Five things to know about every SEC basketball team heading into conference play
It's almost that time.
SEC basketball conference play is about to begin. Arguably the deepest league in college basketball will start going head-to-head in early January. There will be upsets. There will be chaos.
There will be gooey fries, chicken nuggets, ice cream, and more had by fans after a backup center misses two free throws in the second half of a 15-point road loss.
It's all going to be beautiful.
As we prepare for the best this league has to offer, here are five things to know about every SEC team as we approach the conference slate.
Tennessee (9-3) is the best team in the conference... according to KenPom
No. 6 KP, No. 7 NET
- Defeated 2 teams ranked inside the top 15 on KenPom (Wisconsin, Illinois)
- Three-game losing streak vs Purdue, Kansas, UNC by avg of 7 points
- No. 4 defense in the nation
- One of the shortest teams in the SEC (Missouri is shorter)
- MVP: Dalton Knecht (15.7 PPG, 37.7% 3PT)
The Vols have been a favorite of computer models since the beginning of the season (KenPom, Torvik) and have nabbed a couple of big time non-conference wins to strengthen their resume.
If UT had defeated Purdue, they'd have a strong case to be the clear frontrunner to win the SEC. Rick Barnes' defense has once again been smothering opponents. They'll look to lean on that side of the ball during the SEC slate.
Alabama (7-5) has a deceptive record
No. 8 KP, No. 9 NET
- Offense is No. 1 in the nation (Avg. Poss. Length is 14 seconds)
- Bama is top 35 in Eff. FG%, Off. Reb%, 3P%, 2P%, FT%
- All five losses to top 27 teams on KP (OSU, Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, Arizona)
- Projected to win nine of their next 10 games (loss to UT), 16-6, 8-1 SEC
- MVP: Mark Sears (19.6 PPG leads SEC, 53.5% FG, 44.4% 3PT)
The Crimson Tide know how to score the rock. They can do this extremely well. They do not, however, know how to play defense without fouling. Four of Alabama's five losses have witnessed at least 28 free throws taken by the opposition.
Mark Sears is one of the best guards in the nation. He leads the fast-paced Tide in scoring, assist rate, and has the best true shooting percentage among UA's starters. Nate Oats needs other players to step up and create stops.
Auburn (9-2) is extremely balanced, which can be dangerous
No. 10 KP, No. 21 NET
- Lost to Baylor, App St., schedule hasn’t provided big time opportunities
- Trounced USC, Indiana, and Virginia Tech
- Elite guard play at times (Aden Holloway, Tre Donaldson can occasionally outplay almost any guard in the SEC)
- Top 18 in Adj. Efficiency on both offense and defense
- MVP: Johni Broome (14.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG)
The Tigers lack a big non-conference win but throttled three solid opponents, including Isaiah Collier and USC.
Proving that their lead guards can consistently shoot the basketball against legitimate opponents will be step No. 1 in conference play. Where has Denver Jones (20.1 PPG at FIU last season) been? Auburn's starting shooting guard has been turned into essentially a role player.
The Tigers do flex one of the nation's deepest benches, but playing a more consistent lineup could prove to be more lethal.
Kentucky (9-2) could have the highest ceiling of any team in college basketball
No. 19 KP, No. 27 NET
- Rough loss to UNC Wilmington, defeated North Carolina, blew out Miami
- No. 20 in Adj. Tempo, scores at will outside (41.4% 3PT, No. 4 nationally)
- Is still waiting to add 7-foot-3 Zvonimir Ivisic to an already stacked lineup
- Extremely young, very inconsistent on defense end (No. 149 Eff. FG%)
- MVP: Reed Sheppard (12.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, 2.8 SPG, 58.5% FG, 57.8% 3PT)
Kentucky has the most options of any SEC team.
An opponent may try to focus on defending leading scorer Antonio Reeves, who is shooting 45.5% from deep this season. Congratulations! Rob Dillingham is now open and will proceed to cause chaos,
What if the opposition really wants to clamp down on Dillingham and fellow point guard DJ Wagner?
Wonderful! Forward Tre Mitchell will now choose between knocking down a wide-open three and lobbing the ball down low to Aaron Bradshaw - who is third in the SEC in field goal percentage!
If none of these options are able to produce consistent offense - which, in Kentucky's world this season, "consistent" might as well mean best in the country - consider Reed Sheppard, who comes off the bench and averages the numbers listed above. 57.8% from three should make any opponent want to puke.
Isn't this fun?
In all seriousness, Kentucky can be extremely good. Emphasis on can - the Wildcats have had some lapses early on and need to grow up quickly if they are going to survive SEC play. If that defense tightens up, there's no telling what John Calipari's squad can do.
