Lighting the fuse: Five numbers Auburn needs to focus on to win more games in 2023
Ten years ago, Bill Connelly boiled down college football to five basic factors that strongly influenced the difference between winning and losing games.
Those five factors are explosiveness, efficiency, drive-finishing, field position, and turnover battle.
Per Connelly's 2013 breakdown:
If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.
Auburn was not very good at any of these things in 2022, leading to the Tigers' first losing season since 2012.
Let's take a look at the impact these five factors made on Auburn's 5-7 campaign and how the Tigers can best improve in each area.
Explosiveness
Often times it felt like it was boom or bust for Auburn's offense in 2022, considering the Tigers' poor offensive line play forced them into long-yardage situations far more often than they should have been.
According to SEC Stat Cat, this is how Auburn's plays shook out based on yards gained:
Negative yards: 9.59% (11th in the SEC)
0-3 yards: 18.48% (11th in the SEC)
4-7 yards: 17.20% (13th in the SEC)
7-10 yards: 8.10% (13th in the SEC)
10-15 yards: 8.24% (13th in the SEC)
15+ yards: 13.72 (3rd in the SEC)
It was quite literally all or nothing.
Auburn ranked 57th or better in plays of 20+, 30+, 40+ and 50+ yards but 74th in plays of 10+.
It's almost funny how the Tigers managed to create a fair amount of chunk plays from a dead offense while having a 62-yard screen pass become their longest play of the season - the shortest of Auburn's longest play from every season since 2013.
The takeaway here? Establish a line of scrimmage and even more explosive plays could be on the horizon. Given the stature of Auburn's receiver room and a new quarterback who loves giving players a chance downfield, additional long plays may be in store for the Tigers.
Efficiency
Anything but efficient. That's what Auburn was in 2022.
There was no consistency from drive to drive for Auburn. It was all out of sorts, and it led to the majority of possessions feeling like they were full of desperation. As if if something didn't happen now, it was all going to snowball out of control shortly.
Most of the time it did thanks to turnovers and lack of cohesion. The Tigers finished ninth in the conference in success rate and last in the league in scramble percentage (8.73%). Ashford bailed from the pocket far too often either in search of an explosive play or because the line simply couldn't hold up.
Even with the Tigers hitting some bombs every now and then, the overall product was horrendous. 92nd nationally is where Auburn fell in points per play margin, averaging -0.08 points every time the ball was snapped compared to the opposition.
Not having an established line of scrimmage has prevented Auburn from producing efficient offense for years now.
With the way Freeze has recruited o-line for this upcoming season there's an expectation that Jake Thornton will be able to dramatically change some of the Tigers' numbers.
Drive-finishing
The Tigers' issue wasn't finishing drives. Auburn was top 40 in the nation in redzone scoring percentage. What killed them was not being able to start drives.
Auburn was last in the SEC in first downs per drive (1.12), early down conversion rate (62.3%) and plays per drive (4.32).
Auburn was 107th nationally in stuff rate (percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage) in 2022, per Football Outsiders. Not getting things off the ground on early downs lead to struggles on passing downs.
Again, this goes back to scheme and offensive line play. Auburn switched to a run-heavy scheme in 2022 because they had no one to throw the ball accurately on roster. The line couldn't get a consistent push until late in the season and thus Ashford and the offense found themselves getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage way too often.
Someone who watched Auburn's o-line woes a season ago could land a pretty good guess as to how often Robby Ashford and TJ Finley were sacked when they dropped back in passing situations considering how predictable the offense felt at times. The Tigers' 12.7% sack rate on passing downs was good for 121st in the nation.
The only Power Five teams underneath Auburn were Syracuse, Washington State, Maryland, and Boston College.
This is arguably the most important factor outside of turnover margin for the Tigers in 2023, and it comes with a simple solution: Be better on first down.
Field position
The Tigers actually had a top-five average starting field position in the SEC (31.87) largely due in part to punter Oscar Chapman, who helped the Tigers' defense out by putting them in in good spots - when Auburn made stops, their offense had room to work with. They just consistently failed to put anything together on first and second down.
Auburn was 21st nationally in opponent yards per punt return at 4.2 yards. Chapman himself had the lowest return rate in the SEC, per Nathan King of 247Sports.
I want to emphasize that while Auburn didn't have all of the margin in the world, their coaching really held them back from taking advantage of their field position. There was a lack of creativity and a lack of execution when new things were tried.
I don't think Auburn's talent roster is as dire as some may make it out to be considering the Tigers are still alongside the top teams in the country in the blue chip ratio. Lack of sound coaching and poor play calling was what sunk Auburn when they had opportunities with shorter fields.
Take a look at these numbers from BCF Toys:
Offensive points per drive: 1.77 (93rd nationally)
Points per drive from long starting field position: 0.77 (110th nationally)
Points per drive from middle starting field position: 1.81 (81st nationally)
Points per drive from short starting field position: 2.61 (108th nationally)
These numbers played a major part in Auburn's net points per drive being a pitiful -0.58 points.
One would think that Hugh Freeze and Philip Montgomery, known for their strong offensive minds, would be able to put together a much better product to pair with the Tigers' solid special teams.
Sometimes Auburn would shoot themselves in the foot even when they got the ball moving...
Turnover battle
That leads us to the turnover battle, possibly one of the most painful statistics to come out of Auburn football this century.
The Tigers were absolutely thrashed in turnover margin last season, finishing -9 in the department and 122nd nationally. Only gaining 13 turnovers was one thing. Averaging 1.8 of your own per game was another.
Auburn's roster is fine. It's not talent that's going to kill Auburn in the turnover department this year. At the end of the day it will be coaching and execution.
Ron Roberts was brought in to primarily do two things: help Auburn stop the run and create turnovers. If he can do that and Philip Montgomery can pilot a relatively clean ship, the Tigers have a chance to really turn things around.
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