3rd Down Improvement Needed In Order For BC To Take Next Step

Looking at the numbers, it's a problem

Boston College has been stuck at 7 wins for all but one of Steve Addazio's years on the Heights. All the talk this summer around this program has involved wondering if Addazio has the capability to get past that, or if his coaching style in the ACC has a seven-win plateau. There are a few aspects to consider when looking at why BC hasn't been able to take the next step, but in his media day press conference, Steve Addazio talked about one of the biggest problems in terms of team execution, and it's an aspect I agree is a problem. Third downs on offense.

How bad was 3rd down conversions on offense? In the ACC BC ranked 13th out of 14 teams, and the team ranked last was FSU who was in it's on stratosphere in terms of 3rd down inefficiency. BC finished 115th in the country, converting 33% of their third downs, no team below them in the rankings won more than seven games last year. Their 3rd down percentage in games against conference opponents was roughly the same as against non-conference opponents at 31%.

Why did BC struggle so much at third-down conversions? A major factor could be due to the injury to AJ Dillon. When he was healthy and starting in 2017 (Louisville game and after) BC had a 52.5% success rate, which would put them near the top of the country. That number is a bit deceiving though because BC played more elite defenses before Louisville. But that entire season, BC was still ranked over 30 spots higher than in 2018, so clearly a healthy AJ Dillon plays an important role. He's very hard to tackle, and on 3rd and short yardage, it's almost impossible to tackle him before he gets the necessary yardage. 

Another factor that has to play into this low success rate is the play calling. Even this year BC had more success on 3rd down when it the situation is 3rd and Manageable and they can either hand the ball to Dillon or another back, or make a nice short pass. I couldn't find the stats on it, but I imagine that BC really struggled on 3rd down when it was 3rd and 6 yards or longer. It seemed like so many drives went run, run, force Brown to throw it in an obvious passing down, and then punt. This was particularly frustrating when the offense was running this with a hurt AJ Dillon who couldn't really shake defenders, leading to more of these situations BC couldn't convert. 

If those intermediate to longer situations are going to improve two things are going to need to happen. Addazio needs to stay aggressive on offense. When he got the offense clicking last year, it wasn't because he stuck with the physical run game, it was because he would keep defenses guessing with some play-action to a tight end, or an end-around, or trickery. He has the tools in his playbook, if he wants to get better he just needs to call them more often to keep defenses honest. Obviously he isn't going to shy away from handing the ball off, that is the bread and butter of his offensive philosophy, love it or hate it, but seasoning in those changes could drastically help.

The second piece and it will be further elaborated on later, is the development of Anthony Brown. Both Mike Bajakian and Steve Addazio have talked about how he needs to improve on his accuracy, and this will be something that clearly affects 3rd down conversions moving forward. 

It is actually miraculous that BC won seven games based on their low 3rd down conversion success rate. Most of the teams under them in the rankings were not bowl eligible. Clearly if they want to win more than seven games, this needs to be a point of emphasis and something that needs to improve in 2019.