All Hogs

Here's why upstart Memphis makes College Football Playoff after downing Hogs

Razorbacks' collapse could be key to mid-major Cinderella being invited to gridiron's big dance
Bob Stephens|
Memphis Tigers coach Ryan Silverfield has his team well positioned for a miracle run to the College Football Playoffs after upsetting Arkansas 32-31 Saturday at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Memphis Tigers coach Ryan Silverfield has his team well positioned for a miracle run to the College Football Playoffs after upsetting Arkansas 32-31 Saturday at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

In this story:

Arkansas RazorbacksMemphis Tigers

Sam Pittman's Arkansas Razorbacks got a lot of publicity Saturday but it was for all the wrong reasons.

Now it's Memphis receiving day-after attention as prognosticators evaluate whether the 4-0 Tigers will reach the College Football Playoff.

Even Sports Illustrated lists Memphis as a team on the rise, likely to receive votes for the first time this season in the AP Top 25 poll.

ESPN's College Football Power Index (FPI) gives little 'ol Memphis a robust 35.7% chance to reach the prestigious College Football Playoff.

That's the highest of any Group of Five (think mid-major) team. Others are Old Dominion (14.7),
North Texas (13.1), South Florida (10.6) and Tulane (7.1).

Memphis Tigers players and fans celebrate after winning the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Simmons Bank Liberty Stad
Memphis Tigers players and fans celebrate after winning the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Any of those schools have to win the American Football Conference to qualify for a shot at the playoffs.

Memphis has the easiest road to earning that title, with the FPI giving the Tigers a 42.4% chance to claim the conference crown.

New York Times predicts different 'Cinderella'

The New York Times gives Memphis less of a chance and predicts in its latest mock bracket that another AAC team will make the playoffs: Tulane.

My argument with that is Tulane plays at Memphis, which is why other predictors give the edge to the Tigers.

I predict Memphis wins that conference showdown with Tulane on Nov. 7 in a prime-time ESPN game.

Tulane suffered through a much different experience Saturday as the Green Wave traveled to play another SEC team.

Ole Miss hung a 45-10 whipping on Tulane, a result that solidified the Rebels' No. 13 national ranking.

Memphis dancing while Hogs struggle to go bowling

I say Memphis will reach the playoffs while Saturday's significant setback.

It's obvious now it'll be an uphill fight all season for Arkansas to even return to Memphis for a low-level bowl game, which is where the Hogs played last season.

To reach a bowl, the Hogs must win out at home against Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri.

My, my, just how on God's green earth did we get to this point?

The Hogs played in the earliest of TV windows, kicking off in Memphis at 11 a.m. Central time. Pittman's team was excellent for all but a minute of the first half and led by 18 points.

They coughed up what looked like an easy road win by blowing that big lead, worst collapse in college football this season, and lost 32-31.

You've surely read or saw how by now and it's painful for Hog fans to relive, but here it is:

  • Allowing a 64-yard touchdown run with 4:51 left.
  • Fumbling on the next possession inside Memphis' 10-yard line.
  • Surrendering a first down on third-and-eight with 59 seconds left.

Memphis back Sutton Smith dashed 64 yards on third-and-two from the Memphis 36, Xavian Sorrey missing a potential tackle for loss to stop the critical drive.

Arkansas back Mike Washington fueling a drive with 64 yards on five carries and a catch to get the Hogs inside Memphis' 10 for what looked like the decisive march, but he fumbled and the Tigers recovered.

Memphis reserve quarterback Arrington Maiden, only in the game because starting QB Brenden Lewis lost his helmet on the previous play, became a hero.

Maiden was instructed to run a cautious line plunge on third-and-8 from Memphis' 9-yard line. He determinedly broke free from a gang tackle scrum to gain 11 yards and ice the game.

The Razorbacks, their coaches, and devoted fans all suffered through a humiliating loss Saturday.

It might just lead to one of the most shocking teams possible reaching the College Football Playoff.

HOGS FEED:

Published
Bob Stephens
BOB STEPHENS

Bob Stephens won more than a dozen awards as a sportswriter and columnist in Northwest Arkansas from 1980 to 2003. He started as a senior for the 1975 Fayetteville Bulldogs’ state championship basketball team, and was drafted that summer in the 19th round by the St. Louis Cardinals but signed instead with Norm DeBriyn's Razorbacks, playing shortstop and third base. Bob has written for the Washington Post, Chicago Sun-Times, San Diego Union-Tribune, New Jersey Star-Ledger, and many more. He covered the Razorbacks in three Final Fours, three College World Series, six New Year’s Day bowl games, and witnessed many track national championships. He lives in Colorado Springs with his wife, Pati. Follow on X: @BobHogs56

Home/Football