Rogers Leaving Razorbacks Out of Top 5 QB Situation Not Ideal, But Makes Sense

Knee-jerk reaction will be anger, but SEC Network analyst has valid point

Author:
Kent Smith
Publish date:
Jul 17, 2023 7:16 PM EDT

In this story:

NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Earlier today during the afternoon session of SEC media days, a graphic listing the best quarterback situations in the SEC went up on the screen, immediately sending any Arkansas fans who wandered by the television without any context into an immediate tizzy.

The list, put together by SEC Network analyst Jordan Rogers read:
1. Georgia
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky

No Arkansas to be found. The initial impression is to think about the quarterback room in Fayetteville. Razorback fans are used to KJ Jefferson not receiving respect despite the fact he is in line to possibly break conference records set by former Florida quarterback Tim Tebow. That room includes Jacolby Criswell, a promising back-up transfer who is a dramatic improvement over either option from last season. It also includes freshman Malachi Singleton, who has displayed one of the most effortless arms complete with soft touch seen on the hill in quite some time.

If this were about who is taking snaps on Saturdays and who might have to hop in during an emergency, Arkansas would easily be a Top 3 situation. However, that's not what this is about. This isn't about security at the quarterback position. What Rogers is trying to convey is the best school to be at this season as a quarterback. In other words, if Jefferson, Jalen Daniels or Spencer Rattler could just pick up and go play for another team, where will they be most successful.

As much as Jefferson will be successful at Arkansas this season, the variables in other places are better. The six biggest factors in creating the perfect climate for ultimate quarterback success are schedule, offensive coordinator, offensive line, running game, defense and receivers.

Jefferson may have access to the best running game in the conference. Even if something were to happen to Raheim "Rocket" Sanders, there's a deep well of exceptional running back talent behind him. This keeps linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage, slows the rush ever so slightly and decreases reaction time of pretty much everyone past the defensive line against the passing game. It also provides Jefferson dangerous, high value options to flip the ball to if the pocket collapses and no running lanes open.

The second of those factors in the Razorbacks' favor is offensive coordinator. The Dan Enos offense provides Jefferson with numerous options while requiring extreme discipline by the defense in a much different way than the Kendal Briles offense. For starters, tight ends will factor into the game plan much more than before. Also, the balance between run and pass without being as visually clear whether it's a run or pass happen falls in the Hogs' favor also. There's so much going on at so many different levels that there's just no room to cheat or lose discipline and still stop it.

But that's where the known variables decidedly in the Razorbacks' favor stop. There is an assumption that the offensive line will be good because of the pedigree of Sam Pittman, but Pittman isn't the offensive line coach. He's helpful, but he's not the position coach. That's not to say Cody Kennedy isn't a great offensive line coach in his own right because there's been nothing to leave anyone to believe he's not pulling his weight in that role from the coaching standpoint.

Where the issue lies is how much of an unknown the offensive line is at Arkansas. This isn't a proven position group. There are a couple of proven parts on the line, but even those players aren't playing where they were featured last year. Brady Latham will return at left guard, but other than him, only Beaux Limmer isn't new to the huddle, and he's making the shift from right guard to center. Right tackle Josh Braun wasn't on the team last year, left tackle Devon Manuel's only experience is a couple of minutes of mop-up duty against Auburn, left tackle Patrick Kutas got some time in as a back-up last season as a freshman and tight end Var'Keyes Gumm is a newcomer who has never faced an SEC schedule.

This will probably turn out to be a great offensive line that will develop quality chemistry and depth, but it's hard to compare to situations where the line is loaded with third and fourth year players who have been through the SEC wars alongside one another. Analysts also think Gumm is going to be good in the SEC as a tight end. However, they know Brock Bowers can be great once again at Georgia.

If we're giving out stars for what is known about each of these five areas, Arkansas currently sits at 2.5 stars. And that's where it all ends. When it comes to receivers, the Razorback situation rates near the bottom of the league. The leading receiver returning to this team is Sanders who had 271 yards last year, most of which came on a couple of glorified hand-offs. Not only are the Arkansas receivers mostly inexperienced and unproven, a large portion of them, while larger than most SEC receivers, are also a great deal slower.

New chemistry has to be built and receivers have to adjust from facing lower level defenders to trying to beat guys who will be competing for NFL Rookie of the Year next season. One or two might pull it off, but the odds are low that Jefferson is suddenly throwing to a receiving corps that can rival what Alabama is going to put on the field this season.

The last factor that keeps Arkansas from being a Top 5 quarterback situation is schedule. It's the tipping point for the top three. Those quarterbacks get to practice against the best defenses college football has to offer as they spend months preparing, then, get to avoid facing them. Instead, a great defense comes off the board and is replaced with a secondary like Arkansas had last season. A low output stats day is replaced by one that will generate high numbers. No one can say that if Jefferson got to skip trying to take down Nick Saban's Alabama defense in exchange for taking a day to throw and run against Barry Odom's 2022 Arkansas defense that he wouldn't have had 350 yards passing and another 100 on the ground as opposed to 155 yards in the air and 38 on the ground.

Speaking of the Arkansas defense, last anyone saw of it, Kansas was hanging over half a hundred and the secondary was so bad that discussion of how much they made fun of its ineptitude behind the scenes at the SEC Network slipped out in conversation at SEC media days. No one knows if the Arkansas defense will be any better, but even with great improvement, it won't come close to the defenses the quarterbacks get to work with in the Top 3.

The Razorback defense didn't get off the field last year, keeping the ball out of Jefferson's hands. On top of that, when it did get off the field, it was because a huge play was given up, putting the Arkansas offense in obvious passing situations a lot of the time. Nothing good happens when teams know their opponent has to throw.

That being said, Arkansas fans shouldn't read too much into this. It doesn't mean Jefferson isn't going to have a dominant year. It doesn't mean the Razorbacks aren't going to win a lot of games. All Rogers is saying is that, on paper, there are places better for a quarterback's health and stat sheet than Arkansas.

Getting to see spring practices gave a lot of reasons to believe this perception is well on its way to changing, but for now, it is what it is. Until all these new players hit the field under their new coordinators, all the world has to go with is what was shown last year. And that was less than ideal, even with Jefferson taking the snaps.