NCAA Tournament projections: Did Boise State’s bubble burst?

Broncos stumbled against Colorado State in Mountain West Tournament title game

Boise State Broncos forward O'Mar Stanley. | Brian Losness-Imagn Images

The Boise State men’s basketball team had a chance to secure its spot in the NCAA Tournament Saturday afternoon against Colorado State.

But the red-hot Rams (25-9) dismantled the Broncos (24-10) in the Mountain West Tournament final en route to a 69-56 victory, clinching the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

The disappointing loss at Thomas & Mack Center could put the Broncos on the wrong side of the bubble. Boise State has reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three seasons. 

The Broncos will learn their fate during the NCAA Tournament selection show. The CBS broadcast is scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. Mountain time Sunday. 

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released an updated NCAA Tournament projection Sunday morning that included four MWC teams: Colorado State, New Mexico (26-7), San Diego State (21-9) and Utah State (26-7). Boise State was Lunardi’s first team left out of the field of 68. 

New Mexico, the MWC regular-season champion, received a nine seed in Lunardi’s latest projection. Lunardi listed Utah State as a 10 seed, San Diego State as an 11 seed and Colorado State as a 12 seed. 

The Aztecs were among Lunardi’s last four teams in. Lunardi had San Diego State facing Vanderbilt in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, with Xavier and Indiana meeting in the other First Four game. 

Boise State, North Carolina, Texas and Ohio State were Lunardi’s first four out. 

Following a 5-4 start to MWC play, Boise State won nine of its next 10 games before falling to Colorado State in its regular-season finale. The Broncos went 2-1 at the MWC Tournament with victories over San Diego State and New Mexico and a loss to Colorado State. 

Boise State’s resume is hurt by a 0-3 record against Colorado State and a 1-2 mark against San Diego State. The Broncos also suffered a pair of bad non-conference losses to Washington State (No. 112 in NCAA NET Ranking) and Boston College (No. 202). 

The Broncos have the third-best NET Ranking among MWC teams at No. 44, trailing only No. 37 Utah State and No. 42 New Mexico. Boise State holds a 3-6 record in Quad 1 games and is 5-2 in Quad 2.

Utah State head coach Jerrod Calhoun believes the MWC will be well-represented in the NCAA Tournament. 

“I’m rooting for this entire conference … to get five (bids),” Calhoun said earlier this week. “We’ll see what kind of representation we have on Selection Sunday. I think we all know last year we had a record year, and we could be right there again.”

A record six MWC teams made the NCAA Tournament last season: Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State.

MORE BOISE STATE NEWS & ANALYSIS

• What Leon Rice said after Boise State’s loss to Colorado State in Mountain West Tournament title game

• Unstoppable Rams: 3 takeaways from Colorado State’s blowout win over Boise State in MWC Tournament title game

• Mountain West Tournament recap: Colorado State leaves no doubt, clinches NCAA Tournament bid

• NCAA Tournament projections: Will Boise State vs. Colorado State loser be left out?

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