4 reasons to believe Boise State football can exceed expectations this season in reborn Pac-12

Earlier this month, ESPN released its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2026 season.

Boise State was the top-ranked Group of Six team in the metric at No. 50 with a projected win total of 7.8. According to FPI, the Broncos have a 36.4 percent chance to win the reborn Pac-12 in 2026 and an 11 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff.

The Broncos, who officially left the Mountain West for the Pac-12 on July 1, captured three straight MWC titles on their way out the door. Boise State reached the CFP in 2024 for the first time in program history.

Here are four reasons to believe the Broncos can exceed their projected FPI win total, secure a fourth straight conference title and make the CFP for the second time in three seasons.

1. Two-headed monster at running back

Boise State has one of the best running back duos in the country in junior Dylan Riley and sophomore Sire Gaines.

Riley (195 carries, 1,125 yards, 12 total touchdowns) and Gaines (161 carries, 811 yards, nine total touchdowns) split carries last season and could both eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in 2026.

With Riley and Gaines shouldering the load, the Broncos could lead the new Pac-12 in several offensive categories.

2. Defensive playmakers

Boise State will have several new faces on defense this season, but the Broncos do return proven playmakers at all three levels.

Edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan, a two-time first-team all-MWC selection, enters his senior season with 120 career tackles (31 for loss), 16 sacks, four fumble recoveries and three forced fumbles. Junior linebacker Boen Phelps notched 66 total tackles last season while senior defensive back Jaden Mickey had 38 total tackles and five pass breakups in 2025.

Mickey, Phelps and Virgin-Morgan are all potential Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

3. Questions surrounding other Group of Six contenders

The American Conference had a historic 2025 season with Navy, North Texas and Tulane all winning 11 or more games while Memphis and South Florida entered November with CFP aspirations. Tulane and Sun Belt champion James Madison both represented the Group of Six in the CFP.

Of the six aforementioned teams, only Navy held onto its head coach heading into 2026.

With Spencer Danielson entering his third full season at the helm, Boise State has a continuity advantage over several Group of Six contenders.

4. Senior quarterback who has seen it all

While Maddux Madsen has received plenty of criticism over his Boise State career, the quarterback’s overall body of work remains underrated.

Madsen boasts a career record of 20-6 as a starter, including two MWC championship game victories over UNLV. His career statistics are also solid: 507 of 834 passing (61 percent) for 6,586 yards with 61 total touchdowns—50 throwing, 11 rushing—and 18 interceptions.

When facing Power Four opponents, Madsen is 0-4 as a starter with two touchdowns and nine interceptions.

The Broncos open the 2026 season against Oregon at Autzen Stadium, a venue Madsen experienced two years ago. If Madsen can hold his own against a ferocious Oregon defensive front, Boise State should be back in the CFP hunt this fall.

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