NCAA Tournament projections: Boise State among first four out after Colorado State loss

Broncos need strong showing at Mountain West Tournament to go dancing

Air Force guard Ethan Taylor controls the ball under pressure from Boise State guard Alvaro Cardenas. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The Boise State men’s basketball team’s NCAA Tournament chances took a major hit Friday night with an 83-73 Mountain West Conference home loss to Colorado State. 

The Broncos would’ve clinched the No. 2 seed for the MWC Tournament with a victory, but Nique Clifford’s 36 points were too much for Boise State to overcome.

“That’s honestly one of the best performances I have to imagine in CSU history considering the circumstances,” Rams head coach Niko Medved said in his postgame radio interview. “Hostile environment, sellout on the road against a … borderline NCAA Tournament team. To come in here and do what he did, high, high-level stuff.”

The surging Rams (22-9, 16-4) wrapped up second place with their seventh straight win.

Boise State (22-9, 14-6) is locked into a No. 4 vs. No. 5 MWC Tournament quarterfinal matchup with San Diego State (20-8, 13-6). The winner will likely play MWC regular-season champion New Mexico (25-6, 17-3) in the semis. 

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released an updated NCAA Tournament projection Saturday morning, and Lunardi dropped Boise State from the last four in to the third team out. Lunardi listed Colorado State as the fifth team out. 

Lunardi’s latest projection had three MWC teams in the field of 68: No. 9 seed New Mexico, No. 10 seed Utah State (24-6, 14-5) and No. 11 seed San Diego State. The Aztecs were among the last four teams included. 

Utah State hosts last-place Air Force (4-26, 1-18) at 2 p.m. Mountain time Saturday while San Diego State has an 8:30 p.m. home matchup with Nevada (16-14, 8-11). Boise State, Colorado State and New Mexico are all off until the MWC Tournament. 

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm also released an updated NCAA Tournament projection Saturday morning with Boise State as the first team out. New Mexico (No. 9 seed), Utah State (No. 9 seed) and San Diego State (No. 11 seed, last four in) all cracked Palm’s field. 

The Broncos, who are trying to reach their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament, are down to No. 49 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 51 in KenPom. Boise State holds a 2-5 record in Quad 1 NET games and is 2-6 against the MWC’s NCAA Tournament contenders, including an 0-4 mark against Colorado State and San Diego State. 

“Obviously, nobody wants to go out like that,” Broncos point guard Alvaro Cardenas said of the senior night loss to Colorado State. “But we can’t dwell on it too much. We really appreciate the people in Boise. They really, really showed out today. The environment was great. Sad we couldn’t get a win in our last (home) game, but we’re not done yet. And I think the whole locker room believes that.”

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• ‘He’s a special player;’ What Leon Rice said after Nique Clifford torches Boise State for career-high 36 points

• The Nique Clifford Show: 3 takeaways from Colorado State’s comeback win over Boise State

• 2025 NFL mock drafts: Ashton Jeanty rated as No. 3 overall prospect by NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah

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