A New Team Has Passed the Browns and Jets in the Race for NFL’s Worst Record

Miami and Arizona have quietly taken over a market most people assumed belonged to the Jets and Browns.

Sep 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Miami Dolphins running back DeVon Achane (28) rushes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

The Jets and Browns have spent years as the default punchline whenever the conversation turns to NFL futility. Both franchises have burned through coaches and quarterbacks, and neither has done much to shake the reputation. So when a market opened on Kalshi asking which team would finish with the worst record in the 2026 regular season, those two names felt like easy frontrunners.

The market disagreed. With $8,327 in total volume, Miami and Arizona have climbed to the top of the standings, and the gap between them and the teams everyone expected to lead this market tells you something about where trader confidence actually sits heading into the season.

NFL Worst Regular Season Record | Kalshi Market

Kalshi

Miami Dolphins | 22% Chance

Miami is the market leader at 22%, contracts trading at 23 cents yes and 78 cents no. That is not a number you would have associated with the Dolphins a few years ago, when the franchise looked like it was building something real around Tua Tagovailoa and a receiving corps that ranked among the most dangerous in football.

Tyreek Hill, one of the most dynamic receivers in the league seems to be on his way out. Jaylen Waddle got dealt to the Broncos in the offseason. Now it seems like Devon Achane is the last standing from their offensive group that has shown flashes of potential in recent years. 

Things have changed. The cap situation in Miami has tightened, the roster has thinned out in spots that matter, and the AFC East is not a division that offers soft landing spots. Traders have apparently decided that the combination of roster uncertainty, a punishing schedule, and some lingering organizational questions makes Miami the most likely team to bottom out. 

At 22%, the market is not saying Miami will definitely finish last. It is saying the conditions are there for things to go sideways in a real way.

Arizona Cardinals | 19% Chance

Arizona sits at 19% and has seen contracts move up a cent in recent trading activity, sitting now at 24 cents yes and 80 cents no. That upward movement matters. It suggests traders are not just parking money here on a whim but are actively looking at Arizona's floor heading into the year.

The Cardinals have been somewhere in the middle of a rebuild for what feels like several seasons running. Kyler Murray's time in Glendale is officially over. Now there is a real question about who will lead their offense this season. On top of that, the surrounding roster construction raises real questions about whether this team has enough to stay competitive in a division that has played like the hardest in the league. 

The fact that contract prices are ticking upward rather than settling tells you there is still active disagreement about where Arizona lands.

New York Jets | 18% Chance

At 18%, the Jets rank third in a market where most people expected them to be first or second. Contracts are at 18 cents yes and 86 cents no, which reflects a market that takes New York seriously as a candidate without treating them as a lock.

The post-Rodgers situation in New York is complicated. The team spent a lot of capital and goodwill on a quarterback reunion that did not work out, and the path forward at that position is not as clean as they would like. 

Geno Smith is back in New Rutherford quarterbacking the Jets. This is a reunion not too many saw coming. The Jets, and Geno Smith, have been through a lot since they first separated. Now they are both hoping for better results the second time around.  

Still, the Jets have enough veteran pieces on defense that traders are not willing to write them off entirely. They are in the conversation, just not leading it.

Sep 19, 2024; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (5) scores a 3rd quarter touchdown in front of New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez (0) at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Cleveland Browns | 7% Chance

Cleveland is at the back of this market at 7%, contracts sitting at 9 cents yes and 95 cents no. That number is genuinely surprising given the volume of coverage the Browns have received as a potential bottom-dweller heading into 2026. 

The Browns are another team with quite a few questions inside their building. Including who is going to be under center this season. Deshaun Watson is fighting for the job. While Shedeur Sanders is coming into his second year in the league, after being a pro bowler in his rookie season. Dillon Gabriel who had opportunities to show he had what it took last season. And now their 6th round draft pick, Taylen Green enters this already complicated QB room. 

The market is trying to price Cleveland out of last place, and that represents a meaningful gap between public narrative and trader behavior.

Whether that reflects real confidence in Cleveland's roster or simply a correction after the Browns being overdiscussed is hard to pin down. At 7%, though, the market has made its position clear.

The Market Angle

The story buried inside these numbers is not about Cleveland or the Jets. It is about Miami. A franchise that was being discussed as an AFC contender a couple of years ago is now sitting at the top of a worst-record market, and traders are not treating that position as a fluke. The Dolphins' yes contracts have held steady while Arizona's have moved up, which means money is not fleeing Miami. It is staying there.

Teams that had legitimate playoff conversations not long ago are now the names traders reach for first in a futility market. That is a fast fall, and the season has not even started.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of May 6, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.