What No. 20 Boise State vs. Texas State expert picks tell us to expect in Pac-12 showdown

No. 20 Boise State will go for its seventh straight victory this weekend against visiting Texas State.

Kickoff between the Broncos (6-1, 3-0 Pac-12) and Bobcats (4-3, 2-1) is slated for 8 p.m. Mountain time at Albertsons Stadium. The Pac-12 game will air live nationally on The CW.

Boise State has ripped off six consecutive wins since a Week 1 loss at then-No. 2 Oregon and is the favorite to represent the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos also reached the CFP in 2024.

Texas State sits alone in third place in the Pac-12 standings behind Boise State and Oregon State (5-2, 3-0). After taking on the Broncos, Texas State will travel to Corvallis next weekend.

Saturday’s matchup will feature two of the top running backs in college football. Boise State’s Dylan Riley is the nation’s second-leading rusher with 963 yards and nine total touchdowns while Texas State senior Torrance Burgess Jr. ranks No. 5 in the country with 889 rushing yards and five TDs.

In the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, the Broncos are favored by 10.5 points over the Bobcats. Boise State is -425 on the moneyline to Texas State’s +330.

The over/under is set at 63.5 points.

Can Boise State keep the positive momentum rolling on The Blue?

Here is a look at some predictions and picks from national media outlets heading into Saturday’s game.

Leger Douzable, CBS Sports: Boise State -10.5

Douzable’s rationale: “Boise State has just run through everybody in the Pac-12. And it’s crazy because a lot of the games, it’s close at half, and then they just open up in the second half.”

Analysis: Douzable expects Riley to have a monster second half against Texas State. Riley was held in check through three quarters against Washington State but had fourth-quarter touchdown runs of 33 and 72 yards in last week’s 31-10 victory.

Danny Kanell, CBS Sports: Boise State -10.5

Kanell’s rationale: “I’ve tried to fade them a couple times, hasn’t worked out great. So I’m just going to trust them to continue doing what they’ve been doing.”

Analysis: Kanell noted that Maddux Madsen has quietly had a tremendous year for the Broncos with 14 passing touchdowns and zero turnovers. He believes Boise State is on a mission to snag a CFP berth and will cover against Texas State.

Cam Mellor, Pro Football Network: Boise State to win

Mellor’s rationale: “I think the Broncos avoid that slip-up against a team that they’re not very familiar with.”

Analysis: Mellor believes the home-field advantage at Albertsons Stadium is worth up to three points in the betting line. He also noted that Texas State’s secondary has really struggled, which could lead to a big night for Madsen and the passing game.

○ Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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