NFL Draft Evaluations Show Jefferson Has Plenty of Room to Move Up By April

Perfect coordinator to fills holes in game, measurable evaluations not done since high school set Razorback quarterback up for potentially large jump

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Jul 7, 2023 10:44 AM EDT
Original:
Jul 7, 2023

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – As the upcoming football season creeps up slowly in the distance, one thing that will warrant attention is the growth of quarterback KJ Jefferson in his final season as a Razorback.

Yes, it will be interesting to see if he can eventually mow down a ton of school records. However, it will be far more intriguing to see if he can fill in the gaps the NFL sees in his game to become a complete quarterback by season's end. The good news for Arkansas fans is that if he can, not only will those school records fall, but the overall win totals will go up quite a bit also.

So we start with Jefferson's generic combine information according to NFLDraftBuzz.com:
Height: 6' 3" (53%)
Weight: 242 (96%)
40: 4.69 (78%)
Shuttle: 4.44 (19%)*
Vertical: 29 (19%)*

At first glance, Jefferson is slightly above middle of the pack on height, basically at the top on weight, in the upper quarter on speed, while falling near the bottom on shuttle and vertical. However, it should be noted those shuttle and vertical measurements are from around 2018 when Jefferson was in high school.

Immediately, we can tell that his size isn't going to be an issue so long as his hands measure out to something decent. That weight would be a red flag on other quarterbacks because of their smaller frame, but Jefferson carries it well. Coupling speed with size to go along with all of those tapes of him escaping the pocket and being able to absorb potential tacklers without going down will catch the attention of plenty of NFL executives.

Right now he has an overall rating of 86.6 on a 100 scale in composite draft rating, and is considered a stock is rising prospect. Repeating his stats from the year before this past season in two fewer games on the field while not having as strong of a receiving unit with which to do it is considered a feather in Jefferson's cap.

Additional good news for the Arkansas quarterback is how consistent his scores are in the various areas of the passing game.
Short passing: 81%
Medium passing: 85%
Long passing: 92%
Rush/Scramble: 81%

Those are solid numbers. That it gets better the further from the line of scrimmage his throws get is highly positive. That's a number one might expect to trend down instead of up. It's a big part of why his passer rating last year was a gaudy 115.4 for the season. The only perplexing thing about this is that his rush/scramble numbers are his lowest, when to a man, those who watch Jefferson note that as one of his strongest attributes. It should be noted that his numbers in this area are as good or better than most Top 10 quarterback prospects.

When evaluating his strengths, the first thing that jumps off the page is the long ball, which is probably why it's the first thing noted in the list of strengths.

"The deep ball is a strength for him. Jefferson can get it there, and Jefferson does a nice job dropping deep throws in with proper touch down the sideline."

Jefferson is heavily praised for his accuracy and ability to place the ball perfectly in front of receivers on short timing routes. The report also touts his touch on the deep ball, ability to anticipate throwing windows down field, and fit the ball into small windows with the proper amount of velocity. However, as anticipated, there is a lot of gushing about Jefferson when the throws aren't there also.

"He plays with a confident demeanor and has the athleticism to move out of the pocket and create plays out of structure."
"He’s a pure athlete, loose-limbed and flexible. He has the speed to pick up yardage in scramble situations."
"Jefferson is enough of a threat as a runner to earn respect from back-side defenders at the next level, opening opportunities for running backs."

Anyone who watched Jefferson during his early years knows this wasn't always the case. While offensive coordinator Kendal Briles stunted Jefferson's growth last season by not expanding upon his skill set, flowers are most certainly due in building his quarterback up until that point. Accuracy and poise were certainly not words that described Jefferson early on.

When he was forced into action those first couple of years, his ability to throw the ball was hard to watch at best. Jefferson could do so much with his legs even early on, but his throwing motion was messy, especially his freshman season. The best way to describe it was that he appeared to throw the ball blindly down field in a receiver's general direction and hope somehow that his man came away with it. Fortunately for Jefferson, Treylon Burks was down there for a few of those early throws to make an outstanding catch here or there.

However, Briles found a way to form a diamond out of coal, refining Jefferson's natural skills as much as possible in an offense built to take advantage of exactly that – natural skills. He never added to what Jefferson brought to the table, which has led to his most glaring weaknesses from an NFL standpoint. He's not been asked to do much as far as making reads and showing he can process mental adjustments in the midst of the chaos. He's also not been asked to evaluate what is unfolding while working from under center. These things haven't gone unnoticed.

"Jefferson will have to prove Jefferson can handle an expanded, multi-progression NFL offense."
"Jefferson has a bad habit of fading and throwing off his back foot when the pocket gets muddled, and he is too often all arm when throwing on the move, sacrificing accuracy."
"Has struggled with his decision-making and needs to improve his pre-snap recognition skills to read defenses and see blitzes. Doesn't decipher information as quickly as you would like, but does see the entire field and understands coverage."

Jefferson has shown that when asked to utilize a skill, he will not only adapt well to it, he will excel. These notes on weaknesses are more of a declaration that he wasn't asked to do those things and spend time working on them more than an indication of his potential to actually do them at a high level.

Fortunately for Jefferson, there has been a change at offensive coordinator. These are the types of things Dan Enos does ask of his quarterbacks. He's the perfect complement to Briles as far as helping Jefferson fill in the gaps in his game. The unfortunate side of the coin is that evolving that aspect of a player's repertoire is something that typically takes a few years. Jefferson will improve, but he would need to be Superman to finish with his ability to quickly make reads at an NFL level while going under center for the first time in his career.

Draft services have him going anywhere from No. 36 to No. 93 in the draft. Right now, Jefferson ranks behind Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and just above South Carolina's Spencer Rattler as NFL quarterback prospects at No. 8. That puts him behind familiar quarterbacks such as Tennessee's Joe Milton, Texas QB Quinn Ewers, and former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix.

The good news for Jefferson is many of the quarterbacks ahead of him have little to no room to evolve their games. They have plateaued. Even the ones who do have a little wiggle room don't have anywhere close to the room Jefferson has to improve.

If he can stay healthy and make the most of his time with Enos, Arkansas may not only be the biggest mover from a potential wins standpoint, but Jefferson will become one of the NFL draft board's strongest climbers. It will, no doubt, be an effort worth watching over the next 10 months.