Texas A&M (8-4) has disappointed a little bit
No. 23 KP, No. 19 NET
- Beat two teams ranked inside the top 27 on KenPom (Ohio State, Iowa State)
- Close-ish losses to Florida Atlantic, Virginia, Memphis, close loss to Houston
- Best offensive rebounding team in the nation
- Worst 3PT shooting team in the SEC (28.6%) but top five offense on KenPom
- MVP: Wade Taylor (No. 8 in KP POTY, 17.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.1 SPG, inefficient)
The 2021-22 season produced an NIT berth due to extremely weak non-conference scheduling and an eight-game losing streak in league play.
2022-23 gave A&M a weak No. 7 seed and a blowout loss to Penn State after the Aggies floundered in non-con play (five losses, including two against teams ranked outside the top 220 in KenPom). All of this despite going 15-3 in the SEC.
Much like a season ago, Texas A&M's offensive "efficiency" on KenPom is boosted because of their ability to grab second-chance points. They do not shoot well and struggle to keep opponents off of the three-point line.
2023-24 has seen a significant improvement in SOS, but A&M went 2-4 in the big time games.
Mississippi State’s (10-2) offense is still holding them back
No. 29 KP, No. 32 NET
- Offensive jumped from No. 176 to No. 72 in Adj. Eff., but still not good enough
- Lost their only games B2B vs GA Tech (No. 110) and Southern at home (No. 245)
- Defense is No. 10 in the nation, No. 8 in 3PT, doesn’t create havoc on defense but is solid
- Projected to start SEC play 3-6 and needs a resume booster
- MVP: Josh Hubbard but will be Tolu Smith (14.8 PPG, 38.8% 3PT)
State has seen improvement on the offensive end of the floor, but it just hasn't been enough. The Bulldogs should be 12-0 right now. Losing to Georgia Tech and Southern will prove to be costly when all is said done in March.
Wins against Washington State, Northwestern, North Texas and Rutgers were nice. But again, this team should be undefeated.
Yet here they are with a Quad Four loss, gearing up for conference play without Tolu Smith. They've got four games against South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky to kick it off.
Maybe Smith's return will turn things around midway through January.
Florida (9-3) is gearing up for a massive game vs Kentucky
No. 33 KP, No. 46 NET
- Defeated top 50 opponents in Pittsburgh and Michigan
- Lost to Virginia, Baylor, and Wake Forest in close games
- Plays with lots of tempo, is one of the tallest teams in the SEC, three players 6-foot-10 or taller
- Can’t shoot free throws (66.0% No. 314), turns it over (18.2%, No. 211)
- MVP: Zyon Pullin (14 PPG, 5.1 APG, 22 points in 2OT win over Michigan)
If the Gators can take out UK, it will give them a second Quad One win and some momentum heading to Ole Miss. This could be a pivotal season for Todd Golden, who is in the process of proving that his process works.
Here's a fun fact: Florida has finished above .500 in SEC play every season they've opened their conference schedule with a win since 2016. The Gators seem to lack that "it" factor, but they haven't been a slouch through 12 games either.
They have the pieces to compete. They just need a jumpstart.
They'll be fighting for this one against the Wildcats.
What are you doing, Arkansas (8-4)?
No. 66 KP, No. 95 NET
- Lost to UNC Greensboro, spiraled, lost to Memphis, UNC, Oklahoma and those games weren't close
- Is just simply ok on offense and defense (No. 64 and 65 in Adj. Eff.)
- Projected to start SEC play 1-7, has a win over Duke
- Relies heavily on free throws (23.8% of points come from the foul line, No. 22)
- MVP: Tramon Mark (Houston transfer, 16.9 PPG, 55% FG, 43% 3PT
It is unclear what Arkansas is doing.
It could just be as simple as "they caught an upset loss and have lost to better teams since," but it may be a bit deeper than that. Something else is going on here.
Like all Musselman teams in Fayetteville, this one lives and breathes on the charity stripe. It hasn't been enough against good competition.
Is it enough to say Arkansas will be just... okay in the conference this season? It feels like their talent is better than 9-9 or 10-8 in league play.
Is South Carolina (11-1) an NCAA Tournament team?
No. 67 KP, No. 43 NET
- Has taken care of their weak schedule (No. 304), lost to No. 26 Clemson close
- Extremely slow team (No. 333 Adj. Tempo, No. 317 Avg Poss. Length on offense 18.8s)
- They like the three ball distribute well, are not successful at the rim
- Has not defeated a team inside the top 165 on KenPom by more than 12 points
- MVP: Meechie Johnson (18.3 PPG, 36.9% 3PT)
Woof, USC's schedule has been weak. Thankfully, they've managed to scrape by so far.
