hideki Matsuyama at 18%, with six players bunched inside a ten-point range in between. That compression is not noise. It is the market acknowledging that a top-five finish is a wider target than the outright title, and that Augusta National tends to keep things close enough through Sunday that several players remain in range.

The outright champion market, which we covered already, had Scheffler at 15%, DeChambeau and Rahm at 8%, McIlroy at 7%, and Aberg and Schauffele at 6% apiece. Those numbers have since adjusted, as is expected entering into a tournament. The top-five board expands those probabilities meaningfully, and in a few cases the gap between a player's outright price and his top-five price tells you something useful about how the market is reading him heading into the week.

The Masters Top 5 Finishers Market on Kalshi

2026 Masters Top 5 Finishers Market on Kalshi — Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler: 43%

The jump from 15% in the outright market to 43% here is the largest on the board, and it makes sense. Scheffler is the kind of player who tends to be around the leaderboard at Augusta regardless of how a week unfolds. Four straight top-10 finishes at this event. Two titles. The best strokes-gained numbers on tour through the early part of 2026. A top-five finish is nearly the expected outcome for him when things go reasonably well, and the market has priced it that way.

The rust concern from missing the last few weeks is the only major knock on his game right now. He missed his two pre-Masters starts following the birth of his second child and arrives without recent competitive reps on a course that rewards feel accumulated over time. That question has been absorbed into the 43%. It is what the market landed on after working through it.

No other name on this board is within twelve points of him. That gap reflects genuine separation in how participants view his Augusta profile relative to everyone else in the field.

Jon Rahm: 31%

The distance between Rahm's outright price (8%) and his top-five price (31%) is one of the more telling gaps on either board. It suggests the market sees him as a player who belongs in the Augusta conversation without necessarily being the one standing at the top of it when Sunday is over. His history here supports that. He won in 2023, finished fourteenth last year, and has rarely been out of the picture at this event over the past several years.

His iron play fits what Augusta asks for as well as anyone in Thursday's field. A LIV schedule has kept him from accumulating the fatigue that a full PGA Tour season can produce entering the major stretch. He arrives fresh, with a record of strong play at this course that keeps him relevant at a price that reflects exactly that.

Rory McIlroy: 26%

Defending champion. Career Grand Slam complete. And a 2026 season that has been uneven by his own recent standards. McIlroy at 26% in the top-five market is the field processing all three of those things at once as Thursday approaches.

He has spoken about approaching this week differently now that the Grand Slam weight is behind him. Whether that freedom unlocks something or costs him an edge is one of the more open questions at Augusta this week. The back nine Sunday has a way of sorting things like that out faster than anyone prefers. At 26%, the market is not dismissing him. It is also not treating the defending title as a reliable indicator of another top-five run.

Rory Mcilroy 2025 Masters Champion — Apr 13, 2025; Augusta, Georgia, USA; Rory McIlroy celebrates with caddy, Harry Diamond, after winning a playoff on the 18th green during the final round of the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale-Imagn Images | Katie Goodale-Imagn Images

Xander Schauffele: 25%

His outright price was 6%, which placed him alongside Aberg in the tier of players with strong Augusta profiles who had not yet broken through to win. The top-five market at 25% is more comfortable territory for Schauffele, because his Augusta history is essentially a catalog of strong finishes and near-misses that a 25% top-five price describes reasonably well.

Two majors on his record. Top-10 finishes at Augusta in three of the last four years. The ball-striking numbers fit what this course consistently rewards. The question that follows him in the outright market, whether he can hold the lead position when it matters most on Sunday, does not carry the same weight in the top-five conversation.

Bryson DeChambeau: 24%

Two LIV wins to open 2026. A 7,555-yard Augusta layout that suits his distance creation in ways no other player in this field can claim to the same degree. His outright price was 8%, and the top-five market at 24% reflects the same underlying tension heading into Thursday: easy to see the argument for him being in the picture, harder to assume the pieces land in the right order over four rounds.

A top-five finish does not require perfection. It requires enough of the right things over enough holes to stay within range. DeChambeau has demonstrated at other major venues that he can manage that. The 24% is the market saying it is a reasonable outcome, not a guaranteed one.

Ludvig Aberg: 22%

Two Augusta appearances, two top-ten finishes, including a runner-up in 2024. The market knows his ceiling here and has priced it accordingly. At 22%, he sits one point below DeChambeau and is essentially in the same conversation. A major feels like a matter of time for Aberg. Whether that time arrives this week is what 22% leaves open.

Ludvig Aberg walking off the 12th green at the Masters — Apr 13, 2025; Augusta, Georgia, USA; Ludvig Aberg walk down on the 12th green during the final round of the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale-Imagn Images | Katie Goodale-Imagn Images

Matt Fitzpatrick: 21% | Tommy Fleetwood: 20%

Both bring major credentials and ball-striking profiles that translate to Augusta. Neither has the same level of course-specific history as the names above them. Fitzpatrick's precision off the tee fits the placement demands this course makes. Fleetwood has been in major contention enough times to understand what that environment requires. The market is treating both as credible without placing either at the center of the top-five picture.

Cameron Young: 19% | Hideki Matsuyama: 18%

Young is ticking up slightly per Kalshi, which suggests some participant movement in his direction as Thursday approaches. He has the power and ball-striking upside to compete at Augusta if the short game holds over four days.

Matsuyama won here in 2021 and knows this course in a way only a past champion can. His 18% at the bottom of this board of contenders is not a dismissal. It is the market accounting for where his Augusta peak sits historically, while leaving room for the possibility that course familiarity still means something when Sunday afternoon arrives.

The Market Picture

Scheffler's 43% is the only number on this board that stands apart cleanly. Everything below it, from Rahm at 31% down to Matsuyama at 18%, represents a market that sees four more top-five spots and plenty of credible players with a chance to fill them.

That is a true read of what Augusta tends to produce. The leaderboard rarely narrows cleanly before Sunday. Multiple players stay within range, a single hole reshapes the picture, and the week ends with outcomes that felt possible but not obvious when Thursday morning began. The top-five market is priced to reflect exactly that kind of week, and it opens Thursday with a lot still to settle.

Accuracy note: Market data referenced reflects Kalshi contract prices as of April 8, 2026. Prices shift continuously. Verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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