Why going for ‘1’ was the right call by Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin

Arizona’s 28-14 win over Texas Tech was the type of performance many have been longing for since Sumlin arrived in Tucson. There was nothing fluky about the

Arizona’s 28-14 win over Texas Tech was the type of performance many have been longing for since Sumlin arrived in Tucson. There was nothing fluky about the victory. Instead, it was good old fashioned, we’re bigger, stronger, faster, and smarter than you tonight football.

A key moment came early in the fourth quarter after an Arizona touchdown helped the Wildcats recapture the lead at 19-14. The decision, at the time, was to kick the extra point and go up 20-14, or try and go for the two-point conversion to take a more natural (and comfortable) seven point lead.

Arizona kicked the extra point.

Guess what? It was the right decision.

Had Head Coach Kevin Sumlin gone for the two-point conversion, multiple scenarios could have unfolded. Let’s take a look at each and then you can decide for yourself, in retrospect, if you still agree or disagree with Sumlin’s decision.

Scenario 1: Arizona goes for two and converts

A successful two-point conversion would put Arizona up by seven points. There’s nothing wrong with that, assuming it works. Leading by seven points, had Texas Tech scored, they almost assuredly would have kicked the extra point and tied the score at 21-21.

Scenario 2: Arizona goes for two and fails

If Arizona had failed the two-point try, a whole can of worms opens up. First, at 19-14, even if the Wildcats were to tack on a field goal to lead 22-14, Texas Tech would still only be a single possession away from tying the game with a touchdown and their own successful two-point conversion. Second, Texas Tech, in what proved to be a grind-it-out game, could have ended up winning by simply making two field goals for a 20-19 advantage. Finally, down by only five, had Texas Tech scored a touchdown, they would be up 20-19 even if they ended up missing the extra point.

To extend things further, even a second field goal by Arizona to lead 25-14 wouldn’t put the Wildcats completely in the clear. Leading by 11 points, Texas Tech would still have to score a touchdown, convert a two-point conversion, and also add a field goal to even the score at 25-25. Still, it would’ve been a better situation compared to Sumlin and Arizona simply kicking the extra point with just over 14 minutes remaining and instead set up a late-game scenario where the Wildcats would be leading by 12 at 26-14, or nine at 26-17, or 4 at 26-22.

Scenario 3 (the one that played out): Arizona kicks and makes the extra point

By settling for the extra point and taking a six-point lead, Sumlin actually provided Arizona with more options to win. First, a second touchdown would force Texas Tech to get into the end zone twice in order to win. This actually happened, and once Arizona went up by 12 points, going for two with just over four minutes remaining was like a free, zero-risk play for the Wildcats.

Second, leading 20-14, even if Texas Tech had scored a touchdown and made the extra point, Arizona would only be trailing 21-20. Hence, Arizona could theoretically win the game on nothing more than a made field goal. Heck, they could also win 22-21 on a defensive safety. If the Wildcats had attempted and failed on the two-point try leading 19-14, a touchdown by Texas Tech would officially demand the Red Raiders go for their own two-point conversion, leading 20-19. In this scenario where Texas Tech would take a 22-19 lead, a late-game Arizona field goal would only even the score at 22-22.

Trying to predict scoring scenarios, even if Texas Tech didn’t convert their own two-point try, would still have the Wildcats on the wrong side of several situations. Let’s say Texas Tech doesn’t convert and now leads Arizona 20-19. If the teams trade late-game field goals, Arizona loses 23-22. If the teams instead trade late-game touchdowns, Texas Tech would only need a made extra point to get to 27 points, while Arizona would need a touchdown and a two-point conversion to get to 27 points.