Game-by-game predictions for Boise State football in 2026

Boise State is widely viewed as the team to beat in Year 1 of the new Pac-12 and the top Group of Six program in the country.

As of Thursday, Boise State is +134 to win the reborn Pac-12 in 2026, coming in well above top challengers San Diego State (+425), Texas State (+475) and Fresno State (+650). The Broncos are +450 to make the College Football Playoff, the lowest odds among Group of Six teams.

Outside of their Week 1 road matchup against No. 2 Oregon, the Broncos could be favored in every game this season. The Ducks are favored by 24.5 points in Saturday’s 1:30 p.m. Mountain time showdown at Autzen Stadium.

Boise State closed its run in the Mountain West with three straight championships.

With the 2026 season about to begin, here are game-by-game predictions for Boise State in Year 1 of the new Pac-12.

Saturday, Sept. 5 - at Oregon

Prediction: 41-13 loss

Analysis: The Broncos hang around for a half, but Oregon pulls away in the third quarter for a big victory.

Saturday, Sept. 12 - vs. Memphis

Prediction: 27-23 win

Analysis: Boise State bounces back from a Week 1 loss with a hard-fought home victory over a tough Memphis team.

Saturday, Sept. 19 - vs. South Dakota

Prediction: 48-13 win

Analysis: FCS South Dakota is no match for the Broncos on The Blue.

Saturday, Sept. 26 - at Western Michigan

Prediction: 24-23 win

Analysis: Maddux Madsen leads a fourth-quarter comeback to defeat eventual MAC repeat champion Western Michigan on the road.

Saturday, Oct. 3 - vs. Utah State

Prediction: 37-17 win

Analysis: Boise State opens Pac-12 play with an easy home win.

Saturday, Oct. 10 - at Fresno State

Prediction: 24-20 loss

Analysis: The Bulldogs snag their fourth straight victory in the Milk Can rivalry game before a sellout crowd at Valley Children’s Stadium.

Saturday, Oct. 24 - at Washington State

Prediction: 31-17 win

Analysis: After the bye week, Boise State gets back on track with a victory over Kirby Moore’s team.

Saturday, Oct. 31 - vs. Texas State

Prediction: 55-34 win

Analysis: The Bobcats are unable to stop Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley in a high-scoring game at Albertsons Stadium.

Saturday, Nov. 7 - at Colorado State

Prediction: 33-13 win

Analysis: The Broncos take care of business against an undermanned Colorado State team.

Saturday, Nov 14 - vs. Oregon State

Prediction: 37-21 win

Analysis: Boise State controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and pulls away in the fourth quarter.

Saturday, Nov. 21 - vs. San Diego State

Prediction: 27-24 win

Analysis: In an instant classic, Boise State takes down San Diego State on a last-second field goal.

Saturday, Nov. 28 - at TBD Pac-12 flex opponent

Prediction: Win

Analysis: This one is impossible to predict due to the Pac-12’s flex scheduling, but pencil in the Broncos for a sixth straight victory.

Friday, Dec. 4 - Pac-12 championship game

Prediction: 30-23 win over Fresno State

Analysis: Boise State avenges its previous defeat to Fresno State and claims a fourth straight conference title. Boasting an 11-2 overall record, the Broncos will have an excellent chance to be the Group of Six representative in the College Football Playoff.

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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