Boise State's College Football Playoff outlook gets major vote of confidence from national experts

Could the Broncos be headed for another playoff run? The latest projections suggest they have a real shot

Boise State is the Group of Six's top College Football Playoff contender. | Photo courtesy of Boise State Athletics

Idle this week, No. 23 Boise State is sitting pretty at the halfway point of the 2026 college football season. 

The Broncos (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12) have ripped off five straight wins following a seven-point Week 1 road loss to Oregon and are the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. 

In the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Boise State remains a +140 favorite to make the CFP for the second time since 2024. The Broncos were also +140 last week before securing a 38-31 road victory over rival Fresno State (4-2, 1-1). 

Boise State has the 10th-best odds nationally to make the CFP, coming in behind Notre Dame (-4000), Georgia (-3000), Miami (-1800), Indiana (-800), Ohio State (-750), Alabama (-700), Texas (-450), Utah (+105) and Texas Tech (+120). 

Other Group of Six teams to watch include Sun Belt leader James Madison (+400 to make the CFP), Mountain West favorite New Mexico (+425) and American co-leaders UTSA (+1100) and Memphis (+1600). Boise State defeated the Tigers at home in Week 2, 38-20. 

North Dakota State dropped from +425 to +1200 after suffering a 13-7 loss to UNLV last week. The Bison also have to play at New Mexico next week. 

Pac-12 co-leader Oregon State is +3000 to make the CFP. The Broncos will host the Beavers (4-2, 2-0) on Nov. 14. 

The latest round of bowl projections all have Boise State reaching the CFP with Oregon State representing the Pac-12 in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Here is a collection of bowl projections from national writers for Pac-12 teams entering Week 7 of the 2026 college football season. 

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Texas

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State

Poinsettia Bowl: Washington vs. Oregon State

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Indiana

Frisco Bowl: USF vs. San Diego State

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV vs. Texas State

Poinsettia Bowl: Arizona State vs. Oregon State

Brett McMurphy, On3

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Notre Dame

Hawaii Bowl: Wyoming vs. Fresno State

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Arizona State

Bryan Fischer, Sports Illustrated

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Alabama

First Responder Bowl: Colorado State vs. Louisiana

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: Tulsa vs. Texas State

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Arizona State

Brad Crawford, CBS Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Notre Dame

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Arizona State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Air Force

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Texas

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV vs. Fresno State

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Washington

Oliver Hodgkinson, PFSN College

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Alabama

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Arizona State

Puerto Rico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Air Force

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

• If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.