Predicting How Far Arkansas Advances in First Weekend of NCAA

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The road to the Final Four in Indianapolis starts in Portland, Oregon for the No. 4 seeded Arkansas Razorbacks after winning the SEC Tournament Championship.

Coach John Calipari didn't agree with his team's seeding Sunday, but he isn't going to dwell on it or lose any sleep over it. The Razorbacks hardly had any time to rest after defeating Vanderbilt, getting back home at 2 a.m. early Monday morning, but Calipari says he will use it to his team's advantage going into the first round against Hawaii on Thursday.

“Either they gotta fix that within the committee, or we gotta play on Saturday,” Calipari said. “Forget about lead-in to the [NCAA Tournament Selection Show].

"We’ve gotta do what’s right for our young people. What you’re saying, that’s hard on me, but think about playing. We played three games in less than three days, we got back at two in the morning last night because of the weather, and we’ve got to leave at eight tomorrow to go play this game.”

Just to emphasize things, he kept going for a minute.

“I’m not complaining, because we’re playing, we’re a four-seed, let’s go,” Calipari said. “I’ve had stuff thrown at me before. You know that. And that kind of gets me going.

"You try to slow my team down by putting the barriers up, and alright, we’re putting our shoulder through that. But this is hard. This is going to be a hard run. Hawaii’s good. I’m not worried about anything else but them. I’m watching tape and trying to get focused.

After winning an SEC championship on Sunday @RazorbackMBB will turn around for a Thursday NCAA Tournament game on the other side of the country. @CoachCalArk joins @MadDogUnleashed and sounds off on the downside of conference tournaments concluding on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/yS1Ufp32Uw
— Mad Dog Sports Radio (@MadDogRadio) March 16, 2026

Calipari appears to be refreshed, others call it his rebirth as a coach early on in his Arkansas tenure. Kentucky faithful acted like its former hall of fame coach lost his swagger, but ended up being best for both sides for a mutual separation.

With the SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff in tow running the show, stellar guard play often helps teams advance through the tournament every year. His presence alone should be enough to get by Hawaii without a hitch.

Of course, there have been those first weekend blunders in recent years such as Oakland and St. Peter's. But it had to be a sigh of relief for him as his underdog Arkansas squad upset No. 7 seed Kansas Jayhawks and No. 2 seed St. John's Red Storm to make the Sweet 16 in Year One.

That run sparked expectations to rise even further in this tournament as a No. 4 seed against the Rainbow Warriors. The Razorbacks won't be on island time, but it's certainly close enough out in the West Region.

Arkansas Razorbacks coach John Calipari speaks with media members during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Hawaii employs what's called a "drop" defense, a type of scheme built around man-to-man defense with little to no help at anywhere on the floor. Arkansas touts the No. 4 scoring offense in the nation while also ranking No. 5 in offensive efficiency in the regular season, according to KenPom metrics.

This game could be a close one throughout the first half as most games should be in the NCAA Tournament. However, it feels like the Razorbacks will take care of business in round one.

Final: Razorbacks 75, Warriors 52

Arkansas' second round opponent will be No. 5 seed Wisconsin. Veteran coach Greg Card's squad that doesn't fit the mold of your daddy's Big Ten teams either.

This group is propped up by sharpshooting three-point artists Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, a combination of guards who have attempted more than 400 shots beyond the arc this season. Still, the Badgers' play a physical brand of basketball and aren't afraid to drive downhill, inviting contact at the rim.

Wisconsin has battled this season featuring victories over the likes of Purdue, Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State. Card's team has also played a few clunkers this season against BYU, Nebraska, Villanova, USC and Oregon.

In some ways, the Razorbacks and Badgers are built in similar ways which should make this one of the more watchable Round of 32 games on the docket for Saturday.

Arkansas probably has a slight defensive edge here, and should take of business to reach the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season.

FINAL: Razorbacks 82, Badgers 74

A victory over Wisconsin likely gives Arkansas a highly anticipated showdown against No. 1 seeded Arizona for a chance to advance to the Elite Eight.

Both the Razorbacks and WIldcats boast high-scoring offenses. However, the Wildcats have faired much better defensively, ranking No. 6 in efficiency by KenPom.

Final: Razorbacks 75, Warriors 52

FINAL: Razorbacks 82, Badgers 74

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