Makai Lemon 2026 NFL Draft Outlook: Kalshi Traders Split on Rams, Dolphins, and Jets

After a Biletnikoff season and a rocky combine, the market is trying to figure out which team pulls the trigger on one of this draft's most polarizing prospects.

Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) warms up before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Makai Lemon won the Biletnikoff Award last season at USC following an impressive Junior year. He also went viral at the NFL Combine for all the wrong reasons. Three weeks out from the NFL draft in Pittsburgh those two variables are fighting each other and will determine where he falls in this year's draft.

The combine can either help, or hurt a prospect’s draft position. Unfortunately for Makai Lemon, he hurt his case far more than he helped it. His demeanor throughout the interview process made him viral, many reporters citing that he was often distant and uninterested. The reports from team interviews weren’t any better, and that is the kind of thing that can tank a prospect. However, winning the award for the best receiver in college football goes a long way in getting things like attitude and behavior looked past. The combination of elite play and off-the-field issues creates a bigger market for where he could end up, because it creates uncertainty for both fans and teams alike. 

Lemon may not be the first receiver off the board but he's virtually a lock to go in the first round.

2026 Team to Draft Makai Lemon Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalsh

The Rams At 33%

The Los Angeles Rams are coming off an incredible season where they fell just short of making the Super Bowl. The case for them drafting a top receiver in this year's draft like Lemon is strong because it would add another weapon to an already dangerous receiving corps. The Rams have the 13th overall pick, as well as pick #61 and pick #93. The opportunity to add another weapon for Matthew Stafford and this explosive Rams offense would be hard to pass up if Lemon is available at #13. 

Sean McVay has made it clear that the Rams could go in a few different directions depending on how the first 12 picks in the draft go. Pairing Makai Lemon with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams is going to be hard to pass up if the Rams have that opportunity. However, the Rams already have a good thing going with their current receiver room, so could the issues reported during Lemon’s combine keep this dynamic trio from ever becoming a reality?

The Dolphins at 30% 

The next team in projected to take Lemon is the Miami Dolphins, who currently have more of a need for an elite receiver than the Rams. Miami has undergone a complete identity shift losing many of their key pieces. This includes QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle and Head Coach Mike McDaniel.  What was once one of the NFL’s fastest and most explosive Wide Receiver rooms has been depleted and are looking for someone to rebuild around. 

The Miami Dolphins logo is seen at midfield prior to a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Dolphins are drafting with the 11th overall pick, as well as #43, #87 and #94 within the first 3 rounds. According to projections, Lemon should be available for them at 11 if that is the route they decide to go. It’ll be up to their front office to decide, is he the best talent on the board? And if they believe that is true, are they willing to take a chance with the off-field rumors. 

The Jets, Ravens, and Chiefs

All of these teams have meaningful chances based on Kalshi markets, and their position in the upcoming draft. The Jets represent an 18% chance to draft Lemon, while the Ravens are sitting at 17% and the Chiefs are down at 7%. The Jets could look to pair Lemon with star receiver Garrett Wilson. That duo could bring a new dynamic to their offense that is looking to be more competitive this year than they have been in the past. The Jets have the #2 overall pick, but that won’t be used to get Lemon. Their second pick at #16 is where Lemon becomes a realistic target if he slides down that far.

Baltimore has their first pick at #14 overall which is in a realistic range for the Trojans receiver, if he slides past the other few names on this list right in front of them at #11 and #13. The Ravens could be willing to move up in the draft if they identify him as their target early in this draft. Pairing up Lemon with Lamar Jackson’s offense would give one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league another weapon in the passing game. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have two picks in the first round, sitting at #9 overall and #29 overall. That means they honestly have a little more flexibility than their 7% figure on Kalshi represents. There is a very real possibility that he is available at #9 and they could be the first team interested at that point. Patrick Mahomes is going to be battling back after suffering an ACL and LCL tear at the end of last year, and he operated without a true No. 1 receiver for stretches of last season. There is a need for a playmaker, someone who can make life a little bit easier for Mahomes as he gets back to full health. The market at 7% shows that there is a possibility, but that early in the first round there is elite talent at any position. The temptation to grab any one of them makes it hard to guess if Lemon will be the player they target. 

The Bottom Line

This market is genuinely interesting because of how tight it is at the top, with both teams drafting right near each other and both showing clear interest. NFL teams don't seem to be turning away from him after his combine concerns, he likely has his impressive 2025 season to thank for that grace. He is still being considered early in this draft, but teams down in the draft wouldn’t be upset if they saw him start to fall to them. 

The combine could have cost him a few spots in the draft, but it doesn’t look like it will be a reason for him to fall out of the first round. We will expect to see his name go off the board in the top 20. The only question is which city will he be playing in?

The combine noise was loud. But the tape was louder. Somewhere in the top 20, a team is about to find out which one was right.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Thursday, April 2, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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