2026 NFL Draft First Wide Receiver Selected: Carnell Tate vs. Jordyn Tyson

The market has a frontrunner. It also has doubts. Three weeks from Pittsburgh, here's where the money is moving and who the market thinks will be the first wide receiver off the board.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) celebrates a touchdown Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025, during the Big Ten football championship against the Indiana Hoosiers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We are closing in on the 2026 NFL Draft being held in Pittsburgh this year, and the markets seem to have come to a conclusion on who they think will be the first wide receiver taken off the board. Carnell Tate, the Ohio State product who played alongside Jeremiah Smith, a star in his own right, sits around a 70% chance to be the first name taken. The market seems to have its mind made up, but with 3 weeks still to go a lot of movement can still happen. 

2026 Draft First Receiver Selected Probabilities According to Kalshi

Kalshi

The Case for Tate

It is pretty straightforward to see why Tate would be the first choice to be taken, in his junior campaign at Ohio State he produced an impressive 51 receptions and 875 yards to go along with 9 touchdowns. That averages an impressive 17.2 yards a catch, he proved to be a matchup issue for every team they played. In his class he performed very well, but he was still playing in the shadow of teammate Jeremiah Smith. Entering the draft he will look to step out of that shadow and show both the NFL and the world of his talent. 

The Buckeyes have had multiple first round wide receivers in recent drafts, 5 to be exact. That is the most from any school, and they have proved to be a goldmine for talent. The recent stars to come out of Ohio State include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave and Emeka Egbuka. That is an elite list of players, and soon we should see Carnell Tate's name added, and also projected to see Jeremiah Smith's name added next year as well. Ohio State has been on an incredible run, it will be exciting to see if they can keep producing some of the NFL’s top talent. 

The Tyson Problem

Arizona State wideout Jordyn Tyson (WO40) speaks to members of the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. | Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

While Tate has a dominant share of the market, the 26% for Jordyn Tyson means he is not being written off yet. That number actually tells us that the market is still undecided entirely, and it is telling a complicated story. The Arizona State receiver had a breakout year in 2024 and put up an incredible 1,101 yards on 75 receptions and 10 touchdowns. He has the talent, and an incredibly high ceiling, that is not the question surrounding his game. 

The problem for Tyson is his medical file which has become increasingly bigger each year. In the last few years he has dealt with a knee injury, a broken collarbone and a hamstring. These are all major factors scouts consider when making their decisions. In a class where we could see a few different names go first, the injuries are what's keeping him from having a higher chance. But I wouldn't count him out yet, the talent is undeniable and teams might be willing to take a chance that he stays healthy and they get the best version of him. 

The Longer Shots

There are still a few names left on the board that have a chance to go first in this class, although they are being priced at a deeper long shot and we’d likely have to see something major happen in the next few weeks for them to make the jump. KC Concepcion holds at 12%, Makai Lemon at 7%, and Denzel Boston at 4%. Each has a real first-round case and talent, but the market is pricing them below the other options at the top of this list. Makai Lemon especially had an impressive year on the football field, however some questions arose about his character during the NFL combine and he fell down the board. 

Watch the Movement

The most interesting things in the market are the numbers currently, although they do tell a convincing story. Rather the movement in the markets and how they adjust as we get closer to the opening night of the draft. Carnell Tate is down 5 points recently, but during that same window Tyson lost a huge 23 points. Not too long ago this was a closer race then the numbers suggest. As we get closer we should see even more movement as the numbers get even sharper. 

If the draft projections hold true and Tate comes off the board early, it'll be a clear cut market. But if a team is willing to overlook the injury history to Tyson, or Tate starts to slide longer than projected we will see the market get a lot more interesting in a hurry. Right now, Tate at 68% is the most confident answer, but we're all going to have to wait and find out at the same time on April 23rd. 

One receiver has to be picked first. Right now, the market says it's Tate. But the market has been wrong before.

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Accuracy note: Market data referenced in this article reflects information as of Thursday, April 2, 2026. Prediction market prices are live and shift continuously. Always verify current information directly at Kalshi.com and Polymarket.com before trading.

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