After struggling early, Auburn is the hottest team in college baseball
March 19th, 2023 was the low point for the Auburn Tigers.
The season started well enough - taking two out of three against Indiana, getting a run-rule victory against North Alabama on the road, winning two (and tying the third) in a weather-relocated series against USC, and then a sweep of Lipscomb.
But the cracks were already starting to show - Indiana scored eleven runs on Auburn in their game three victory. USC scored twelve in game three. Lipscomb put up seventeen over the weeked.
And then there were the walks. Auburn gave out 46 free passes in those first eleven games, with another sixteen "freebies" from either hit-by-pitch or wild pitches.
Teams started to take advantage of Auburn's pitching woes, culminating with a seven game stretch where they lost two series (home vs Southeastern Louisiana and on the road at Arkansas), won only two games (one of which was in extras against Georgia Tech) and gave up 49 runs while scoring only 34. Arkansas closed the brutal stretch fr Auburn with a sweep, including a shutout in game three.
To compound the issue, injuries were mounting. Joseph Gonzalez, the ace of the staff, didn't pitch after Opening Weekend, where he gave up only two hits in five innings against Indiana on a ridiculously effective forty-one pitches. Left fielder (and "Legacy Group" member) Bobby Peirce missed time with a hamstring issue, as did SS Cole Foster (abdominal), 1B Cooper McMurray (ankle), LHP Tommy Sheehan (bone spurs), and RHP Chase Isbell (oblique).
Auburn's pitchers, at one point, had a combined ERA of 6.45 and a conference ERA of 8.83, worst in the SEC. They had walked 157 batters, and were allowing an opponent batting average of .287 (.326 in conference). Auburn was sitting at .333 winning percentage in the conference, and was projected to barely make the SEC Tournament and completely miss the postseason Field of 64.
This team was left for dead. All of the preseason predictions, that Auburn would be the last-place finisher in the SEC West, looked to be rather prescient.
What changed?
And then, a few things happened: Tommy Vail and Christian Herberholz entered the weekend rotation, and Auburn's hitters got healthy.
Auburn's ERA in the last four weeks of conference play, with Vail and Herberholz starting, dropped from 8.83 to 5.02. As the new ace of the rotation, Vail put up a 1.31 ERA over the last four weekends, and lowered that further after eight innings of two hit, one run ball last night. Herberholz entered the weekend rotation and is tied for third in the SEC with a 2.00 ERA the last four weekends. In conference play, "Herbie" leads the team (and is third in the SEC) with a 2.45 ERA.
Vail and Herberholz keyed a weekend rotation that collected back to back series wins against the #2 team in the nation (South Carolina, on the road) and #1 team (LSU, at home, their first series loss of the season). It was the first time, as far as team records indicate, that the Tigers had ever beaten the top-ranked team in program history.
The Auburn pitching staff held LSU to a season-low 11 runs in the series, with a collective 3.12 ERA on the weekend.
Auburn's hitters were the key to the defeat over South Carolina - Vail and Herberholz performed admirably, combining to allow only three runs in nine innings - but Auburn hit ten homeruns in the series and outscored the Gamecocks 24-15. The entire pitching staff did their job, as well: The powerful South Carolina offense, 2nd in the country entering that series with 92 homeruns, hit only two on the weekend.
That Auburn offense, finally with everybody healthy, has become a juggernaut in recent weeks, scoring 24 runs in the first two games of the Ole Miss series and picking up two run-rule victories in the last three games. Senior Bryson Ware is one homerun away from twenty on the season, which would make him only the seventh player in program history to accomplish the feat. Cooper McMurray has three multi-homer SEC games since April 7th, only the third time an Auburn player has accomplished the feat in modern history (2010, both Brian Fletcher and Hunter Morris).
How they did it
But if you've read anything I've written this season, you know that head coach Butch Thompson has harped on three things: Producing the biggest inning, passing out the fewest freebies, and having the most baserunners.
Auburn's excelled as of late at all three.
The team that has produced the biggest inning in Auburn's games is 35-6 on the season entering this weekend, and Auburn did it twice in Friday's doubleheader.
The team with the fewest freebies is 25-12-1, and Auburn also did that twice in Friday's doubleheader.
The team with the most baserunners is 33-9-1, and Auburn also did THAT twice in Friday's doubleheader.
(Note: Those don't total up to the same final number because sometimes the teams have tied in one or multiple categories.)
Postseason projections
With the three straight series wins, Auburn's up to 23rd in RPI and sitting at at 3rd in the SEC West, with projections entering the weekend having them as a 3 seed for the field of 64. D1Baseball.com has Auburn traveling to the Storrs Regional as a 3 seed, hosted by 1 seed (and #16 overall) Connecticut, while Baseball America has Auburn as a 2 seed in the Winston-Salem Regional, hosted by overall #1 Wake Forest.
With a winnable final series against Missouri next weekend in Plainsman Park, Auburn's already punched their ticket to the SEC Tournament. What's at stake now is seeding: The top four teams skip the single-elimination first round. As of now, that projects to be Arkansas (18-7), Vanderbilt (17-8), LSU (17-7), and Florida (16-9). Auburn sits in 8th place at 13-13, behind South Carolina (14-10), Kentucky (14-11), and Tennessee (13-12). Auburn's not going to get a Top Four seeding without a LOT of help, but they've done everything right.
What's next?
Auburn goes for the series sweep this afternoon in Oxford. First pitch from Swayze Field is scheduled for 2:00PM, and the game is being broadcast on SEC Network. The radio call, with "Voice of the Tigers" Andy Burcham and Brad Law, is available locally on 93.9FM, online at AuburnTigers.com, or on the Auburn Athletics app.
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