Pac-12 Stock Watch: Week 4

Breakdown of the rise and fall of conference teams as the 2019 college football season unfolds.

No fewer than six conference teams are in the national rankings this week, something that hasn’t happened for the Pac-12 since September 20, 2015. As a result, the conference appears deeper than usual, with no clear-cut favorites except perhaps Utah in the South Division. Fans will learn a lot more heading into this weekend’s slate that features some key head-to-head matchups, highlighted by Utah at USC, Oregon at Stanford, and Colorado at Arizona State.

*Arizona and Oregon State have open dates this weekend. The Wildcats host UCLA, while the Beavers are set to host Stanford next weekend.

Pac-12 Buys

#10 Utah (3-0, South 0-0)

Utah has held its first three opponents this season to fewer than 100 rush yards. In a college football world where defense takes a backseat to offense, Utah is doing things right in Salt Lake City. A big test comes this Friday in a nationally-televised Friday night game at USC. The Trojans are as up and down as anyone in the conference, but the Friday Night Lights effect will undoubtedly have USC inspired to produce an upset against a Utah club ranked in the Top 10 for the first time since 2015. Utah features an athletic, playmaking quarterback in Tyler Huntley, who has yet to throw a pick this season, and all-everything running back Zach Moss who is only 195 yards short of eclipsing Utah’s career rushing mark of 3,219 yards. Defensively, the Utes have the bulls up front and speed in the secondary to cause fits for opposing offenses. Utah’s conference schedule is tough, and we’ll know right out of the gate (at USC and home to Washington State) whether or not the Utes are the real deal, or just had a really dominant showing against non-conference opponents BYU, Northern Illinois, and Idaho State.

#16 Oregon (2-1, North 0-0)

Since losing a heartbreaker to Auburn to open the season, the Ducks outscored their next two opponents, Nevada and Montana, by a combined score of 112-9. A last second touchdown aside, the Ducks are basically a Top 10 team. The Ducks hope to get a leg up on traditional North Division rival this Saturday, with a chance to knock off the Cardinal on the road. Stanford definitely looks beatable, but the Cardinal are 20-7 under David Shaw following a loss and a perfect 5-0 coming off back-to-back losses. Oregon’s Justin Hebert has thrown a TD pass in a nation’s best 31 consecutive games and is coming off a 316 passing yards and 5 TD performance against Montana. Like any team taking to the road, the Ducks will need to strike balance between their ground and passing attacks, while slowing down a Stanford offense that will undoubtedly try to establish their own running game. A big reason is Oregon is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just a 51% of their passes this season. Stanford has struggled throwing the football, so expect to see Oregon load the box and dare the Cardinal to pass this weekend.

#19 Washington State (3-0, North 0-0)

The Cougars play host to UCLA this weekend. Enough said. I don’t know what the spread will be, but it will likely be too low. Wazzu is doing everything right thus far and should have little trouble with the Bruins barring a massive weather event. Quarterback Anthony Gordon has yet to throw for fewer than 400 yards this season. Granted, WSU’s three wins have come against New Mexico State (one of the worst teams in the country), Northern Colorado (I thought they only had a basketball team), and Houston (solid team, but not total gangbusters). Still, what Mike Leach has built in Pullman is a machine-like program that shows no signs of slowing down in 2019.

#22 Washington (2-1, North 0-1)

It’s difficult to harshly judge Washington for its 20-19 home loss to California. The game was seriously delayed and impacted by the weather. Plus, we all knew the Cal Bears would have a legitimate defense in 2019. The delays and weather most certainly played in Cal’s favor, up to and including the mass exodus of Husky fans unwilling to stick around for what otherwise would have been a raucous stadium. The bottom line is UW is solid on both sides of the football, which includes an experienced signal caller in junior Jacob Eason. What’s interesting is 22 Husky players have already made their FBS debuts this season, so UW might actually get better over the course of the season. This weekend they are at BYU, which won’t be easy (just ask USC). Additionally, although the conference slate doesn’t offer many breaks, Washington does get USC, Oregon, Utah and Washington State at home this season. Barring any upsets, these key home games should at least give the Huskies a fighting chance at a divisional title.

Pac-12 Holds

Arizona (2-1, South 0-0)

Arizona’s offense is clicking in the season’s early going to the tune of the nation’s fifth-best total offense (586 yards per game) and sixth-best rushing offense (307.7 yards per game). Both stats place the Wildcats tops in the Pac-12, which could bode well if Arizona is able to run the ball effectively when on the road against conference opponents. Scary, is Arizona’s defense, after a near decade-long hiatus, actually reappeared in last weekend’s 28-14 home win against Texas Tech. One solid defensive performance should not make anyone a believer, yet, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Wildcats do continue to show signs of life on the defensive side of the football. If they do, things could get interesting in a fairly wide open Pac-12 South. The road ahead won’t be easy, particularly against teams with physical offenses that have traditionally worn down Arizona, but it sure would be fun to see the Wildcats have a say in the race in late November with a home game against division favorite Utah and the ASU rivalry game up in Tempe.

