Beyond Kalshi and Polymarket — The Broader Prediction Market Industry

Prediction Markets 101, Part 5

Prediction Markets and Beyond / Predictions OnSI

Kalshi and Polymarket often receive the most attention in discussions about event contract markets. However, the broader ecosystem includes several other platforms that have shaped how forecasting markets operate today. Understanding these platforms helps provide context for how the industry developed and how it may continue to evolve.

PredictIt: The Political Forecasting Platform

PredictIt launched in 2014 and is operated by Victoria University of Wellington under a CFTC no-action letter. This regulatory framework allows the platform to operate for academic research purposes while imposing limits on contract size and market scope.

Individual positions are capped at $850 per contract per account, and markets primarily focus on political events. These limits reduce the financial exposure of participants while allowing researchers and observers to analyze how collective probability estimates evolve over time.

Because of its long operating history, PredictIt data has occasionally been referenced in academic forecasting research. However, the platform’s regulatory status has faced periodic scrutiny, and its long-term legal framework remains subject to regulatory interpretation.

Manifold Markets: Play-Money Forecasting

Manifold Markets operates as a play-money forecasting platform. Participants trade using a fictional currency rather than real funds. While no financial capital is at risk, the platform serves as an experimental environment for studying how groups estimate probabilities across a wide range of topics.

Markets on Manifold can cover a broad range of questions, including technology development timelines, economic indicators, and niche forecasting topics that may not attract liquidity on real-money exchanges.

Researchers and organizations sometimes use similar play-money forecasting systems internally to aggregate predictions and measure calibration over time.

Metaculus: A Forecasting Research Community

Metaculus functions less like a trading exchange and more like a forecasting research platform. Participants submit probabilistic predictions on long-term questions related to areas such as artificial intelligence development, global health risks, and geopolitical developments.

Participants are scored based on how well their predictions align with eventual outcomes. Over time, this scoring system produces a record of calibration and forecasting accuracy.

The platform publishes aggregated prediction data and historical forecasting performance, which researchers use to analyze collective forecasting behavior.

Sportsbook Operators Enter the Conversation

By late 2025, traditional sportsbook operators began exploring ways to incorporate event contract-style markets into their product offerings. FanDuel launched a limited rollout of a product called FanDuel Predicts in several jurisdictions, while DraftKings disclosed in regulatory filings that prediction markets could represent a potential area of future development.

These developments illustrate the growing attention that event contract markets are receiving from established operators in adjacent industries. However, regulatory interpretation and ongoing litigation will continue to influence how and where these products can be offered.

Robinhood and Distribution

Robinhood does not currently operate its own event contract exchange. Instead, it has partnered with Kalshi to distribute event contracts through its trading interface.

Because Robinhood already serves a large base of retail brokerage users, this integration has increased visibility for event contracts among participants familiar with financial trading platforms.

Robinhood has also announced plans to acquire LedgerX, a derivatives exchange. While it remains unclear how event contracts may fit into future product offerings, infrastructure ownership could potentially influence how platforms structure market access in the future.

Next: The legal landscape — why certain event contract exchanges operate under federal oversight while sportsbooks are regulated at the state level, and how courts are interpreting that distinction.

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