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Illinois Appears to Be Perfectly Built to Take on Razorbacks

Yet, Arkansas perfect team to destroy Illini also in pairing of each team's kryptonite

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Mar 16, 2023 7:07 AM EDT
Original:
Mar 15, 2023

In this story:

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – If NCAA Tournament games were played on paper, there wouldn't be much use in the Arkansas Razorbacks showing up.

Illinois beat No. 2 seed UCLA by nine, beat No. 2 seed Texas by seven, and erased a 21-point deficit to No. 1 seed Purdue to tie it at 67-67 with less than a minute left before the Boilermakers found a way to scratch out a win.

As for Arkansas, the Razorbacks only have a single win over teams seeded in the Top 6, and that's a Thanksgiving week overtime win over No. 5 seed San Diego State.

However, there is a chance.

The line-up that Illinois played against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament is one that will definitely give the Razorbacks trouble inside.

Forward Coleman Hawkins is a bigger, stronger Jalen Graham, but without as much quality footwork.

Forward Dain Dainja is a mountain of a man who is going to bull his way down to the block and punish guys while he knocks down the lay-up. He plays with a power and toughness that Arkansas has shown it can't handle for extended periods of time.

Then there's forward Matthew Mayer, a former Baylor Bear who likes to back down the smaller guys he tends to draw when he's on the floor.

Arkansas doesn't have the size and strength to stop Illinois if the Illini are patient enough to keep working the ball inside. On top of the power and strength, Illinois is really good at securing good positioning for offensive rebounds that result in second and third cracks at lay-ups.

Fortunately for the Razorbacks, Illinois does eventually get bored with dropping it down to the big men, so if the Mitchell twins can hold their own for a while, the game can tip back in the Razorbacks' favor.

When it comes to guard play, Arkansas has a significant advantage. Overall, Illinois is the least athletic Power Five team Eric Musselman's team will face this year.

The Illini may be big and powerful, but they are also slow. This team struggles against quick, athletic guards.

At times, if Illinois players get in too big of a hurry, they look like giraffes on roller skates as limbs start heading in all kinds of unnatural directions.

The big men also tend to get their feet stuck in the ground and are slow to react. The hard cutting and crisp, quick passing this team does so well is something Illinois cannot defend.

Fortunately for Illinois, Arkansas also doesn't have the patience and selflessness to keep expending energy on making cuts while passing up one-on-one match-ups to dish it to an open Razorback on the backside.

Time and again, the Hogs build momentum and a lead taking advantage of their length, agility and superior court vision. However, they soon lose patience and drift into becoming a jump shooting team or getting caught up in watching one guy dribble down and make it about stopping him instead of the whole team.

Illinois will counter that Arkansas run with a smaller, quicker line-up. That group will have nowhere near the height, nor athleticism, the Razorbacks bring to the table.

However, if Arkansas loses discipline on defense, Illinois will start raining down threes at an alarming rate. That's what happened to Purdue.

If that occurs, then it's lights out for the Razorbacks. The only shooters Arkansas has will be firmly planted on the bench watching everything unfold.

The X-factor will be officiating. Anyone who has watched a Big Ten game this year knows that if an SEC officiating crew were to call Thursday's game, all that power in the middle would be fouled out five minutes into the second half, and that's after multiple trips to the monitor.

Illinois is not a team built for a tightly called contest. While Arkansas hasn't handled close officiating well, it at least has extensive experience.

If officials swallow their whistles a bit, that will favor Arkansas early on, but as the game wears on, the physical toll on the Razorbacks could be too much. For a team that brought in a starting five's worth of Top 100 recruits, Musselman has developed his team in such a way that it might have the least reliable depth of any team in the tournament.

If players start getting hurt, there's no one with significant experience or development coming off the bench. If Arkansas has to go more than seven deep for more than a minute or so, it could be lights out for the Hogs.

So, for all the people out there trying to figure out their brackets, this one leans toward Illinois.

But, if Arkansas decides to play as a true team the entire 40 minutes, it could be a blowout in the Razorbacks' favor.

Good luck picking your bracket.