#24 Arizona State (3-0, South 0-0)

As solid as rival Arizona’s offense has been, ASU’s defense has been that and more. The Sun Devils have only allowed 21 total points to its first three opponents this season. Better, no single opponent has scored more than 7 points, which includes ASU’s road win at No. 18 Michigan State last weekend. Opposite the Wildcats, if ASU’s offense dramatically improves, the Sun Devils suddenly become crazy good. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels has shown potential, leading ASU to a late-game touchdown drive that helped the Sun Devils defeat the Spartans for the second straight year. Coach Herm Edwards hopes the offense continues to gel. He’ll need it to with Colorado visiting this weekend. Will ASU’s defensive dam finally break against an equally physical Colorado squad? Will ASU’s offense truly break out at home in their Pac-12 opener? Interested eyes will be watching when the game kicks off on Pac-12 Network at 4 p.m. PST.

#23 California (3-0, North 1-0)

Despite being nationally ranked and despite having a ridiculously stingy defense, I won’t be sold on California until they play at Ole Miss this weekend. Theoretically, Cal should beat the Rebels. However, a road game in SEC country comes with a lot of challenges, more so than the challenges the Bears faces when they upset Washington in Husky Stadium earlier this season. Ole Miss is not a familiar foe, there likely won’t be a storm that delays kickoff until after the midnight hour on the east coast, and California’s offense will need to do way more than it has already this year to beat the Rebels and their impressive defensive line.

Colorado (2-1, South 0-0)

It’s hard to blame Colorado for last weekend’s overtime loss to Air Force. The Buffs were coming off an emotional win over long-time rival Nebraska, and the military academies are not the pushovers they once were in the early 2000’s. I had Colorado as a “buy” in the last report, but for now they remain on hold to see how they handle a significant test in the Pac-12 opener at No. 24 Arizona State. It should be a physical game between two schools that are trying to make a name on the defensive side of the field. If Colorado can employee the forever winning formula of being able to rush the football on the road and stop the run on defense, a win could have the Buffs poised for a run in the Pac-12 South.

Stanford (1-2, North 0-1)

I’m not sure what to make of Stanford. Losing to a UCF team on the road is not shocking. What is shocking is Stanford’s lack of identity through the first few games of the season. Stanford is typically a grind it out club that tries to overpower opponents with a devastating play action offense, predicated on a reliable running game and what always feels like a quintuplet of tight ends capable of making incredible catches and big runs after the catch. We simply haven’t seen that yet. Perhaps a home game against North Division rival Oregon will awaken the Kraken that seems to reside somewhere off the California coast. If it doesn’t, the Cardinal could be in real trouble with conference road games at Colorado and Washington State still on the schedule, along with home tilts against Washington, Arizona, California and Notre Dame.

Pac-12 Sells

USC (2-1, South 1-0)

A win on Friday night and suddenly the embattled Trojans will be the team to beat in the Pac-12 South as USC hosts tenth-ranked Utah in the newly renovated Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis is currently fifth in the FBS in completion percentage (.773), and has thrown for 715 yards and 5 TDs. However, Slovis has already been picked off four times, including last weekend’s devastating interception in an overtime loss to BYU. The Trojans have looked good in losses and bad in wins, so it’s difficult to determine just how good they are. However, Friday will provide a lot of answers in predicting how well the Trojans handle an upcoming slate that includes Utah, at Washington, at Notre Dame, Arizona, and at Colorado between now and October 25. I haven’t seen enough from the Trojans thus far to think they can handle that run of games well. However, I’ve also been around USC and the Pac-12 long enough to know that one should never underestimate USC when it comes to football and winning league titles. What does worry me is there is now more game film to study on their freshman QB, fans are calling for the firing of their head coach even if they do win games, and the AD just resigned. 

Oregon State (1-2, North 0-0)

It’s hard to take any Oregon State team seriously unless Mike Riley is the head coach. Riley seemed to have the magic touch when it came to the Beavers, but those days of defensive dominance and timely offense are long gone. Granted, OSU will mess up somebody’s season this year, but the occasional upset win won’t prevent the Beavers from doing anything but looking up at others in the North Division standings. Following their open date, OSU hosts Stanford next week. Normally, I’d put the Cardinal on upset alert. However, after last weekend’s beat down at the hands of UCF, as well as a likely looming loss to Oregon at home this weekend, I can see an angrier version of Stanford playing well in Corvallis two weeks from now.

UCLA (0-3, South 0-0)

UCLA is going to get slaughtered in Pullman this weekend. WSU’s Mike Leach has no love affair with the conference’s Southern California schools and won’t hesitate to run up the score against the Bruins if he can. The Bruins look absolutely hopeless thus far in starting the year 0-3 for the second straight season. What scares the heck out of me is a 0-4 UCLA team heading to Tucson next weekend. Yes, the Wildcats are in a bye week and yes Arizona is coming off a stellar defensive effort. However, Murphy’s Law almost mandates an Arizona letdown that results in a scoring slugfest with the Bruins and a potential UCLA upset that completely flips Arizona football back on its head after landing so squarely on its feet against Texas Tech.