Why Kalshi Traders Are All In on the USA in World Cup Group D

The USA is the easy call in Group D. Everything below them is where it looks unsettled, and the market is starting to reflect that.

Dec 5, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; The World Cup trophy sits on a podium during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Draw at John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Group D was supposed to be straightforward. The United States got the home draw, two familiar opponents, and a Turkey side that needed playoff wins just to qualify. Comfortable on paper. Kalshi agrees, at least at the top.

Below the Americans, things are messier. Turkey has been rising. Paraguay has been slipping. Australia can't crack 50%. Three teams, one realistic spot, and a final matchday on June 25 that could go in several directions. That's the real market story here.

World Cup Group D Qualifiers | Kalshi Market

USA | 81% Chance

The circumstances don't get much better than this for a host nation. The U.S. plays all three group stage games on the West Coast, opens against a Paraguay side they beat 2-1 in a friendly last fall, and has home crowds for every minute of the group stage. The Yes contract sits at 85 cents, and the 81% probability reflects all of it.

Pochettino's side knows these opponents. They've played all three within the last two years, which removes a layer of uncertainty that tends to hurt hosts early. The one number that keeps this below 90% is a June 2024 loss to Turkey, a 2-1 result that came without any American crowd advantage. That's what makes June 25 closer against the Turks, something more than a formality.

Mar 31, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; United States forward Brenden Aaronson (11) controls the ball against Portugal at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Turkey | 76% Chance

Up six points in recent movement, Yes at 81 cents. For a program that spent over two decades out of World Cup competition, that's a real market position.

Hakan Calhanoglu runs Inter Milan's midfield, Captains the team from Turkey, and carries 22 international goals. Kerem Akturkoğlu scored the qualifier against Kosovo. Vincenzo Montella took this group to the Euro 2024 quarterfinals. And they were able to beat the United States less than a year ago. 

The No contract at 28 cents says traders still see downside, but Turkey has the clearest argument for second place in this group, and the market has been moving that direction.

Paraguay | 61% Chance

Down five points. Yes at 69 cents, No at 33 cents.

Fourteen goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifying matches, the fewest of any automatic South American qualifier. Paraguay earned their spot by making it nearly impossible to score against them, not by being an offensive threat. That works in qualifying. It's a harder task when you're potentially chasing a result in the final group stage game against Australia on June 25, which could shape up as a must-win depending on earlier results.

Australia | 48% Chance

The only team in this group below 50%, with Yes and No contracts nearly even at 51 and 53 cents. The market really doesn't know at this point.

Australia reached the Round of 16 in Qatar, so the experience is real. But their path here is difficult. They open against Turkey in Vancouver on June 13, a match they need a result from to keep the group alive. After that comes the U.S. in Seattle. The coin-flip pricing reflects a team with a narrow margin for error and a schedule that doesn't offer many favors.

The Market Read

The Group D Qualifier market on Kalshi is still wide open. Turkey rising, Paraguay dropping, Australia stuck below the midpoint. The six-point swing toward the Turks isn't noise. If Turkey handles Australia on June 13, this group could be functionally settled before the final matchday, leaving Paraguay and Australia to compete for a single spot neither of them is built to chase.

The U.S. position is about as secure as a group stage market gets. The only open question in Group D is who joins them. The World Cup is fast approaching.

The draw looked comfortable for the Americans on paper. Six months later, the market is just confirming what most people already assumed.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 14, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.