Boise State's College Football Playoff hopes face growing threat from James Madison

Five Group of Six teams are competing for one playoff spot

Boise State's Matt Wagner. | Photo courtesy of Boise State Athletics

No. 21 Boise State enters the second half of the regular season as the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff, but the Broncos could have a James Madison problem on selection day. 

In the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12) are down to a +148 favorite to make the CFP. Boise State was +140 while idle last week. 

The highest-ranked Group of Six team in the final CFP rankings earns an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff. 

Sun Belt leader James Madison (7-0, 4-0) moved from +400 to +190 in the CFP odds after routing Georgia State on Saturday, 49-22. The Dukes have faced the nation’s No. 130 overall schedule according to ESPN’s FPI while Boise State’s strength of schedule ranks No. 59. 

Mountain West favorite New Mexico (5-1, 2-0) remains in contention for a CFP bid at +400. The Lobos have also played a soft schedule (No. 108) but do have upcoming matchups with North Dakota State (6-1, 3-1), UNLV (4-3, 2-1) and Air Force (5-1, 3-1). 

UTSA (6-1, 3-0) is the American’s top CFP contender at +850. The Roadrunners boast wins over Pac-12 foes Colorado State (2-4, 0-2) and Texas State (3-3, 1-1). 

The Group of Six’s biggest riser in the CFP odds has been Oregon State (5-2, 3-0), which is down to +1200 to make the playoff. The Beavers were +6500 two weeks ago and +3000 ahead of last Saturday’s 48-30 home victory over Washington State (1-6, 0-3). 

Boise State will host Oregon State on Nov. 14 in a matchup that will likely determine the location of the Pac-12 championship game. 

The Broncos have the 13th-best odds nationally to make the CFP, coming in behind Miami (-3500), Georgia (-1100), Indiana (-700), Ohio State (-600), Notre Dame (-525), Alabama (-190), BYU (-140), Ole Miss (-125), Texas Tech (-110), Utah (+115), UCLA (+120) and Texas (+126). 

Unranked Oregon (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten), which earned a 34-27 Week 1 home victory over Boise State, is down to +420 in the CFP odds.

Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said the CFP rankings are not a regular topic of conversation in the locker room.  

“My focus for our players is for them to be the very best every single day,” Danielson said during Monday’s press conference. “Because the end results—the championships, the playoff—all that stuff is a moot point if you don’t handle your process.”

The Broncos will be back in action on Saturday with a 4 p.m. Mountain time road game against Washington State. 

As of Wednesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook has Boise State as a 13.5-point favorite over the Cougars. 

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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