Outside of their pacing, the Gamecocks don't really do much poorly. They struggle to get to the foul line and create opponent turnovers, but they look solid. Is this a tournament team?
This excitement may change once they tip things off against Mississippi State. Or not, who knows. They've got a strong lead guard in Meechie Johnson. Maybe he carries them past expectations.
The nation’s longest active win streak belongs to Ole Miss (12-0)
No. 80 KP, No. 56 NET
- Weak schedule, but wins over NC State, Memphis, UCF
- Slower, but shoots the three extremely well (40.7% is No. 8), awful 2P% (No. 240)
- Aggressive on defense (No. 4 in block %, No. 13 in steal %, bad Off Reb team No. 317)
- Chris Beard has never had a team finish outside the top 60 in Adj. Def. Eff. (OM: No. 112)
- MVP: Allen Flanigan (Auburn transfer, 16.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 38.9% 3PT)
Oh, hey, Ole Miss hasn't lost yet.
The Rebels have also benefitted from an extremely weak non-conference schedule. There were some scares early in the year, but ever since Chris Beard & Co. picked up a win over Memphis things have started to improve.
The winning streak will more than likely come to an end against Tennessee, but if it doesn't?
Maybe the Rebels need to be taken seriously this season.
Georgia (9-3) basketball exists to live in a shadow
No. 82 KP, No. 98 NET
- Best wins are against No. 58 Wake Forest (80-77) and No. 97 FSU (68-66)
- Losses to Oregon, Miami, Providence at neutral sites
- Nothing stands out about this team statistically
- Bad offense (No. 126), ok defense (No. 54)
- MVP: Jabri Abdur-Rahim (13.7 PPG, 46.7% 3PT)
There is nothing special about Georgia basketball. There has not been anything special about Georgia basketball since Anthony Edwards was chucking up shots in 2020.
Mike White was a bland hire. The team needs an offensive revival.
Considering the program's location - right beside Atlanta, one of college basketball's recruiting hotbeds - one would think that with an adequate amount of recruiting, the Bulldogs could be good.
They just aren't.
Dennis Gates has to improve Missouri’s (7-5) talent level
No. 92 KP, No. 106 NET
- Losses to Memphis, Kansas, Seton Hall, Illinois, and No. 255 Jackson St.
- Beat No. 44 Pittsburgh and No. 85 Minnesota
- Awful at grabbing second chance points and preventing them like last season
- Relies heavily on the outside shot (37.2% of points come from three, No. 35)
- MVP: Sean East (17.2 PPG, 3.8 APG, 55.4% FG, 55.9% 3PT)
That loss to Jackson State was rough.
The team struggles with things similar to last year's squad. Slowing things down on offense has not helped the Tigers' case against better competition. Getting thrashed by Memphis and Illinois needs to be a wake-up call for Dennis Gates.
He can succeed in the SEC if be brings in better talent. Sean East is a straight bucket (55.9% from deep!), but he needs help.
A lot of help.
LSU (7-5) might have made the wrong hire
No. 104 KP, No. 154 NET
- In nine of the ten seasons before Matt McMahon, LSU finished above .500
- Best win is over No. 58 Wake Forest (OT)
- Losses to Dayton, Syracuse, Kansas St., Texas, and No. 262 Nicholls St.
- 19.9% turnover percentage is worst in the SEC
- MVP: Jordan Wright (Vandy transfer, 15 PPG, 35.7% 3PT)
LSU's best player is a transfer from Vanderbilt.
*Pause for emphasis*
Vanderbilt (4-8) is leagues underneath everyone in this league
No. 212 KP, No. 278 NET
- Best performance came against No. 32 Memphis in 77-75 loss
- Opponents shoot 40% from deep (on top of a weak schedule, No. 222 in SOS)
- Top five nationally in bench minutes (46.8%)
- Can’t shoot, is slow, can’t distribute, can’t rebound, can’t defend
- MVP: Ezra Manjon (15.9 PPG, 3.8 APG)
Speaking of the Commodores, holy cow they are bad.
Please take a look at their scouting report on KenPom.
KenPom.com
Identify what statistical strength the Commodores may have. What stands out?
Is it their two-point defense, sandwiched between two blister-red stat boxes?
They fail to crack the top 65 nationally in any category. Not a single number strikes the viewer as impressive, either in its own right or combined with other stats to paint a picture of a competent output.
There is a picture still being painted, however. It's of head coach Jerry Stackhouse from his days in the NBA and can be purchased for $73 online. Thanks, Cliff Spohn.
Fun sidenote: You can purchase five tickets at midcourt (or 36 tickets to get into the building) to watch Vanderbilt vs Dartmouth this Saturday... or that painting of Stackhouse.
The choice is yours, dear reader.
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