Bold Predictions For Boston College's Offense
On Sunday, we looked at some predictions for Boston College's defense. Today let's look at the offense, a group that looks on paper to be ready for a big year. With talent up and down the depth chart, BC could put up some big numbers with this unit. Here are our predictions.
Boston College will average around 30 points a game
This may not seem like a huge jump from last year given the talent on this year's team. However, you have to look at the schedule. The Eagles have five games against teams that were in the Top 50 in total defense last year. On top of that last year's team had three out of conference games against poor defenses (Richmond, Kansas, Rutgers) compared to just one in 2020 (Texas State). By factoring in their schedule, and opponents, a modest increase from 29.0 last year to around 30.0 doesn't seem unreasonable.
In order to do that however.....
The Offense Will Put up More of a Fight Against Clemson/ND
When looking at Steve Addazio's offense during his tenure, there was a common theme. He built his attack to beat up on smaller teams and those with similar talent to his squad. However, when he ran into a team like Clemson and Notre Dame, teams loaded with talent, this strategy didn't work. He could try and wear them down with AJ Dillon, but the opposition could just cycle in fresh defenders and shut BC down. On top of that having teams filled with blue chippers stacking the box on every play wasn't a wise move, and crushed his rushing attack. Once all that happened, the wheels would come off in these games and teams like Clemson and ND would easily pull away
This failed strategy won't happen this year. Boston College can put together a balanced attack that will force defenses to defend against both the pass and the run. This should help tremendously against Top 25 teams. David Bailey will find more room, while Phil Jurkovec and his receivers will hopefully be able to pick up more first downs. Last year BC only scored 14 total points against Clemson and Notre Dame, this year I expect them to easily pass that mark.
David Bailey will rush for 1300 yards this season
Talking about balance, this should actually help the rushing attack. Bailey is going to be the feature back this year, and should be in for a big season. Having a quarterback who can move the ball with his feet and arm, should loosen up defenses, which in turn should give Bailey more room to work. On top of that, the offensive line is going to be one of the best in recent memory, and feature possible All Americans at four of the five positions. They won't be asked to block 8-9 defenders cheating in the box. All of these factors should lead to Bailey averaging just under 130 yards per game.
Phil Jurkovec will have a few bumps this year
Last week former Boston College LB Mark Herzlich said that Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec is the best BC quarterback since Matt Ryan. That is high praise, but we have to remember that Jurkovec will be heading into his first year as a starter. Think back to when Matt Ryan first started, if you are a Boston College fan, 2004 against Syracuse should still seered into your brain. While I don't expect Jurkovec to have that steep of a learning curve, he will make mistakes. This is part of having an offense that is more complex than a steady stream of runs. It may come from missing a read on the defense, forcing a ball in too tight of a window, or errant throws, but it will happen. The biggest factor should be how he bounces back from those mistakes.
However....
Expect Jurkovec to be the most exciting quarterback since Matt Ryan, and will win BC two games late
No offense to Chase Rettig, Anthony Brown & Tyler Murphy, but Jurkovec will end up being one of the most exciting playmakers in BC history. If you haven't watched any of the gifs on Twitter, you owe to yourself to see what kind of arm he has. And with weapons who can separate from defenders, he is going to make explosive plays. Zay Flowers in space is going to be such a matchup problem for defenses, that they are going to need to use safeties to bracket him. Doing that opens up other targets, who also are incredibly talented. And if those are all covered, Jurkovec at 250 pounds, who can move well, can run the ball for first downs.
All of these factors should lead to a big year for the first year starting quarterback. But what I think will be his biggest contributions will be late game heroics. With a balanced attack, BC no longer will be doomed (relying on a RB) if they fall behind late in the game. Jurkovec has this aura around him, a winning one, and expect him to pull off some magic near the end of games.
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