Boise State leads Pac-12, Group of Six in ESPN’s FPI power rankings

Boise State football has returned to national prominence under head coach Spencer Danielson with three straight Mountain West championships and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2024.

The Broncos, who officially left the MWC for the rebuilt Pac-12 on July 1, are expected to challenge for their second CFP berth in three seasons.

ESPN recently released its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2026 season, and Boise State leads the way among Group of Six teams at No. 50. Tulane, a 2025 CFP participant and the reigning champion of the American Conference, sits just behind the Broncos at No. 56. MWC preseason favorite UNLV is at No. 58.

Boise State received a 4.0 overall rating in FPI with a projected win total of 7.8 games. The Broncos have 11 finalized matchups for 2026 with a to-be-determined flex opponent to close the regular season.

FPI gives Boise State a 36.4 percent chance to win the Pac-12 and an 11 percent chance to reach the CFP.

As of Monday morning, the Broncos are a +170 favorite to capture the Pac-12 title in 2026. San Diego State is next at +370, followed by Texas State (+550), Fresno State (+650), Washington State (+800), Utah State (+1100), Oregon State (+3000) and Colorado State (+4000).

The Broncos opened as a +154 favorite to claim their fourth straight conference championship. Early money has poured in on Fresno State, which opened at +800.

Boise State is tied with Tennessee for the 22nd-best odds to make the CFP at +450. Among Group of Six teams, Army, Memphis and UTSA are next at +1000.

The Broncos will host Memphis on Saturday, Sept. 12 in their home opener at newly renovated Albertsons Stadium.

Here is where each Pac-12 team stands in the FPI entering the 2026 season:

Boise State

FPI: 50

Projected wins: 7.8

Chance to win Pac-12: 36.4 percent

Chance to make CFP: 11 percent

San Diego State

FPI: 59

Projected wins: 7.5

Chance to win Pac-12: 25.1 percent

Chance to make CFP: 7.4 percent

Fresno State

FPI: 77

Projected wins: 6.2

Chance to win Pac-12: 11.4 percent

Chance to make CFP: 2.8 percent

Washington State

FPI: 83

Projected wins: 5.1

Chance to win Pac-12: 8.3 percent

Chance to make CFP: 1.4 percent

Texas State

FPI: 84

Projected wins: 5.6

Chance to win Pac-12: 8.6 percent

Chance to make CFP: 1.9 percent

Utah State

FPI: 92

Projected wins: 4.7

Chance to win Pac-12: 4.7 percent

Chance to make CFP: 0.7 percent

Oregon State

FPI: 98

Projected wins: 4.4

Chance to win Pac-12: 4.2 percent

Chance to make CFP: 0.5 percent

Colorado State

FPI: 118

Projected wins: 3.6

Chance to win Pac-12: 1.3 percent

Chance to make CFP: 0.1 percent

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google