Previewing Auburn's second-round matchup in the SEC Tournament against Vanderbilt
Long after the kids went to bed last night, Cole Foster's homerun finally landed somewhere on the outskirts of Hoover and Auburn dispatched Missouri, 10-4, to advance out of the single elimination first round of the SEC Tournament.
Their reward? A date with #4 Vanderbilt.
Vandy stumbled late in the conference schedule, dropping four straight games and six of eight entering the final weekend, but recovered to take the final two games of the Arkansas series to finish 19-11 in conference and cement a national seed in the NCAA Tournament. D1Baseball.com, entering the tournament, had Vandy as a #7 national seed, hosting (2) Duke, (3) UC-Irvine, and (4) Lipscomb in Nashville for regionals. Baseball America, who is dynamically updating their predictions throughout this week's conference tournaments, has Vandy and Lipscomb in the same place, but replace the #2 and #3 seeds in that regional with Oregon State and Kansas State, respectively.
How Auburn and Vanderbilt's seasons match-up
The Tigers and Commodores didn't meet this season, but Auburn won a three game series, 2-1 in Plainsman Park last season. They've got several common opponents in 2023, with varying levels of success. Auburn dropped two out of three to Florida, but Vandy got swept. Auburn got swept early in conference play vs Arkansas, while Vandy won two out of three to end the regular season.
Against common conference opponents in the regular season, Auburn went 14-10, scoring 191 runs and allowing 121. Vanderbilt went 16-8 against that same slate, scoring 187 and allowing 121. Auburn's runs allowed looks worse because of a blowout game three to Georgia, who dropped 24 on the Tigers, while Vandy's run differential is helped by a sweep of Mississippi State earlier in conference play where they scored 55 runs across three games while the Bulldogs and head coach Chris Lemonis were looking for pitchers that could be competitive in conference play.
If you add in non-conference common opponents, Auburn finished 20-11 with a +103 run differential (250 runs scored, 147 allowed), while Vanderbilt was 19-9 with a +100 run differential (225 scored, 125 allowed).
How Auburn and Vanderbilt compare statistically
Offensively, Auburn seems to have a slight edge on Vandy, with the Tigers doing a better job at getting on base, driving in runs, and hitting home runs. The Commodores have Auburn beaten on stolen bases, largely thanks to projected 1st round CF Enrique Bradfield and his 34 stolen bases in 40 attempts.
| Batting Average | On Base Percentage | Slugging | Home Runs | Extra Base Hits | RBIs | Stolen Bases | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn | .294 | .395 | .491 | 78 | 194 | 372 | 41/51 |
Vanderbilt | .274 | .378 | .447 | 67 | 173 | 344 | 72/89 |
On the mound, the full season stats favor Vanderbilt, with their pitchers holding a lower ERA, more strikeouts, and a lower opponent batting average allowed. Auburn's done a better job at preventing the long ball, but also allowed more extra-base hits.
| Team | ERA | Ks | HRs / XBH | Opponent BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn | 5.84 | 463 | 53 / 156 | .271 |
Vanderbilt | 4.30 | 526 | 62 / 141 | .218 |
Obviously, the caveats here are that both teams have had ebbs and flows to their season: Vanderbilt was rolling through conference play early, stumbled at at the midpoint, and recovered on the final weekend. Auburn started off cold in conference play and surged to become the hottest team in the country over the back half of the schedule, taking series away from the #1 and #2 teams in the country and winning their last eight games.
We don't have probable pitchers, officially, at this point, but it's expected that Auburn will be throwing Chase Allsup. The big righty from Dothan has emerged late for Auburn as a reliable high-velo guy in the rotation, partly thanks to a new slider grip that allows him to not only better control it for strikes, but command it to specific targets set by catcher Nate LaRue.
How to Watch Auburn Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores in the SEC Tournament
It's the fourth game of the day, so prepare for more Auburn After Dark. First pitch is officially 30 minutes after the conclusion of game three, scheduled for 4:30PM between #1 Florida and #9 Alabama. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network and available for streaming on SEC Network+, with Auburn being the away team.The radio call, with Voice of the Tigers Andy Burcham and Brad Law, is available locally on 93.9 FM, online at AuburnTigers.com, or streaming on the Auburn Athletics App.
If Auburn defeats Vanderbilt, they'll face the winner of today's Florida vs Alabama matchup, and that will also be the last game on Thursday. If Auburn loses tomorrow night, they'll face the loser of that Florida/Alabama game at midday on Thursday, with the loser being eliminated from the tournament.
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