Boise State's College Football Playoff odds surge after Washington State win, James Madison upset

National projections increasingly favor the Broncos to claim the Group of Six's automatic playoff berth

Boise State edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan high-fives a fan after last week's win over Washington State. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Boise State’s playoff odds received a major boost during Week 8 of the college football season.

DraftKings Sportsbook had the Broncos at +148 to reach the College Football Playoff entering last week, just ahead of James Madison at +190. The Dukes suffered an overtime road loss at Appalachian State while Boise State earned a 31-10 road victory over Washington State.

As of Wednesday morning, No. 20 Boise State (6-1, 3-0 Pac-12) is now +105 to make its second CFP appearance in three seasons. The Broncos will host Texas State (4-3, 2-1) at 8 p.m. Mountain time on Saturday. 

Boise State has the 12th-best odds nationally to reach the CFP. Mountain  West favorite New Mexico is next among Group of Six teams at +250, followed by UTSA (+600) and Oregon State (+750). James Madison is all the way down to +1100 following the Appalachian State loss. 

The highest-ranked Group of Six team in the final CFP rankings earns an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff.

Boise State and Oregon State will face off at Albertsons Stadium on Nov. 14. The Beavers (5-2, 3-0) are at Fresno State (4-3, 1-2) this weekend. 

The Broncos remain a near-consensus choice to represent the Group of Six in the CFP. 

Here is a collection of postseason projections from national writers for Pac-12 teams entering Week 9 of the 2026 college football season. 

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Georgia

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State vs. North Dakota State

Holiday Bowl: Louisville vs. Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Mark Schlabach, ESPN

College Football Playoff: Boise State at UCLA

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. North Dakota State

Poinsettia Bowl: Texas State vs. Arizona State

Sun Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon State

Brett McMurphy, On3

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Utah

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV vs. Texas State

Holiday Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Bryan Fischer, Sports Illustrated

College Football Playoff: Boise State at LSU

Frisco Football Classic: FAU vs. Texas State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. UNLV

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State vs. Duke

Brad Crawford, CBS Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at UCLA

Frisco Football Classic: Tulane vs. San Diego State

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State vs. Fresno State

New Mexico Bowl: Texas State vs. UNLV

Poinsettia Bowl: Baylor vs. Oregon State

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports

College Football Playoff: Boise State at Indiana

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV vs. Texas State

Holiday Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Oregon State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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