NCAA Tournament projections: Will Boise State vs. Colorado State loser be left out?

One thing is certain entering Saturday’s Mountain West Tournament championship game matchup between second-seeded Colorado State and No. 5 Boise State.

The winner will receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, and the loser will tune into the Selection Sunday television broadcast with great anxiety.

Tipoff between the Broncos (24-9) and Rams (24-9) is scheduled for 4 p.m. Mountain time at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Colorado State swept the regular-season series between the teams, including an 83-73 win in Boise last week.

The MWC could receive anywhere between three and five bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Regular-season champion New Mexico (26-7) is a lock to earn a bid. Utah State (26-7) is very likely to make the field of 68 while Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State (21-9) are all firmly on the bubble.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his NCAA Tournament projection Saturday morning with a surprise twist. For the first time all season, Lunardi put five MWC teams in his bracket.

Lunardi projected Colorado State as the automatic qualifier and awarded the red-hot Rams an 11 seed. Colorado State enters the MWC title game on a nine-game winning streak.

Lunardi also had New Mexico (nine seed), Utah State (10 seed), San Diego State (11 seed) and Boise State (12 seed) in the field. Lunardi listed San Diego State as the third-to-last team in with Boise State getting the final at-large bid.

Vanderbilt and Xavier were also among the last four in while Indiana, North Carolina, Texas and Dayton were the first four out.

The last four at-large selections are sent to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio. Boise State was in the First Four last year and fell to Colorado, 60-53.

Lunardi is not sure if the loser of Saturday’s MWC Tournament title game will crack the field of 68.

“What remains to be seen is if Saturday night’s MWC loser remains in the field as an at-large (quite possibly not, pending other bid stealers),” Lunardi wrote. “In other words, the wait for bubble teams such as North Carolina, Texas and more just got a whole lot harder.”

Utah State head coach Jerrod Calhoun believes Colorado State should be in the tournament no matter what. The Rams own two recent victories over the Aggies, including an 83-72 win in Friday’s semifinals.

“I don’t think they should have to win (to get in),” Calhoun said. “I think we should get four or five bids again. I don’t think anybody in the NCAA Tournament will want to face them or Boise.

“I’m rooting for this entire conference … to get five (bids). We’ll see what kind of representation we have on Selection Sunday. I think we all know last year we had a record year, and we could be right there again.”

A record six MWC teams received NCAA Tournament bids a season ago: Boise State, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State and Utah State.

Boise State has reached the NCAA Tournament in each of the past three seasons.

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