Which Musselman Era Team Do Numbers Say Has Most, Least Talent?

Entering the season, this was regarded as the most talented Razorbacks roster of the past five years, but where do calculators place this team in recent Arkansas history?

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Jan 25, 2024 4:00 PM EST
Original:
Jan 25, 2024

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – There has been a lot of debate about how talented this current iteration of the Arkansas Razorbacks truly is.

When the season began, the hype behind this team was it would be the greatest collection of talent in the Musselman era from top to bottom. With the success players like Davonte Davis, Makhi Mitchell and Trevon Brazile had the previous season along with a vastly improved Jalen Graham, and a highly ranked transfer class with tons of experience, expectations were high.

Following the exhibition win over No. 1 Purdue, fans were euphoric. Then the season happened and key players disappeared. Chemistry fell apart, shots stopped falling and effort on rebounding and defense fell to nearly zero. Suddenly, fans began to question whether the team had talent as a whole to begin with.

The truth typically falls somewhere in the middle, but applying a bit of good, old-fashioned statistical research can shed a bit of light as to where this team compares to the other four teams of the Musselman era.

Are they the best offensively at...

POINTS PER GAME
No

At the moment, the current team is pretty high up the list in points per game. However, this average was generated off a non-conference schedule. Since Arkansas got into the SEC, that number has fallen to an abysmal 63.0 points per game with no reason to believe the overall average won't continue to free fall the rest of the season. Odds are high this year's Hogs finish dead last once the season is done.

20-21...81.4
23-24...76.2
21-22...75.9
19-20...75.8
22-23...74.1

SCORING MARGIN
No

Talk about a jarring statistic that shows just how far this team is from being comparable to even the worst of Musselman teams. That -1.3 points per game is with heavy padding from the non-conference. In SEC play that number plummets to -17.0 and there's no reason to believe it's going to improve. It's possible for the gap between this year and last year's team to stretch into the teens and beyond.

20-21...+10.1
21-22...+7.6
19-20...+6.2
22-23...+6.1
23-24...-1.3

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
No

Middle of the pack isn't a bad place to be for this team, especially considering how many combinations the Razorbacks have put on the floor. However, this isn't going to last long. Since the Hogs hit SEC play, that shooting percentage has dropped to 36.4%, which puts them on pace to be by far the worst shooting team of the past five years.

It might be a little shocking, but Arkansas' last Elite 8 team was the worst shooting team of the Musselman era. But not for long.

22-23...46.6%
20-21...45.1%
23-24...44.4%
19-20...44.3%
21-22...43.4%

3-POINT PERCENTAGE
No

Once again, middle of the pack isn't bad, and considering how hot some of these guys can get, perhaps they can avoid dropping to the bottom of the list. However, once again, the numbers aren't on their side. Since stepping up in competition with an SEC slate, three-point shooting has dropped to 26.9%. Mathematically, it would take a lot to fall below the 21-22 team, but this group certainly looks like it's ready to make a run at it.

19-20...33.4% (243)
20-21...33.2% (233)
23-24...32.3% (120)
22-23...31.3% (179)
21-22...30.4% (233)

FREE THROW PERCENTAGE
No
Here's one category where the team isn't in a race for the bottom. All signs point this being where the Razorbacks will finish when the season mercifully ends. Free throw shooting has dipped a little in SEC play, but it's only down to 70.6 percent, boosted heavily by that Texas A&M game.

21-22...76.0%
20-21...74.0%
23-24...71.7%
22-23...69.8%
19-20...69.0%

Can they handle the ball?

TURNOVERS GIVEN UP PER GAME
No

Oddly enough, Arkansas has made great improvements in this area. They are down to 10.7 turnovers per game in conference play, so it's possible they might move up this list.

20-21...11.1
19-20...11.5
23-24...11.8
21-22...12.2
22-23...12.7

ASSISTS PER GAME
No

No one should be caught off guard given the chemistry issues on this team that assists is firmly in last place. What might be surprising though is how much worse that number is about to become. The Razorbacks have fallen below double digits in assists against SEC competition at 9.8 per game. A perfect storm of poor communication, inability to anticipate movement of teammates and few shots actually being made will most likely lock this team in last for years to come.

20-21...14.6
21-22...13.8
22-23...12.8
19-20...11.9
23-24...11.5

OFFENSIVE REBOUNDS PER GAME
No

This was expected. With Musselman's first team the issue was height. Last year's team was young and needed to be taught this aspect of the game. This year the word most consistently used is effort. There just hasn't been a lot of it. Right now Arkansas averages 7.6 offensive rebounds per game, so the current Hogs look like they will be OK to hold steady at next to last place.

20-21...10.8
21-22...10.8
22-23...10.36
23-24...8.8
19-20...7.5

Are they the best defensively at...

POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME
No

The gap is wide and it's going to get wider. The Razorbacks are giving up 80 points per game, and that's with teams that aren't very good offensively blowing past their season averages. There's little reason to believe this year's group won't be more than 10 points worse than last year.

22-23...67.9
21-22...68.3
19-20...69.6
20-21...70.8
23-24...77.5

TURNOVERS FORCED PER GAME
No

Essentially, this team is on par with the Elite 8 team of two years ago as far as forcing turnovers. Perhaps the most perplexing thing is how a team that was originally built to play in Mike Anderson's version of 40 Minutes of Hell couldn't generate a higher average of turnovers under the Musselman system. As for the current team, things have held steady in SEC play, so this last place finish appears to be a lock, but the bright side is it isn't going to get much worse.

21-22...14.8
22-23...14.4
20-21...13.05
19-20...11.5
23-24...10.5

OPPONENT FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE
No

It is simply stunning to see how consistent the Razorbacks have been on opponent shooting percentage under Musselman. The last four seasons, even with all of the massive roster turnover, has been virtually the same. It also shows another data point to indicate how those two Elite 8 teams were simply mirrors of one another. However, it should be noted that current trends indicate this year's team will take over last place soon. The Hogs are giving up 44% shooting per game in SEC play.

21-22...41.2%
20-21...41.6%
22-23...42.4%
23-24...42.7%
19-20...42.8%

OPPONENT 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
No

Almost everything here plays out as expected. Lack of understanding on how to switch properly and sprinting toward shooters out of control only to go flying by leads to easy shots. That number goes up to 34.6% in SEC play, so this order won't be changing.
As for the other teams, deep runs in the tournament will hurt this score a lot. When you play national champion Baylor, Gonzaga and Duke, along with some streaky shooting mid-majors looking to become Cinderella, that number can get distorted.
However, seeing the smallest team of the Musselman era absolutely dominate this category is mind blowing.

19-20...27.2%
22-23...31.1%
21-22...32.4%
20-21...33.2%
23-24...33.7%

TURNOVER MARGIN
No

This is a stat that makes more sense with players originally brought to Arkansas to run Anderson's system. What doesn't make sense is how a team that is legitimately so athletic and has such long arms loaded with guys whose stars are built purely on ball handling skills and getting safely to the rack almost found itself in the negative on turnover margin. As for this team, this is a chemistry and effort issue again. No one knows where anyone will be when they pass and there's no effort on defense, so nothing is being done to balance it out. SEC trends indicate this will eventually drive to around -1.5 by year's end.

19-20...+4.5
21-22...+2.6
20-21...+2.2
22-23...+1.7
23-24...-1.3

BLOCKS PER GAME
Yes

Finally, something this team does well. This number might even go up since teams have zeroed in on how easy it is to drive rigth down the middle on Arkansas. That means there will be way more chances to generate blocks as SEC play continues.
As for the other teams, they predicated their play in the middle more on teams being afraid of getting a charge called on them rather than risk fouling on attempted shot blocks. Between rules changes and general difference in attitude on defense, charges aren't an option for this group.

23-24...6.6
22-23...5.1
21-22...3.46
19-20...3.17
20-21...3.14

STEALS PER GAME
No

Not to sound like a broken record, but lack of effort. Trending way down in SEC play. You know the drill. It's the worst and it's going to get worse as the year goes along.

22-23...8.4
21-22...6.59
20-21...5.65
19-20...5.33
23-24...5.2

OPPONENT REBOUNDS PER GAME
YES

Don't get too excited. An eventual last place finish is a no-brainer on this one. The Hogs give up 44 rebounds per game in SEC play. Everyone knows why, so no need to repeat.

22-23...33.0
21-22...34.9
20-21...35.8
23-24...37.5
19-20...38.3

So how does all this information break down?

NUMBER OF FIRST PLACE FINISHES

20-21...5
22-23...4
21-22...3
19-20...3
23-24...1

NUMBER OF LAST PLACE FINISHES

20-21...1
21-22...2
22-23...2
19-20...4
23-24...7

OVERALL AVERAGE
20-21...2.38
21-22...2.5
22-23...2.81
19-20...3.44
23-24...3.88

FINAL CONCLUSION

This started out as a way to determine just how talented the current iteration of the Razorbacks happens to be. And while that has been done, the unexpected discovery was how equally talented Musselman's two Elite 8 teams were is an added bonus.

Obviously, both went to the Elite 8, but time and time again they ended up with the exact same statistics, which seems borderline impossible. As for the current Hogs, the numbers show this is the least talented group Musselman has had by a large margin and the gap is growing wider by the game.

Yes, some of that is about effort, but effort is essentially a talent also. Having the talent to push through when things are hard is important. Besides, the numbers are bad across the board. Effort only contributes to so much. For several of these categories, the numbers are exactly what a team's talent says it is.

So, there you go. The statistics are what they are, and as my high school trig teacher used to say, the numbers don't care about anyone's feelings.