Way-too-early win total predictions for every Pac-12 football team in 2026

Following a two-year hiatus, Pac-12 football will be back on the menu this fall.

The reborn Pac-12 officially launches on July 1 with new members Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State of the Mountain West and Texas State of the Sun Belt joining holdovers Oregon State and Washington State. The historic conference lost 10 of its 12 members to the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 in 2024.

With all eight programs in the middle of spring practice, Boise State Broncos on SI is projecting the season win totals for each team in 2026.

NOTE: The Pac-12’s seven-game round-robin slate will wrap up on Saturday, Nov. 21. The final week of the regular season is an adjustable “flex” week. Since each matchup is TBD, Boise State Broncos on SI awarded the top four teams an extra win and the bottom four an extra loss.

1. Boise State

2025 record: 9-5, 6-2 (MWC)

Projected 2026 record: 10-2, 6-1

Coming off three straight MWC titles, Boise State is the clear favorite entering Year 1 of the new-look Pac-12. The Broncos must survive a tough non-conference slate featuring road trips to Oregon and reigning MAC champion Western Michigan along with a home matchup against Memphis.

2. San Diego State

2025 record: 9-4, 6-2 (MWC)

Projected 2026 record: 10-2, 6-1

The Aztecs took a big step forward last fall in Sean Lewis’ second season at the helm. Star tailback Lucky Sutton and quarterback Jayden Denegal both return for an offense that lagged far behind the Aztecs’ elite defense in 2025.

3. Fresno State

2025 record: 9-4, 5-3 (MWC)

Projected 2026 record: 8-4, 4-3

The Bulldogs return 14 starters from last year’s team that hammered Boise State on The Blue and scored an early-season road win over Oregon State. Fresno State opens Pac-12 play with a brutal three-game stretch featuring a home matchup against Boise State sandwiched between road trips to Washington State and San Diego State.

4. Texas State

2025 record: 7-6, 3-5 (Sun Belt)

Projected 2026 record: 7-5, 3-4

The Bobcats could have the best offense in the new Pac-12 with returning quarterback Brad Jackson and senior receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr., who both went over the 1,000 receiving yards mark last year. Texas State, which must improve defensively, has a back-loaded schedule with long road trips to Boise State and Oregon State followed by two home matchups with Fresno State and Washington State.

5. Washington State

2025 record: 7-6, 1-1 (Pac-12)

Projected 2026 record: 5-7, 4-3

The Cougars are the biggest wildcard in the Pac-12 with a retooled roster under first-year head coach Kirby Moore. Washington State plays the toughest non-conference schedule of the eight teams with road matchups against Washington and Kansas State and a home game against Arizona, but the Cougars could challenge for a Pac-12 title game berth if everything goes to plan.

6. Oregon State

2025 record: 2-10, 1-1 (Pac-12)

Projected 2026 record: 5-7, 3-4

According to the metrics, Oregon State was the unluckiest team in college football last year by ranking 117th or worse nationally in turnover margin, performance in close games and injury luck. New head coach JaMarcus Shephard inherits a program that returns a handful of starters on both sides of the ball.

7. Utah State

2025 record: 6-7, 4-4 (MWC)

Projected 2026 record: 3-9, 1-6

The Aggies are another hard team to gauge after experiencing some roster turnover, but second-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall has praised his team during spring practice. Quarterback is a huge question mark following the graduation of Bryson Barnes, who put up monster stats last season.

8. Colorado State

2025 record: 2-10, 1-7 (MWC)

Projected 2026 record: 3-9, 1-6

First-year head coach Jim Mora has plenty of building to do as Colorado State ranks last in the Pac-12 with four returning starters. The Rams have a tough conference schedule with four road games and home matchups against Boise State, San Diego State and Oregon State, which could be their best chance at a Pac-12 win.