Auburn baseball deals with injuries as they prepare for #3 Arkansas

After a weekend series against consensus #1 Tennessee where Auburn became only the 2nd team to take a game in Lindsey Nelson Stadium and was in all three games late, Auburn baseball’s now looking at a Top 5 ranking in RPI and has an inside track on hosting a regional, provided they handle business in their three remaining SEC series.

RPI, the “rating performance index”, is a quantifiable scoring used to rank NCAA sports teams based on wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It is used in multiple D1 sports, including soccer, lacrosse, and volleyball (It has been replaced by NET for the NCAA basketball tournament, a more developed formula that also encompasses scoring margin and overall efficiency).

The general RPI formula is a weighting of team winning percentage (25%), opponent winning percentage (50%), and winning percentage of the opponents of your opponent (25%). For baseball, further weight is given in the formula to road performance – a home win is credited at 0.7 of one game and a road victory at 1.3, owing to NCAA baseball’s 62% home winning percentage. (Neutral site games remain at 1.0).

Owing to their heavily weighted home schedule – Auburn has played 26 games at home, 14 away, and 5 at neutral sites – as well as fewer P5 non-conference matchups, Auburn’s RPI entering the Tennessee series was outside the Top 25, but picking up a Game 2 victory provided a boost. Auburn left the weekend at #3 in RPI, and has barely been edged by Georgia after Tuesday’s midweek action and currently sits at #4. As previously discussed, eighteen conference wins is seen as the milestone required to host a regional - Auburn is looking for six wins across their next nine matchups, beginning with #3 Arkansas at home this weekend in Plainsman Park.

Auburn head coach Butch Thompson is aware of the upcoming challenge that Arkansas poses this weekend.

“(They’re) solid across the board. They continue to play great defense, they’re getting great starting pitching. They’re actually the #2 pitching staff in the SEC (behind Tennessee).”

Thompson’s primary concern is the increased pressure on the starting pitching to keep Auburn in ballgames. “We’ll have to pitch at a high level because we’re facing one of the best pitching staffs and we’re going to need to fight to score runs because they haven’t given up many runs.”

Compounding that pressure is the availability of starting pitcher Hayden Mullins and closer Blake Burkhalter. Mullins, who left Friday’s Game one against Tennessee after only 1.2 innings with a forearm injury, is not expected to be available this weekend.

He’s previously dealt with strains to the flexor mass in the pitching arm, a collection of muscles and tendons that connect the elbow to the wrist. Flexor mass strains are sometimes precursors to ulnar collateral ligament tears in the elbow, an injury that requires season-ending Tommy John surgery and 12+ months of rehabilitation – trying to return too quickly can put stress on the surrounding structures and result in damage to the UCL.

Mullins is scheduled to receive further testing during the week to diagnose the exact issue and develop a treatment plan. Closer Blake Burkhalter is questionable for the weekend series, with a hamstring strain also suffered in Game one, and a decision will be made about his availability on Thursday after practice. He was reportedly playing catch on Tuesday, and is considered 50/50 for inclusion on the weekend roster.

With Mullins expected to miss the weekend series, that Friday night start is expected to come down to Mason Barnett. Lefty Tommy Sheehan was the first on in relief of Mullins, throwing 2.1 innings in short notice with no hits, no runs, and only two walks, but Barnett’s considered the “fourth starter” by the coaching staff and is someone they trust on the bump.

Over the last four midweek games, he’s allowed only four runs on thirteen hits, with 24 strikeouts to 8 walks in 17 innings. I’d expect Barnett to start with Sheehan designated as a “piggyback” if the outing goes shorter than expected – Barnett hasn’t recorded an out in the 6th in any of his starts this year, with an average depth of start of only 4.2 innings.

If Burkhalter cannot go this weekend, fellow reliever Carson Skipper will become even more important, but another bullpen arm will need to step up. Sophomore lefty Konner Copeland answered the call last weekend, recording the final six outs of Auburn’s Game 2 comeback win against Tennessee. He struck out two, and sat down Tennessee’s #s 3 and 4 hitters, who represented the tying run, to end the game. Kopeland’s bounced back and forth between starting and relief, being the opener for both Wednesday midweek matchups (Alabama State and Kennesaw State) but also appearing in relief against LSU, Mississippi State, Jacksonville State, and Tennessee.

He’s a possible backend option to pair with Skipper and freshman Chase Allsup, who only pitched in one SEC game in April, a 1.1 inning outing in game two against Tennessee with only two hits and one run allowed, but someone who currently has a 2.41 ERA on the season across 14 appearances and, outside of a four-run blowup against Ole Miss, has not allowed more than one run in any outing this year.

Offensively, Sonny DiChiara and Blake Rambusch continue their dominant ways at the top of the lineup. DiChiara continues to lead the league and nation in batting average (.436) and on-base percentage (.597), and leads the SEC and is 3rd in the nation in slugging percentage (.842).

Rambusch continues to lead the SEC in hits with 67 and is tied for the league lead in hits during conference play with 33. But two midseason additions to the lineup have picked up their offense in recent weeks. Catcher Nate LaRue lead the team with a .333 average last week, including collecting hits in all three games against Tennessee and started the ninth-inning rally in game two’s victory with a leadoff single. Outfielder Bobby Pierce led the team with five hits last week, including two homers, and drove in six. His two-out, ninth inning three-run homer sealed the comeback in Game 2 against Tennessee and his six RBIs last week were a team-high. His defense and speed have been a welcome addition to the lineup, especially after two injury-marred seasons that included surgery on both knees.

Auburn faces off against #3 Arkansas for a three-game set at Plainsman Park this weekend. Game one is Friday at 7 PM, Saturday’s game two is at 4:30 and being broadcast on SEC Network, and Sunday’s series finale is at 1:00 PM. All three games will be available on SEC Network+, and the radio call with Voice of the Auburn Tigers Andy Burcham and producer Brad Law can be heard on the Auburn Sports Network, streamed online at available locally on 93.9FM.